According to ChainCatcher, the French Foreign Trade Bank stated that if the EU and the United States have not reached an agreement by August 1, the EU will take the first round of countermeasures. Additionally, the European Commission is also developing a second set of countermeasures.
Previous forecasts indicated that a 20% tariff on all goods by the United States, met with equivalent retaliation from the EU, is expected to lower the Eurozone's GDP annual growth rate by 0.4 percentage points in 2025 and 2026, respectively. If the tariffs are raised to 30%, the losses would be more significant, with a decrease of about 0.5 percentage points in 2025 and about 0.6 percentage points in 2026.
The French Foreign Trade Bank believes that, although the likelihood is low, there is still a chance for successful negotiations before August 1; otherwise, the 'deadline' may be postponed again.
