📰 What’s Going On Today
1. Fed Holds Rates,
$BTC Markets Mull Future Outlook
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25–4.50% during its July 30 meeting— the fifth straight hold since December—highlighting a cautious "wait-and-see" approach. Two governors (Bowman & Waller) dissented, favoring immediate cuts due to softening job data.
Jerome Powell emphasized that no decisions have been made on rate cuts leading into September, with future moves strictly data‑driven.
2. Crypto Market Reaction
Bitcoin has slightly drifted downward, trading near $112,960, reflecting muted investor sentiment as traders recalibrate around postponed rate cuts.
Risk appetite remains cautious—altcoins have shown mixed performance, partly due to rising tariff-driven inflation worries and macro volatility.
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🔍 Why It Matters
Rate cut odds have dropped to ~43–47% for September, previously above 60%, as Powell stressed inflation concerns tied to tariffs.
The labor market is cooling—July non-farm payrolls rose only ~73,000, with unemployment ticking up to 4.2%, feeding debate among Fed governors.
Trump escalated pressure—criticizing Powell for maintaining high rates and calling him a “stubborn MORON” on Truth Social, which briefly spiked risk sentiment before calming.
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📈 Where Bitcoin Stands
Current Price Zone: Bitcoin is holding between $112K and $113K, near recent consolidation highs from May-July.
Resistance sits closer to $118K–$120K; any breakout likely needs a dovish pivot or positive data surprise.
Support lies around $112K, then $110K—breach of these zones could lead to deeper pullback territory.
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🔮 What’s Next: Catalysts & Outlook
Key Developments to Monitor:
August/Sep economic data: Especially core PCE inflation, CPI and employment stats—weakness could boost rate cut odds.
Fed commentary: Powell’s remarks in coming weeks (e.g. Jackson Hole address) may provide fresh direction.
Digital asset policy updates: A favorable regulatory environment could re-energize investor sentiment.
Scenario-Ready Tactics:
Scenario Expected BTC Behavior Key Trigger
Inflation cools BTC rises toward $118K–$120K Lower PCE/CPI readings
Data remains strong Bitcoin holds or slides towards $110K+ Robust job growth, inflation persistence
Regulatory boost Crypto rally, potential breakout higher Pro-crypto policy signal
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