Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded 8% from its March 11 low of $76,703, driven by large investors aggressively accumulating BTC with leverage. As macro liquidity conditions shift and regulatory clarity improves, Bitcoin could be on track to surpass $105,000 by May 2025.
Key Factors Driving Bitcoin’s Price Forecast
1. Institutional Leverage and Margin Longs Surge
This bullish leveraged positioning suggests confidence in BTC’s upside potential despite recent volatility.
Historically, such positions have preceded strong rallies, as seen in September 2024, when a similar strategy led to a Bitcoin surge from $50,000 to $75,000 within two months.
2. Correlation Between Bitcoin and Global Money Supply (M2)
Bitcoin’s price has shown an 82% correlation with the M2 money supply, according to analyst Pakpakchicken.
If central banks ease monetary policy amid recession concerns, increased liquidity could fuel further BTC price appreciation.
Periods of monetary tightening have historically reduced risk appetite, while liquidity expansion has pushed Bitcoin to new highs.
3. Strategy’s $21 Billion Bitcoin Accumulation Plan
Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) aims to raise $21 billion to purchase more Bitcoin, reinforcing institutional demand for BTC.
Strategy remains the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, with 499,096 BTC acquired at $33.1 billion.
This move could offset $4.1 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows seen since February 24.
4. U.S. Crypto Regulation and Market Structure Improvements
Donald Trump’s administration is reportedly in talks about acquiring a stake in Binance, signaling a potential policy shift.
The SEC is reviewing requests for in-kind ETF creations and redemptions, which would improve ETF liquidity and reduce price premiums.
The Acting SEC Chairman Mark Uyeda has proposed removing crypto-specific restrictions from certain regulatory provisions, suggesting a more favorable stance toward digital assets.
Bitcoin’s Path to $105K: Key Catalysts
Despite short-term volatility, BTC could reach $105,000 by May 2025 if the following trends continue:
- Increased M2 liquidity through central bank stimulus.
- Sustained accumulation by whales and institutional players like Strategy.
- ETF rule changes and regulatory clarity, improving market efficiency.
- Bullish sentiment from leveraged traders, signaling confidence in higher price levels.
With growing macroeconomic uncertainty and a shift in regulatory outlook, Bitcoin appears poised for another six-figure rally, making $105,000 a realistic target in the coming months, according to Cointelegraph.
