MacroEconomics

We are entering one of the most volatile periods of the year, with attention focused on a range of economic indicators and government developments that could reshape market trajectories, especially in the world of cryptocurrencies.

🔎 Here are the key upcoming events:

🗓️ July 30

📌 White House report on cryptocurrencies: This report could carry major surprises regarding the upcoming regulatory trends for digital assets.

Current BTC Market Overview:
Liquidation and Leverage Map shows that the majority of long position liquidations (red zone) occurred around the $119,500–$120,000 level. This is a key resistance area preventing a significant price surge. The cumulative short leverage is rising, indicating sellers are eager to keep the price down.

Binance Liquidation Map confirms a concentration of liquidations between $114,000 and $120,000, emphasizing the importance of this range.

Price Chart and Indicators (4h) indicate BTC has broken above $119,000 and is consolidating around $119,400–$120,000. The indicators (Stochastic, RSI) are in overbought territory — a slight pullback is possible.

Moving Averages (50 and 200 MA) show a bullish trend, with the price above both averages, signaling medium-term upside momentum.
21-day Rolling Volatility is slightly elevated but within average levels — the market is poised for impulsive moves.

Macro Outlook and News Highlights:

US JOLTs Job Openings (June) exceeded expectations at 7.769 million vs. 7.3 million forecast, signaling a strong labor market.
Eurozone GDP (QoQ, YoY) beat estimates with 0.6% QoQ and 1.5% YoY growth — a positive sign for global demand.
US GDP Preliminary Report is expected to show a -0.5% QoQ contraction, potentially pressuring equities and crypto.
Fed Rate Decision on July 30 will likely hold steady at 4.5%, but the Fed’s press conference may provide important forward guidance.
US Core PCE Price Index and Personal Income/Spending Data could show moderate inflation with weak income growth, adding some caution.
US Non-Farm Payrolls (Aug 1) expected to show job growth; unemployment rate slightly better than expected, which may reduce Fed’s pressure to ease.
Weekly Forecast:
BTC price is likely to find support around $117,000–$118,000 with attempts to break above $120,000. However, overbought indicators and strong resistance near 120k suggest a potential minor pullback before further upside.
Long liquidations near 120k may continue as many traders bet on continued rallies but could be shaken out in the short term.
Volatility is expected to increase around Fed news and the jobs report.
Macro signals are mixed: strong labor markets and Eurozone growth vs. US GDP contraction and cautious Fed.
Summary for Traders and Investors:
This week promises to be volatile for BTC. The key resistance at $120,000 remains a major battleground. Investors should prepare for possible pullbacks and liquidations at this level. Macro data and Fed decisions will set the tone, with a high likelihood of consolidation before the next major move.
#Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #BTCForecast #MarketUpdate #MacroEconomics

1️⃣. The FED and PCE Inflation Are Pressuring the Crypto Market
✅ On December 18th, during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, FED Chair Jerome Powell carried out the third interest rate cut of the year, as anticipated by the market. However, he also took a more hawkish stance on monetary policy for 2025. Due to signs of rising PCE inflation, the FED now plans to reduce interest rates only twice in 2025, instead of the four times previously expected.

✅ Financial markets immediately reacted negatively to this announcement, and the crypto market, being highly sensitive to macroeconomic factors, was no exception:
Bitcoin dropped from $108,000 to $92,000, losing over 15% of its value. Altcoins declined by an average of 20%-50%, with some returning to price levels seen when Bitcoin was below $60,000.

2️⃣. The Importance of Macroeconomic Factors for the Crypto Market
✅ Currently, the total market capitalization of crypto stands at $3.5 trillion, equivalent to the GDP of the United Kingdom. Although still small compared to the global capital markets, crypto’s current size means it cannot avoid being affected by global macroeconomic trends.

✅ The crypto market’s growth throughout 2024 was driven by a series of favorable conditions:
Improved global liquidity, reflected in the growth of the M2 money supply from major central banks.FED’s continuous rate cuts in 2024, providing conditions for capital flows into risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.Pro-Crypto policies from President Donald Trump, boosting confidence in the market.

✅ However, the current landscape is rapidly changing. The PCE inflation index – the FED’s preferred measure of inflation – is showing signs of rising again, while the FED’s tightening monetary policy remains in effect. The FED not only keeps interest rates high but is also withdrawing liquidity from the market by reducing its asset holdings (such as bonds) on its balance sheet. If inflation continues to rise sharply, the FED may even raise interest rates again, potentially accepting an economic crisis, as it has done in the past, to combat inflation.

3️⃣. PCE Inflation and the Future of the Crypto Market
✅ In a context of persistent inflation, crypto – which is considered a high-risk asset – will face significant challenges if the FED maintains high interest rates or raises them again:
Liquidity Drain: Higher capital costs will lead to reduced flows into risk assets.Declining Value: Bitcoin and altcoins will struggle to remain attractive as traditional assets like bonds become more appealing.Market Sentiment: Pessimism may spread if inflation spirals out of control, potentially triggering another crypto winter.

4️⃣. Strategies to Prepare for the Future
✅ For crypto investors, closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators is essential. Among them, the PCE inflation index in the United States is currently the most critical:
If PCE stabilizes or decreases, crypto can continue its long-term growth trend.If PCE rises sharply, prepare for a scenario of significant corrections, or even a prolonged crypto winter.

✅ Additionally, building a long-term strategy is crucial:
Diversify portfolios to reduce concentration risk in highly volatile altcoins.Consider holding a portion of assets in stablecoins or less risky instruments to preserve capital.Keep a close eye on the FED’s actions and global monetary policies to adjust strategies promptly.

5️⃣. Conclusion
✅ The mantra “Don’t fight the FED” has always been true for financial markets, and crypto is no exception. With a market capitalization of $3.5 trillion, crypto is no longer a market that operates “outside” macroeconomic forces. While the growth seen in 2024 was fueled by favorable conditions, this may not last forever. To succeed in this market, investors must always prepare for the worst scenarios and remain adaptable to changes in the macroeconomic environment.
✅ Investing without considering the macroeconomic environment is like farming without checking the weather forecast. Every sector is interconnected, and we cannot analyze any single field in isolation.


#BitcoinAnalysis
#MacroEconomics
#FEDPolicy
#InflationImpact
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