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In a recent report the bank said trading activity is likely to stay low and investor excitement may continue to fade. After several years of strong ups and downs the market now lacks clear reasons to move higher.
According to the report crypto trading usually grows when there is a big story. These moments can include new laws major product launches or political changes. In the past such events pushed prices and volumes higher for short periods. But Barclays does not see a similar trigger ahead for 2026. Without something new to drive attention trading volumes may keep falling.

This slowdown is a challenge for platforms that depend on everyday users. These businesses earn most of their income from people buying and selling crypto in spot markets. When fewer trades happen revenue drops as well. Barclays believes this trend could continue through the year making growth harder to achieve.
The bank said spot trading activity already shows signs of weakness. Volumes are lower than in past boom periods. If interest from small investors does not return the situation may not improve soon. Barclays analysts wrote that it is hard to see what could change this direction in the near future.
Regulation could play a role over time. In the United States new laws are being discussed that would explain how digital assets are classified. These rules aim to make it clear which regulator oversees each type of asset. Clear rules could help companies plan better and reduce risk. They could also make it easier to launch new products. Still Barclays does not expect regulation alone to boost trading in 2026.
The report paid special attention to one large public crypto company. The firm is working on new areas such as futures products and digital shares. It is also investing in new technology and compliance systems. Barclays sees these efforts as positive for the long run. But the bank warned that lower trading volumes and higher costs could limit profits next year. As a result the analysts lowered their price outlook for the stock.
Tokenized assets are another area to watch. Many large financial firms are testing ways to move real world assets onto blockchains. This idea has gained interest across the industry. Even so Barclays said this market is still very small. It is unlikely to add meaningful income in 2026. Most benefits from tokenization may come later

Politics has become more friendly toward crypto in recent months. This has helped improve market mood. However Barclays believes much of that optimism is already reflected in prices. New laws still need approval and could face delays or challenges. Until rules are fully in place their effect may remain limited.
Overall Barclays sees 2026 as a waiting period for crypto. Trading activity is slowing and clear growth drivers are missing. Companies are focusing on building for the future rather than quick gains. Whether these long term plans succeed will become clearer in the years ahead.
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The release of the delayed U.S. September 2025 jobs report has injected a fresh wave of complexity into the global economic outlook, presenting a mixed picture that is highly relevant for cryptocurrency investors. The data, showing stronger-than-forecast job creation alongside an uptick in the unemployment rate, suggests a nuanced labor market that is simultaneously resilient and cooling.

Key Data Highlights
The report revealed a significant divergence from expectations:

Job Gains Beat Forecasts: The U.S. economy added 119,000 non-farm payrolls in September. This figure substantially exceeded the consensus market forecast, which was closer to 50,000 jobs, and marked a rebound from a downward-revised loss in August.Notable Sector Strength: Job gains were concentrated in sectors like healthcare and food and beverage services, indicating continued consumer-driven demand in certain areas.Sectoral Weakness: Job losses were notable in transportation and warehousing and the federal government workforce.Unemployment Rate Climbs: The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August. This marks the highest level in several months, suggesting that while hiring remains stable, more people are entering the labor force but are struggling to find work, or that layoffs are gradually ticking up.Wage Growth Moderation: Average hourly earnings showed a modest increase of 0.2% month-over-month, slowing the annual wage growth pace. This easing of wage pressure may slightly mitigate immediate inflation fears.
Implications for the Federal Reserve and Crypto
The mixed nature of this report presents a challenge for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and has led to an immediate re-evaluation of its monetary policy path—a factor that strongly influences the high-beta cryptocurrency market.
Complicated Rate Hike/Cut Outlook:The Strong Job Gains (119K) traditionally suggest economic resilience, which supports the Fed maintaining its restrictive policy to fight inflation. This reduces the immediate pressure for interest rate cuts.The Rising Unemployment (4.4%) and moderating wage growth indicate that the labor market is loosening. This is a sign that the Fed's past rate hikes are having their desired effect and could build a case for eventual rate cuts in 2026.Market Uncertainty: The lack of a clear directional signal—neither unequivocally strong (which would necessitate higher rates) nor unequivocally weak (which would force immediate cuts)—has heightened market uncertainty. This "fog" surrounding the macro outlook typically leads to cautious sentiment among investors.
₿ What This Means for Bitcoin and the Crypto Market
Cryptocurrency markets, including Bitcoin ($BTC) and other major digital assets, are highly sensitive to macro-economic shifts, particularly the Fed’s policy decisions.

Reduced Immediate Rate Cut Hopes: The stronger-than-expected job creation has further dampened the probability of a December 2025 rate cut. A "higher-for-longer" rate environment tends to pressure risk assets like crypto, as higher Treasury yields make less volatile traditional investments more attractive.Focus on Structural Weakness: Crypto traders are likely focusing on the underlying weakness—the rising unemployment and downward revisions to previous months' job numbers—which points to a gradual softening of the economy. This longer-term view supports the argument for eventual monetary easing, which is fundamentally bullish for crypto.Bitcoin's Resilience: Despite the mixed data and prevailing market uncertainty, Bitcoin has shown a degree of resilience, holding above key psychological support levels. This suggests that while macro factors are important, the crypto market may be increasingly driven by its own specific narratives (e.g., institutional adoption, technological developments).
Conclusion: The September jobs report is a classic "mixed bag," confirming that the U.S. labor market is not collapsing, yet highlighting underlying cracks. For crypto investors, the key takeaway is continued volatility and the need for patience. Until the Fed gains more clarity on the trajectory of inflation and the labor market, the macro headwinds will persist. Prudent traders should brace for more uncertainty, closely monitoring forthcoming inflation data to gauge the true path of monetary policy.
You can learn more about how macro data impacts cryptocurrency in this video about the Bitcoin Jobs Report Impact 2025. #USTech #JobsReport #CryptoMarket #Bitcoin #FederalReserve #FedPolicy #BTC #MacroEconomy #RateHikes #Unemployment #Binance #FinancialNews
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