According to Deep Tide TechFlow, on July 14, Barclays analysts stated that the United States threatens to impose a 30% tariff on the European Union, which could test the resilience of the U.S. stock market. If the EU retaliates and an economic recession occurs, the stock market could experience a double-digit decline.
Analysts warn that a full-blown trade war could lead to a 'D-Day' crash, with cyclical and financial stocks performing poorly, and summer liquidity shortages exacerbating the situation. Analysts are skeptical about high tariffs, believing that Trump's tolerance for pressure on the stock and bond markets is limited, which may restrict tariff levels on major trading partners.