As the understanding of the upper position time extends, there has not been a timely release of sufficient favorable cryptocurrency policies, causing the market to fluctuate at high levels.

Altcoins are suffering; some leading sectors have dropped tenfold or more, while retail investors are shouting that cryptocurrency is over.

This is the reason W3 mentioned being cautious about bottom fishing: the overall direction is unclear.

What stage is the bull market currently in?

Generalizing can lead to abstraction!

The peak value of Bitcoin in 2025 is still expected to be between $180,000 and $200,000.

If you ask about Bitcoin's bull market phase, it is in the midst of a bull market.

If you ask about altcoins, clearly 2-4 months is a round of crazy bull market, with CEX ranging from 5 to 100 times, from on-chain to CEX ranging from 5 to ten thousand times.

Is there a bull market phase on-chain? No, it can be quick by several minutes or slow by a week or two. When encountering a hot speculative product, it can lead to a violent pricing period of 2-4 months for altcoins.

If Time * Volatility = Market Cap Volume

Regardless of the rise or fall, if one is large, the other doesn't need to be that large.

The market has been grinding for half a year, but now many leading assets have dropped significantly in one and a half months, surpassing the declines seen in the first half of 2023.

Perhaps it won't grind for too long.

Even if it turns bearish, there will still be rebounds.

However, if it turns bearish, even a rebound is an escape opportunity, as last week's Non-Farm Payroll report indicated.

Futures have a gap at 715-860.
Gaps in the long cycle usually get filled.

The previous high is at 74,000. If it drops near this level, it would be a standard bull market pullback, and logically, the closer it gets, the more one should gradually enter.

There are two major favorable factors that can break the current trend:
Macroeconomic perspective: expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are reinforcing the potential for rate cuts.

Policy perspective: Strategic reserve expectations are starting to be speculated (similar to expectations for Bitcoin spot ETFs);

Expectations regarding the Federal Reserve are quite challenging.
Next FOMC meeting's key chart will show the Federal Reserve officials' changing intentions.

Strategic reserves, some states in the U.S. are legislating to promote it.

The fastest federal legislative progress is expected by 2026.
An executive order can be implemented within 25 years, and it will take about half a year to land.

The tariff pricing impact of the understanding king on risk assets is significant, especially for indiscriminately adding tariffs on all GJ:

Simply put:

This will increase the risk of a second inflation in the U.S., which is not conducive to reinforcing the strength of interest rate cuts, and in extreme cases, could trigger a market crash (JRWJ);

Raising Japan's import inflation strengthens the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes, gradually pushing towards normalizing interest rate policies, and reinforcing the withdrawal of arbitrage funds.

However, it is impossible to predict when the understanding king will take action.

This has also added a degree of randomness to market volatility due to policies.

Without a certain direction/opportunity, heavy positions are not advisable.

When the market has no opportunities, invest more in research and wait for the next alpha.