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⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️#BTC and the behavior of short-term holders (STH)
The recent correction below $80,000 seriously scared short-term holders.
Despite Bitcoin's resilience above $100K in recent weeks, the net position of STH has sharply turned negative — the accumulated change is already -833,000 BTC.
We are approaching outflow levels that were observed during the last dip.
This indicates that STH have become much more sensitive to price movements, and even a slight pullback to $100K has triggered a new wave of fear.
If pressure from STH increases — the market may be vulnerable to new corrections.
If they stabilize — it will be a positive signal for continued growth.
We are closely monitoring the behavior of this group — right now, this is one of the key indicators for short-term trading.
$BTC
#btc #sth
The recent correction below $80,000 seriously scared short-term holders.
Despite Bitcoin's resilience above $100K in recent weeks, the net position of STH has sharply turned negative — the accumulated change is already -833,000 BTC.
We are approaching outflow levels that were observed during the last dip.
This indicates that STH have become much more sensitive to price movements, and even a slight pullback to $100K has triggered a new wave of fear.
If pressure from STH increases — the market may be vulnerable to new corrections.
If they stabilize — it will be a positive signal for continued growth.
We are closely monitoring the behavior of this group — right now, this is one of the key indicators for short-term trading.
$BTC
#btc #sth
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Bitcoin price stabilizes at $84,000 and indicators suggest a potential correction!
Bitcoin continues to trade at the $84,000 level since last week without significant fluctuations, in stark contrast to the sharp movements the market experienced earlier.
However, its current stability may just be the calm before a new wave of upcoming volatility.
Whale Activity:
Whales play a pivotal role in the cryptocurrency market, as they hold large stakes that can lead to strong fluctuations when buying or selling in large quantities.
According to “CryptoQuant” data, the percentage of Bitcoin flows from whales to trading platforms has risen to unprecedented levels since last year, indicating a potential redistribution of assets by major investors, which is a sign of imminent selling pressure.
Meanwhile, the “Glassnode” platform indicated that short-term investors (STH) currently hold assets worth $7 billion at a loss, marking the largest sustained loss during this bullish cycle.
Although the current phase is still within the bullish market range, it could lead to further declines if these investors decide to liquidate their assets, especially as prices continue to remain in a consolidation range.
The question currently posed:
Are we witnessing an upcoming correction in Bitcoin's price, or will the market maintain its upward momentum?
#bitcoin #btc #CryptoQuant
#Glassnode #sth
$BTC
Bitcoin continues to trade at the $84,000 level since last week without significant fluctuations, in stark contrast to the sharp movements the market experienced earlier.
However, its current stability may just be the calm before a new wave of upcoming volatility.
Whale Activity:
Whales play a pivotal role in the cryptocurrency market, as they hold large stakes that can lead to strong fluctuations when buying or selling in large quantities.
According to “CryptoQuant” data, the percentage of Bitcoin flows from whales to trading platforms has risen to unprecedented levels since last year, indicating a potential redistribution of assets by major investors, which is a sign of imminent selling pressure.
Meanwhile, the “Glassnode” platform indicated that short-term investors (STH) currently hold assets worth $7 billion at a loss, marking the largest sustained loss during this bullish cycle.
Although the current phase is still within the bullish market range, it could lead to further declines if these investors decide to liquidate their assets, especially as prices continue to remain in a consolidation range.
The question currently posed:
Are we witnessing an upcoming correction in Bitcoin's price, or will the market maintain its upward momentum?
#bitcoin #btc #CryptoQuant
#Glassnode #sth
$BTC
🚨 Short-Term Holder profit-taking is surging (+3σ above avg)...
📊 But historically, real market tops come around +5σ.
📢 We're elevated — not exhausted.
🚀 This rally might still have legs. Don’t fade it yet.
$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin #STH #OnChainData
📊 But historically, real market tops come around +5σ.
📢 We're elevated — not exhausted.
🚀 This rally might still have legs. Don’t fade it yet.
$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin #STH #OnChainData
Is This the Final Shakeout Before Bitcoin’s Next Big Move? Analysts Break It Down
#Bitcoin’s recent price action has shown signs of stagnation, with the asset hovering around the $84,000 mark after rebounding above it earlier this week. As of the time of writing, #BTC is trading at $84,449, down 0.7% in the past 24 hours.
Despite recovering from previous corrections, the price has struggled to break through the current resistance level, signaling weak buying momentum and cautious sentiment among traders.
#Bitcoin #STH -#SOPR and Realized Price Indicate Capitulation
The current phase of consolidation follows weeks of volatile swings driven by broader macroeconomic uncertainty and mixed signals across risk assets.
While long-term holders remain steady, short-term participants in the market appear to be under pressure. Insights into the behavior of these short-term holders may offer valuable clues on the overall direction of the market and possible entry or exit points for investors.
According to a recent analysis shared by CryptoQuant contributor CryptoMe, data from short-term holders (STHs) reveals key indicators that could help define Bitcoin’s current cycle.
The first metric highlighted is the STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), which measures whether STHs are selling at a profit (above 1.0) or at a loss (below 1.0).
STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR). | Source: CryptoQuant
Currently, this metric is below 1.0 based on a 14-day moving average, indicating that many STHs are offloading BTC at a loss—a signal often associated with capitulation phases.
While this suggests bearish sentiment in the short term, CryptoMe points out that similar dips in STH-SOPR during past bull markets often presented accumulation opportunities.
Historically, these periods of loss-taking by STHs have marked temporary bottoms, with prices rebounding shortly after as stronger hands absorb supply.
Accumulation Opportunities and Strategy Outlook
Another key metric shared is the STH Realized Price, currently around $92,000. This figure represents the average cost basis for coins held by short-term investors.
Bitcoin STH Realized Price. | Source: CryptoQuant
When $BTC trades below this level, it can indicate undervaluation relative to recent buyer activity. In CryptoMe’s view, red zones (in the chart), periods when the spot price dips below the realized price, have often coincided with long-term accumulation zones during previous bullish phases.
However, CryptoMe cautions that these indicators do not confirm a market bottom. Instead, they suggest that some investors are exiting positions under stress, creating potential buying opportunities for those with a long-term outlook.
Given the broader macroeconomic pressures, the analyst maintains a hedged strategy: accumulating in spot markets while maintaining short positions in derivatives to manage downside risk.
He concludes by stating that if macroeconomic conditions improve and liquidity returns to the market, Bitcoin could resume its upward trajectory. Until then, the data suggests patience and risk management may be prudent for market participants awaiting a clearer trend reversal.
BTC price is moving upwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com
Despite recovering from previous corrections, the price has struggled to break through the current resistance level, signaling weak buying momentum and cautious sentiment among traders.
#Bitcoin #STH -#SOPR and Realized Price Indicate Capitulation
The current phase of consolidation follows weeks of volatile swings driven by broader macroeconomic uncertainty and mixed signals across risk assets.
While long-term holders remain steady, short-term participants in the market appear to be under pressure. Insights into the behavior of these short-term holders may offer valuable clues on the overall direction of the market and possible entry or exit points for investors.
According to a recent analysis shared by CryptoQuant contributor CryptoMe, data from short-term holders (STHs) reveals key indicators that could help define Bitcoin’s current cycle.
The first metric highlighted is the STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), which measures whether STHs are selling at a profit (above 1.0) or at a loss (below 1.0).
STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR). | Source: CryptoQuant
Currently, this metric is below 1.0 based on a 14-day moving average, indicating that many STHs are offloading BTC at a loss—a signal often associated with capitulation phases.
While this suggests bearish sentiment in the short term, CryptoMe points out that similar dips in STH-SOPR during past bull markets often presented accumulation opportunities.
Historically, these periods of loss-taking by STHs have marked temporary bottoms, with prices rebounding shortly after as stronger hands absorb supply.
Accumulation Opportunities and Strategy Outlook
Another key metric shared is the STH Realized Price, currently around $92,000. This figure represents the average cost basis for coins held by short-term investors.
Bitcoin STH Realized Price. | Source: CryptoQuant
When $BTC trades below this level, it can indicate undervaluation relative to recent buyer activity. In CryptoMe’s view, red zones (in the chart), periods when the spot price dips below the realized price, have often coincided with long-term accumulation zones during previous bullish phases.
However, CryptoMe cautions that these indicators do not confirm a market bottom. Instead, they suggest that some investors are exiting positions under stress, creating potential buying opportunities for those with a long-term outlook.
Given the broader macroeconomic pressures, the analyst maintains a hedged strategy: accumulating in spot markets while maintaining short positions in derivatives to manage downside risk.
He concludes by stating that if macroeconomic conditions improve and liquidity returns to the market, Bitcoin could resume its upward trajectory. Until then, the data suggests patience and risk management may be prudent for market participants awaiting a clearer trend reversal.
BTC price is moving upwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com
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#STH Powell dealt the market a heavy blow again
At 1:30 AM today, Powell's speech at the Chicago Economic Club directly splashed cold water on the market that was hoping for monetary easing. Initially, everyone held onto a sliver of hope, thinking that even if he didn't explicitly adopt a dovish stance, he would at least say something soft. After all, just the day before, his colleague Waller hinted at 'possibly earlier and larger rate cuts.' What happened? Powell simply stated, 'Now is not the time to talk about rate cuts; we need to wait and see the situation.
What's even harsher is that when asked if the Federal Reserve would step in to rescue the market during a stock market crash (also known as the so-called 'Fed put'), his response was quite cold: 'Don’t expect the Fed to come to the rescue.' This makes it clear that until inflation is under control, don’t expect him to change course, even if the market is in pain.
To be honest, Powell's tough stance this time is a bit hard to understand. During the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, when Trump was in office, he didn’t hesitate to unleash monetary easing, engaging in unlimited QE. Now? It feels like he is determined to go against the market, even a bit amused by the White House's predicament.
As an old player in the crypto space, we need to be clear-headed—don’t expect a sudden policy shift to save the market. We should defend when necessary, don’t go all in too easily, and save some bullets for the real bottom. Sometimes, the most brutal times in the market are precisely when opportunities begin to brew, but the prerequisite is... you need to survive until then.
