In 2017, it was the era of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), where public financings directly replaced venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE), so the bull market of 2017-2018 belonged to the initial investors, and benefited the participants who got shares in these operations. Anyone who managed to get a share could make a profit.
In 2021, Decentralized Finance (DeFi) projects emerged and the market began to diversify significantly. At that time, it was possible to easily profit by speculating on small-value coins and withdraw quickly.
During the IEO period, it was possible to negotiate with project teams to allocate a portion of the stakes to users, which often made the launch prices low. Hence, the prevailing slogan was “buy new, don’t care about old.”
But now, ICOs are seen as legally risky in most countries, so these operations have turned into airdrops with prices determined by the market. This means that if the trading volume is large and the launch price is low, the project’s performance will be relatively stable. For example, projects like BB and Lista, however, compared to 2021, the rapid rises lack a sufficient correction process.
In 2024, the bull run was driven by the launch of Bitcoin ETFs. At this point, the smart money was being run by big projects and groups that specialize in making quick profits. These groups worked together to create attractive data for the market.
On the one hand, project owners were able to raise more money from venture capital (VC) investors, especially since the big investors in the market manage funds exceeding billions, which raised the valuation of good projects. On the other hand, large projects now have a large number of users, so it is no longer important to list them on specific platforms, as there are many centralized exchanges (CEX) that want to list them, and if that does not happen, there are decentralized exchanges (DEX), and if they are not available, they can use their own platforms.
Trading platforms no longer control prices, so when dealing with highly rated projects, investors should look at the fundamentals and not just the market value, and preferably also look at the free float ratio.
Even today, the market has changed again. The wars between L2 groups and projects have turned into an absurd drama, and it seems that the era of L2 may be over. Currently, whether in the primary or secondary market, there are more professional players using risk management tools. This has led to the expansion of the market, but for the average investor, the strategies of 2017 such as ICO, 2021 such as IEO or scalping, and even the L2 strategies of 2023, may not be suitable for the current market.
Could the market be healthier with less VC investment and fewer projects? Every market cycle brings out projects that can weather the volatility and survive, while great projects fall along the way. Whether in Web2 or Web3, project success is rare, and projects that cross timelines and economic cycles are rare.
