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September Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Show Mild Job Growth as Data Vacuum Raises Market Sensitivity
The first U.S. nonfarm payrolls report since the prolonged government shutdown is scheduled for release tonight, and analysts broadly expect modest job growth amid mixed economic signals and heightened uncertainty.

Multiple institutions have weighed in on what to expect:
Rockefeller projects a 50,000 increase in September payrolls, indicating a relatively steady labor market despite recently weak data.
Indeed Hiring Lab expects little improvement, suggesting that the current labor softness is likely to persist.
Pantheon Macroeconomics warns that any downside surprise may be exaggerated, given the six-week data blackout caused by the shutdown.
A Reuters survey also forecasts a 50,000 rise, with economists expecting that August’s unusually weak numbers were distorted by seasonal effects and could be revised upward.
Academic and institutional views also highlight deeper trends:
Loyola Marymount University identifies a clear slowdown but does not foresee the economy entering recession, expecting the labor market to remain subdued.
Nationwide predicts a 40,000–50,000 increase, noting that companies appear to be in a "neutral" position — neither hiring aggressively nor laying off workers.
Credit Agricole sees a 55,000 gain with unemployment at 4.3%, describing the market as cooling at a controlled pace, with both low hiring and low layoffs.
Standard Chartered expects very weak employment data from September through November, citing minimal seasonal hiring and unusually high layoffs — a trend that could nudge Federal Reserve moderates toward rate cuts.
Some institutions expect stronger numbers, while others highlight risks:
Goldman Sachs forecasts an 80,000 increase with 4.3% unemployment, but cautions that October — still unreleased — may show a 50,000 decline.
Union Bank projects around 40,000, believing the market response may be limited due to ample private-sector data already available.
Consulting firm RSM expects September — along with July and August revisions — to present a slightly more positive picture than consensus, though still reflecting an economy under pressure.
Overall, the market consensus anticipates a 50,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls and a 4.3% unemployment rate, pointing to a labor market that is slowing — but not collapsing.
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has officially cancelled the October 2025 jobs report, citing incomplete data collection after the government shutdown.

📊 The unemployment and labor market data will now be merged into the November report, leaving a critical gap in current economic visibility.

⚠️ Market Implication:

With key employment data missing, the uncertainty around the U.S. economy increases, putting extra pressure on risk assets — including crypto.

#USLabor #USLaborMarket

In 2025, the rising unemployment rate among Americans under 25, specifically recent graduates, has become a significant economic concern. This problem seems to be uniquely American, stemming from a "no hire, no fire" economy, rather than the advent of artificial intelligence (AI).
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is worried about the current labor market. He pointed out that young college graduates, minorities, and younger people are struggling more to find jobs.
Powell underscored the low job finding rate and redundancy rate, signifying a "low firing, low hiring environment."
While AI has often been accused of disrupting entry-level positions, Powell proposed that a slowed economy and hiring restraint are the main culprits. This perspective was backed up by leading economists at Goldman Sachs and UBS, reports Fortune.
UBS chief economist Paul Donovan contended that the surge in U.S. youth unemployment is contrary to global trends and cannot be solely credited to AI.
He proposed that the U.S. labor market is unique, with the main problem being a broader hiring freeze that affects new workforce entrants.
Goldman Sachs economist Pierfrancesco Mei told Fortune that job reallocation has been on the decline since the late 1990s.
He stated that almost all job changes are occurring as "churn," which primarily affects younger workers. As of 2025, churn was significantly below pre-pandemic levels.
Donovan also noted that less educated workers are less impacted, with high school dropouts securing full-time employment at a younger age than recent grads.
This trend indicates a shift towards trade employment, especially among blue-collar entrepreneurs.
The consequences for Gen Z and minority jobseekers are severe, with experts cautioning about enduring damage to earnings, homeownership prospects, and wealth accumulation.
Powell also noted that stricter immigration measures are decreasing the labor supply, further intensifying the problem.

👉 Will Gen Z face a permanent setback in wealth and opportunity, or is this a temporary labor market shock?
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