Macro influences the world, and logic deduces the future.
We cannot accurately predict the future, but we can make vague inferences based on limited knowledge.
1. 2025 will be the year of the crazy bull market for cryptocurrencies.
After the bull market locomotive SUI hits a historical high and doubles, SOL and BNB show average performance after reaching historical highs, and ETH has not yet reached a historical high. The bull market for Bitcoin will not stop at 105,000; my personal subjective expectation is that it will peak at 180,000 to 200,000 USD. SUI will peak around 20, SOL around 800, and ETH around 12,000 to 25,000.
2. 2025 will be the year when Bitcoin becomes a strategic reserve asset.
The demand for strategic reserves comes from: global large companies and national sovereign funds.
Don't ask how the big pie should perform, the real question is what are the strategic intentions of the tycoons?
From the perspective of monetary standards: barter has three attributes: use value, consensus value, and value certificate; fiat currency eliminates use value, leaving only consensus value and value certificate. Bitcoin is only a value certificate, and consensus is decentralized, with no risk of bankruptcy or destruction.
If Facebook had released its own stablecoin back then, it would have actually obtained part of the central bank's minting rights;
This strategic reserve is akin to a new subdivision of central banks emerging in the world, where everyone is scrambling to buy original shares, which is a strategic control issue.
3. Europe and America are moving to the right, with long-term risks.
And Brother Rong is talking nonsense:
From an economic perspective, the world is gradually accelerating.
Wealth in the agricultural era comes from nature's gifts, plus the real output of labor. No matter if the tools are stone or iron, a hoe is just a hoe; there is nothing virtual, much less leverage.
After the industrial society, the creation of a large number of tools improved production efficiency, breakthroughs in basic technology triggered industrial revolutions, regardless of which industrial/industrial revolution it is, there is a cyclical fate: the widespread application of technology leads to development stagnation, while capacity gradually shifts from insufficient to excess.
This process may not fully instrument individuals but could also be node-based or hub-based. The higher up you go, the higher the concentration of wealth and power.
In an industrial society, production, consumption, reinvestment, and reproduction is an ideal virtuous cycle.
The reality is that after the increase in the application of basic technology, the bottleneck, and industrial capital may not reinvest, financial capital seeking quick and efficient investments may not necessarily flow to industrial capital. Especially under the background of globalization, the flow of financial capital towards offshore tax havens poses a real capital accumulation rate problem for manufacturing countries.
As a result, resources are increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few, who may be entrepreneurs, financiers, or elites.
At this point, class emerges.
All countries involved in industrialization around the world are facing the same problem:
Class contradictions, overcapacity, unfair division of labor, and the reality of industrial upgrading; particularly the latter is the main contradiction between China and the United States in the economic field at this stage.
Class contradictions will inevitably lead to an internal ideological shift to the right, as most people only possess instrumental attributes, without node or hub attributes.
To the right, there is a pursuit of fairness, nationalism, and a pursuit of collective extremism;
Historically, there have been three solutions to the class contradictions and overcapacity issues in the world:
The fascism of Germany and Japan ended in failure.
The Soviet Union's state capitalism sought internally to eliminate oligarchs, eliminate the wealthy, and pursue collectivism. Ideology, system, and path all shifted entirely to the left.
American Keynesianism borrows money from its future self, continuously issues national debt, gives money to the public, and raises wages. This increases consumption demand from the consumer side, promoting the continuation of the production-consumption cycle.
Of course, he also goes out to rob; after World War II, it has mostly been about beating up the little guys.
US debt cannot be endlessly issued; there will always be a time when interest cannot be paid. Then, industrial upgrades lead humanity to the light of technology, which is a struggle with potential competitors. Internally seeking to eliminate oligarchs, the American empire does not have a red gene. The collective rightward turn's inability to solve underlying issues means robbery is an inevitable option.
Understanding Wang's decoupling and chain-breaking trade war is indeed gentle, but what is the pricing logic of the trade war? It is the correlation pricing trend of the US dollar index.
Europe has already seen the rise of the right; there is no need to elaborate on the pros and cons.
Europe and America are moving to the right, with long-term risks of S3.
4. The Americans seek to bring manufacturing back, which will bring medium-term benefits.
If the manufacturing industry wants to sweep the world, there is one word: good quality and low price. Low prices come from three directions: low costs, low taxes, or even tax subsidies, and low exchange rates. Low costs are almost unrealistic for the Americans, tax issues may have opposition from the opposition party, and low exchange rates are quite realistic, especially since the Americans are currently in a loose cycle, significantly lowering interest rates and promoting low actual interest rates and low exchange rates for the US dollar.
Simple common sense: the looser the monetary policy, the more valuable risk assets become.
5. Second inflation may be the biggest black swan for cryptocurrency assets.
The external decoupling and chain-breaking trade war will inevitably raise the cost of imported goods. Once the tax rate accumulates to a certain level, the prices of goods will also rise accordingly, and the rebound of CPI is inevitable. If this process involves distributing money to the public, it will stage a super bull market like in 2020, but in the long run, it will fuel inflation, leading to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations being unmet, and even the interest rate cut cycle may abruptly stop. Then, it will be another bloody storm.
6. The alarm for the European debt crisis has sounded again.
France's ten-year treasury yields approach 2.99%; French bonds are considered among the safest government bonds, yet they yield comparably to the current golden pig four nations' treasury yields. The fundamental reason is that France's deficit rate has reached 6%, while the European average is 3%, and France has been placed on the EU's fiscal deficit blacklist. To reduce the deficit, a new budget proposal for 2025 is being pushed, attempting to significantly increase taxes on electricity. This budget proposal faces significant resistance; if it cannot pass, France may face technical financial bankruptcy, potentially triggering another European debt crisis, but this time it may start from the leader of Europe. An interesting point is that the entire increase in energy costs in Europe is due to the Russia-Ukraine war; so why does Europe continue to support Ukraine? Is it to procure expensive natural gas from a big brother?
7. Yen interest rate hikes are inevitable; unexpected rate hikes are like a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor.
Japan's CPI continues to rise, and the market expects the probability of a yen interest rate hike in December 2024 to exceed half. If the new Japanese administration pursues monetary policy normalization in 2025 (which is also the new prime minister's proposition), the yen may undergo an unexpected rate hike. Based on the yen's arbitrage currency characteristics, funds through yen arbitrage will actively reduce leverage, leading to indiscriminate selling pressure on related arbitrage assets.
8. Minor bulls will occur every year, at least until 2028.
This point belongs to the act of carving a boat to seek a sword; cryptocurrency may replicate the long bull market after the gold ETF. If cryptocurrency assets surge again by the end of 2025, this viewpoint will be empirically validated.
9. A super bull market may occur after a crisis.
In summary, combining 5, 6, and 7, there is a high probability of an economic crisis occurring in the third to fourth quarter of 2025. Historically, after the Federal Reserve's defensive rate cuts fail, a crisis usually occurs within 6 to 24 months. When a crisis happens, monetary authorities will inevitably intervene to rescue the market, which will expand the balance sheets of the crisis authorities' central banks. If the crisis occurs in major economies, the capital market will welcome a joint rescue from major global central banks, with all central banks working together, causing the value of cryptocurrency assets to rise.
10. The above belongs to Brother Shang's subjective macro cognition about the pricing factors related to the cryptocurrency market in 2025, and should not be considered as investment advice.
In terms of trading, the strategic national policies between major powers correspond to the pricing logic of capital markets, and arbitrage opportunities are the most important factors in trend trading.
What is called macro is nothing more than this.
