We often see various price targets for Bitcoin — be it $10k, $100k, $500k and even $1m per token! Now that we've broken the $100k mark, what do most analysts believe to be the next milestone for Bitcoin? In this article, I use Fibonacci retracements on Bitcoin's past halving cycles to explain why analysts believe that $170k may be a valid price target for the token.
The Bitcoin Halving
Every 4 years, the Bitcoin Halving occurs — a prescheduled event where the reward for mining and verifying new blocks is reduced by 50% and miners earn only half the number of $BTC per mined block. Scheduled to take place every 210,000 blocks, Bitcoin halvings continue until the network has produced the maximum total supply of 21 million BTC.
Halving Cycles and Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Now, many analysts observed a consistent trend from the first three halving cycles — during the cycles of 2012, 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin typically topped near the 3.618, 2.272, and 1.618 Fibonacci levels, and experts believe that the current cycle will be no exception. Assuming a "low" case where Bitcoin tops at the 1.618 Fibonacci level for the current halving cycle (which commenced on April 20, 2024), the token still has quite some upside to go — all the way till about $170k per coin, to be exact. In addition, based on past cycles, it can take anywhere from 8 to 11 months from the most recent halving for Bitcoin to reach its cycle peak. This means we have till September 2025 to see if Bitcoin can sustain this impressive trend.
Why You Shouldn't Rush In Just Yet
Now, don't rush in just yet. This article itself does not guarantee that Bitcoin will reach $170k during the current halving cycle. It's imperative to note that there have only been three full halving cycles so far, so the accuracy of any statistical analysis done can be dubious. In addition, what's true in the past is not necessarily true in the future. As such, it's always important to understand your risk tolerance before placing any funds in cryptocurrency tokens.
Valuation Conundrum
I would also like to remind readers that this analysis is purely based on technicals. Saying that Bitcoin can reach $170k per coin based on technical analysis is completely different from saying that Bitcoin's true worth is $170k per coin — the former can be observed using tools, patterns and statistics, but the latter is almost impossible to justify due to the speculative nature of cryptocurrency token prices in general, with no reliable way to determine their intrinsic values.
A Final Word
Cryptocurrency investments are often a double-edged sword — with close to unrivalled upside potential but also a significantly higher probability of losing a substantial amount of funds. Risk management is of utmost importance when it comes to the crypto market. From determining how much to allocate to crypto or crypto-related assets, to observing various technical indicators for the relevant tokens, to determining an appropriate take-profit and stop-loss, trading cryptocurrency tokens is not a straightforward process. As such, do not let the $170k price target entice you to a point where you forget to do your own due diligence. Nobody really knows where Bitcoin prices will be in the next few months, but we can do our best to make educated guesses.