① Why is this cycle so difficult? In the past two large-scale altcoin cycles, most currencies experienced a 90-95% plunge. The collapse of Luna and FTX exacerbated the chain reaction in the industry, and the market fell more severely than expected. A large number of heavyweight players were liquidated, and the crypto lending platform has not yet recovered. In this cycle, the trading pattern of the altcoin market largely reflects a mainstream view that all projects are scams. In the past two rounds of crypto market cycles, people generally believed that "this technology represents the future." But in the current cycle, this belief has been greatly weakened or even destroyed, and many people no longer believe in the long-term prospects of the crypto industry. On the contrary, the view that "everything is a scam" has become one of the mainstream cognitions. No one dares to hold any assets for a long time because they don't want to experience the pain of asset halving or even zeroing out again. This has led to an extreme "cutting leeks cycle", that is, everyone wants to rush ahead and treat others as a receiver. These social media have exacerbated this emotional trading, and market participants are looking for the top of the cycle every day, causing market sentiment to fluctuate more violently. This psychological impact is not only reflected in trading behavior, it also affects the construction and investment methods of the entire ecosystem. For example, projects face stricter scrutiny and the trust threshold is greatly increased. This has a dual impact. On the one hand, it helps to screen out obvious scams. But on the other hand, it also makes it more difficult for truly valuable projects to gain attention and development opportunities. That's all I have to say for now. In short, it is indeed, definitely, difficult.
② Is there no hope for the short-term big coin? Continuing yesterday's thought, I clearly stated that the area of [96200-97000] is quite critical, and a rebound is expected here, so manage accordingly. If it breaks down, a second probe will come, but whether it will be a lower probe or a new low cannot be determined. From this moment on, there is still a possibility and tendency for the price to retest the [96200-97000] range, and if it breaks down, it won't be good. If the adjustment doesn’t break and continues to rise, then the bulls may regain the initiative, leading to a longer and larger rebound. However, once it breaks down effectively, effective support turns into effective resistance, which may lead to a significant drop in prices, definitely heading towards 95000 and below. As for how low it can go, it cannot be determined; it all depends on the major player's sentiment.
③ How should short-term trading be done appropriately? At the current position, it can rise or fall, with equal probabilities for going long or short. From the market's perspective, it is showing a bearish oscillation, unless the price breaks through 99000 in one go, then we can cautiously be optimistic about going long. Under this premise, set a stop loss based on key resistance and arrange short positions on slight rebounds. If the price plunges straight down, pay attention to the line around 95000.#比特币国家战略储备 
