Altseason signal flashed!
While BTC holds $114.6K above key averages ahead of guaranteed rate cuts, alts are gearing up for a big move.
But it's not as simple as it seems.
Price & trend context:
• BTC $114,580
• 200d BPRO $111,280 | 200d SMA $102,089
• RSI 56 | ATR 2,680 | 50d vol 2,920
Above long-term trend; momentum moderate.
Shall we dive deeper?
Take a look at intraday structure:
• CTF (bear) stop $112,758 — being tested
• HTF (bull) stop $109,197
• Ranges: $114.6k–$115.6k (high) vs $109.4k–$110.4k (low)
Mixed bias; a daily hold >$115.6k implies a breakout.
Weekly structure:
• 50w SMA $96,863 | 200w SMA $52,532
• 7-week SPX correlation −0.222
Yes - BTC decoupled from equities for a moment, still above long-term supports.
Remember what it means?👀
Seasonality alert
Don't forget: September is historically BTC’s weakest month: avg −6.17% (annualized −55.17%).
Up +4.82% so far this month.
Not even halfway through and most volatile FOMC event is around the corner.
Don't get caught off guard.
Prepare for big chop.
ETF flows are positive (for now)
• Spot ETF 24h vol $3.87B | Net flow +$23M
• AUM $159.46B (IBIT $82.57B, FBTC $35.82B, GBTC $20.11B)
• Spot share 95.4%
Flows stabilizing near cycle-high AUM.
On-chain & miners
• Mining cost $98,597 (ratio 0.88)
• NUPL 0.534 | MVRV 2.25
• Fear & Greed 54
Miners profitable; no stress signals on-chain.
My personal concern is this NUPL (lower highs) vs Price divergence (higher highs).
Jobs revision shock
BLS overstatement of 911k jobs hit risk assets; crypto mkt cap fell ~$60B, BTC −1.8%.
Weaker labor data → higher cut odds → medium-term supportive for BTC liquidity.
Inflation numbers came in just now - read on.
CPI & PPI Inflation
Aug PPI 2.6% YoY (below 3.3% est); core 2.8% (vs 3.5%).
Lower pipeline inflation lifts risk appetite; BTC reclaimed $114K on the print.
August CPI inflation rises to 2.9%, Core CPI inflation rises to 3.1% - per expectations;
What does it mean? Well,
Fed cut is certain
CME FedWatch implies 100% chance of a 25 bp cut in September.
Easier policy lowers fiat yields and historically boosts BTC during easing cycles.
If we get more bps cut than expected, market can be positively surprised.
If market corrects, alts can shine.
What does it all mean for altcoins?
CMC Altcoin Season Index tracks top-100 vs BTC over 90 days.
A rising index = rotation to alts.
With BTC consolidating near $115K, monitor for altseason acceleration before the Q4 window.
It's about time!
Speaking of altcoins
We have achieved
More than +64% profit in second worst month.
If need 24/7 guidance and early signals, follow me
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Thanks for all kind comments.
God bless🧡
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