Is the Fed on the brink of emergency measures? All eyes on the MOVE index! š„š
On April 8, the MOVE Index, a volatility index for the bond market, surged to 137.3 ā this is almost a crisis intervention level! š³
If it breaks the 140 mark, the Fed may urgently start easing policy, despite high inflation.
š What is MOVE?
It's like the VIX, but for U.S. Treasury bonds. It shows how nervous the debt market is. Right now ā itās almost in panic mode.
š In 2 weeks, MOVE has risen from ~91 to 137
š¢ 13 out of 14 sessions ā uptrend without pullbacks
š RSI is not overbought ā growth potential remains
ā ļø If it stays above 140 for two days ā a cascade of events may occur:
ā ETF rupture
ā Spread widening
ā Flight from treasuries
ā Fed intervention via QE, repo, and liquidity
š¬ While Jerome Powell holds back the pressure, the market is already whispering: 'time is almost up...'
We are watching the 140 mark ā this could be the start of a new phase for the markets.
#FOMC #MOVEindex #FedWatch #BondMarket #LiquidityCrisis ššš§Ø