If anyone is confused due to market fluctuations, unsure how to deal with a trapped situation, or feels misled during the trading process, feel free to reach out!
At 1:30 AM today, Powell's speech at the Chicago Economic Club directly splashed cold water on the market that was hoping for monetary easing. Initially, everyone held onto a sliver of hope, thinking that even if he didn't explicitly adopt a dovish stance, he would at least say something soft. After all, just the day before, his colleague Waller hinted at 'possibly earlier and larger rate cuts.' What happened? Powell simply stated, 'Now is not the time to talk about rate cuts; we need to wait and see the situation.
What's even harsher is that when asked if the Federal Reserve would step in to rescue the market during a stock market crash (also known as the so-called 'Fed put'), his response was quite cold: 'Don’t expect the Fed to come to the rescue.' This makes it clear that until inflation is under control, don’t expect him to change course, even if the market is in pain.
To be honest, Powell's tough stance this time is a bit hard to understand. During the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, when Trump was in office, he didn’t hesitate to unleash monetary easing, engaging in unlimited QE. Now? It feels like he is determined to go against the market, even a bit amused by the White House's predicament.
As an old player in the crypto space, we need to be clear-headed—don’t expect a sudden policy shift to save the market. We should defend when necessary, don’t go all in too easily, and save some bullets for the real bottom. Sometimes, the most brutal times in the market are precisely when opportunities begin to brew, but the prerequisite is... you need to survive until then.
If anyone is confused due to market fluctuations, unsure how to deal with a trapped situation, or feels misled during the trading process, feel free to reach out!
📊 #STH Realized Profit Surges — But Still Room to Run
The magnitude of Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Profit has surged to nearly +3 standard deviations above its 90-day average — a clear signal of increased profit realization in the market.
🔍 What It Means:
Historically, during strong rallies approaching all-time highs, this metric has reached +5 SD or more, showing that:
We're seeing elevated profit-taking, but
Stronger selling pressure is usually needed to counter high demand in true breakout rallies
🔥 TL;DR: Profit-taking is picking up, but if this rally mirrors past cycles, there's still room for higher volatility and upside before exhaustion hits.
The magnitude of Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Profit has surged to nearly +3 standard deviations above its 90-day average — a clear signal of increased profit realization in the market.
🔍 What It Means:
Historically, during strong rallies approaching all-time highs, this metric has reached +5 SD or more, showing that:
We're seeing elevated profit-taking, but
Stronger selling pressure is usually needed to counter high demand in true breakout rallies
🔥 TL;DR: Profit-taking is picking up, but if this rally mirrors past cycles, there's still room for higher volatility and upside before exhaustion hits.
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The total outstanding options contract size across the network has risen to $64.8 billion, according to CoinAnk data, with CME increasing more than 300% compared to the low point of the 2024 cycle. The leverage utilization rate has not reached previous highs, indicating that this round of market activity is mainly driven by spot demand. The expansion of the options market reflects the urgent need for risk management among institutional investors, especially against the backdrop of intensified divergences in long and short strategies, where a large number of bullish options positions coexist with short hedging positions, potentially amplifying short-term price fluctuations.
Market indicators convey complex signals; the profit-taking ratio of short-term holders (05699307262 SOPR) has not yet reached historical frenzy levels, but the number of active addresses on-chain has rebounded, and the frequency of large transactions has increased, indicating that capital is being repositioned. Notably, a structural differentiation has emerged in the derivatives market—short futures positions have risen to 45%, an increase of 12 percentage points compared to the 2024 bull market, reflecting increased risk hedging willingness among institutional investors at high price levels. This intensification of long-short battles, combined with record-high open interest in the options market, suggests that the crypto market may be entering a period of high volatility. From a macro perspective, the anticipated shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy and geopolitical risks are prompting more funds to view Bitcoin as a hedge against the traditional financial system, and this positioning may reshape the valuation logic of digital assets.
Market indicators convey complex signals; the profit-taking ratio of short-term holders (05699307262 SOPR) has not yet reached historical frenzy levels, but the number of active addresses on-chain has rebounded, and the frequency of large transactions has increased, indicating that capital is being repositioned. Notably, a structural differentiation has emerged in the derivatives market—short futures positions have risen to 45%, an increase of 12 percentage points compared to the 2024 bull market, reflecting increased risk hedging willingness among institutional investors at high price levels. This intensification of long-short battles, combined with record-high open interest in the options market, suggests that the crypto market may be entering a period of high volatility. From a macro perspective, the anticipated shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy and geopolitical risks are prompting more funds to view Bitcoin as a hedge against the traditional financial system, and this positioning may reshape the valuation logic of digital assets.
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↗️ When the STH-SOPR enters the red zone, it usually indicates a good time to start selling and taking profits.
Although these signals do not always mark the exact peak of the market, in a general context they represent reasonable and appropriate moments to sell gradually.
#sth #SOPR #TrendingTopic #TradeStories #trading $USDC
Although these signals do not always mark the exact peak of the market, in a general context they represent reasonable and appropriate moments to sell gradually.
#sth #SOPR #TrendingTopic #TradeStories #trading $USDC
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