Greetings from Inflation Week
We've entered a week where additional volatility is expected. A busy week awaits us. We can say this inflation data will influence upcoming interest rate decisions. Throughout the week, there will be important news and data. You can see the details below. FTX announced that repayments will begin on February 18th with a 20.5% interest rate. Additionally, Trump announced he will sign Executive Orders at 1 PM ET.
Weekly Important Events and News (GMT +3):
Monday 19:15 - ECB President Lagarde speech
Tuesday 15:15 - BoE Governor Bailey Speaking - 18:00 Fed's Chair Powell testifies
Wednesday 16:30 - US CPI / Core CPI YoY & MoM
Thursday 16:30 - US PPI & US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday 13:00 - Eurozone GDP YoY/QoQ Flash Estimate - 17:15 US Industrial Production MoM
*Various ECB Speakers throughout the week
Bitcoin
BTC, with February's weekly implied volatility of 14.9%, realized an 11.3% movement. We generally saw continuous up and down price movement. Currently testing last week's opening price. We can assume there's a waiting period, likely due to news expectations. While February's implied volatility is 34.2%, we've seen a 10.9% movement in 10 days.
We can define this week's implied volatility range between 82k and 111k. Due to price compression, the upcoming movement is likely to be rapid. I don't think the price will drop much below 94k. I expect the next movement to be towards the 113-115k region and am positioning accordingly.
Max Pain level has retreated to 100k since last week. We see many orders increasing in this region. While it might act as resistance, I believe the main resistance is at 104k. I think 104k and 108k will be our primary resistance levels. Therefore, 107k contracts until month-end look very reasonable from these levels.
Ethereum
Although ETH quickly recovered after this week's sharp decline, movements have slowed but remain more volatile than BTC. It closed weekly volatility above implied at 28.1%. ETH, which filled 75% of its monthly 48.5% implied volatility in the first week, might close this way without going below 2100 or above monthly opening.
With weekly implied volatility at 19.1%, we can base our price range between 2125 and 3125. While price slowdown after sharp movement is normal, we can say ETH typically increases its movement after such periods. I think we might see another movement towards the 2300 region, followed by an upward price direction. The blue box region (2800-2850) might work as our first resistance. My expected main resistance is at 3200 and the Monthly opening level.
We see the max pain price has retreated here as well. However, unlike BTC, the Put/Call Ratio has decreased to 0.53. This is a positive development, showing the market expects more upside. Although Funding Rate is negative, this suggests the decline might continue a bit longer but ultimately is a positive development. Against my upward position in BTC, I have downward contracts in ETH. I plan to close when price pulls back to 2300 and take upward positions.
ETHBTC
Although holding above 0.026 support, I expect another movement towards the lower wick. It needs to make a movement towards 0.025 and get a good reaction. We need to see a bottom structure from these levels now, as going lower would bring the 0.022 region.
#BTCvsInflation #LTC&XRPETFsNext? #BTCNextATH? #cpi #BitcoinWhaleMove
