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Reports now suggest that Kevin Hassett, Trump’s long-time economic advisor and current Director of the National Economic Council, is almost locked in as the next Federal Reserve Chair. According to sources, he is clearly ahead of the other candidates, mainly because of his loyalty to Trump and his relatively high level of acceptance on Wall Street.

If this is confirmed, it would mark another clear shift in the Fed’s direction. Hassett is known as a pro-growth, pro-market economist who has long favoured policies that support corporate investment, tax cuts, and business-friendly regulation. That profile suggests a Fed leadership that is more sensitive to growth and employment and more willing to respond aggressively if the economy weakens.

For traditional markets, the immediate focus will be on the future rate path. A Hassett-led Fed is likely to face strong political pressure to keep financial conditions loose if growth slows or unemployment rises. That does not automatically mean permanent low rates, but it does increase the odds of faster and larger rate cuts once data justify it. In the short term, this kind of expectation usually supports equities, high-beta tech and credit, while putting pressure on the dollar and longer-term yields.

For crypto, the signal is mixed but important. On one side, a more growth-focused Fed and a higher probability of easier policy in the next downturn are generally supportive for risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. Liquidity tends to matter more than anything else for crypto cycles. If markets start to price in a friendlier Fed, the negative macro pressure that has been weighing on BTC and majors could gradually ease.

On the other side, Hassett is still likely to present himself as a guardian of inflation stability. If inflation data stay sticky, markets could be disappointed: rate cuts might arrive later than traders hope, and volatility around every Fed meeting would remain elevated. That kind of environment usually creates sharp swings rather than a clean one-way trend.

The key point is that the Fed chair decision is not just a political headline. It sets the tone for how the world’s most important central bank will react to growth scares, market stress and inflation surprises over the next four years. As the Hassett story develops, traders in both traditional markets and crypto will treat every new signal—from his speeches, testimonies and early comments on policy—as part of the macro roadmap for 2026 and beyond.
#FedralReserve

Federal Reserve Governor Mylan told market watchers that the U.S. economy now looks like it needs significant interest rate cuts. He argued that rising unemployment reflects monetary policy that has become too tight, and that employment data should persuade other Fed officials to support easing. While he does not see inflation as an ongoing problem, Mylan said he is mindful of higher living costs and believes the Fed should look ahead in its policy decisions. He added that the Fed is nearing a neutral policy stance.

Mylan’s comments matter because they come from a policymaker positioned to influence internal debate. If employment weakens further, his argument — that easing is warranted to protect jobs — could gain traction among colleagues. Markets interpret such rhetoric as signaling a higher probability of rate cuts, which in turn affects Treasury yields, equity flows, and risk-asset pricing globally.

Investors are weighing two linked questions: first, how soon the Fed would act if labor-market data keeps softening; and second, how large the initial cut might be. Market pricing has already moved toward expecting cuts in the coming months, but officials remain data-dependent. Mylan’s focus on employment highlights the stress test the Fed faces: cut too early and risk reigniting inflation; wait too long and risk a deeper labor slowdown.

For risk markets such as crypto and equities, the practical effect of a credible path to easing is typically higher liquidity and improved investor risk appetite. But transitions matter: the timing, the communication, and the scale of cuts will determine whether markets rally smoothly or face volatile repricing.

In short, Mylan is pushing a clear message: the macro picture now gives reason to consider material easing, and employment data should be the deciding factor. Market participants will watch upcoming jobs reports, inflation prints, and Fed comments closely for signs that the debate is shifting from “if” to “when.”

What will the next jobs report say, and will it be enough to change the Fed’s course?
#FedralReserve

Arthur Hayes said that market liquidity has started to improve and confirmed that the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening cycle will effectively end on December 1. He noted that this Wednesday could mark the final reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet before policy conditions shift.

Hayes also pointed out that U.S. banks increased lending in November, which is typically a signal of easing financial pressure in the system. In his view, Bitcoin will continue to trade below $90,000 in the short term and could retest the lower end of the $80,000 range.

However, he believes the $80,000 level will act as firm support, with liquidity conditions improving enough to prevent a deeper breakdown.
#FedralReserve #Bitcoin

Former New York #FedralReserve trader Joseph Wang, known as The Fed Guy, believes the U.S. central bank could soon reverse course and restart balance sheet expansion before the end of 2025 — a move that could quietly reshape global liquidity conditions. After three years of balance sheet reduction, or “quantitative tightening,” the Fed may no longer have the option to keep draining liquidity from the system without destabilizing short-term rates.

Wang argues that this isn’t about rescuing risk assets, manipulating Treasury yields, or even preventing a liquidity crisis — it’s about control. In his words, if the Fed doesn’t inject fresh liquidity into the financial system by buying securities, it will gradually lose control over short-term interest rates, which are the foundation of its monetary policy framework.

The liquidity squeeze behind the scenes

The pressure stems from two interconnected forces: the Treasury General Account (TGA) and the repo market. As the U.S. Treasury rebuilds its cash balance in the TGA, it effectively pulls liquidity out of the banking system, leaving fewer reserves available in the financial sector. At the same time, the strong demand for repurchase agreements (repos) — short-term loans secured by Treasuries — reflects how tight dollar liquidity has become.

If this continues, Wang expects the Fed to step in and expand its balance sheet by $300 billion to $500 billion per year just to stabilize short-term rates. This move would quietly mark a transition from contraction to neutral or mild expansion, without formally announcing a new round of quantitative easing (QE).

The real motive: control, not stimulus

While some investors interpret potential balance sheet growth as a bullish signal for equities and crypto, Wang clarifies that this is primarily a technical response, not a macroeconomic stimulus. The goal isn’t to inflate asset prices but to keep monetary policy functional — ensuring that the Fed Funds rate remains the central anchor for global dollar liquidity.

However, the market rarely distinguishes motive from effect. History has shown that whenever the Fed expands its balance sheet, even for structural reasons, risk assets benefit indirectly through renewed liquidity and confidence.

A quiet inflection point

If Wang’s projection proves accurate, the Fed could soon enter a new phase of “stealth easing”, where policy normalization quietly gives way to liquidity management. The implications would stretch far beyond U.S. borders — affecting dollar funding costs, emerging market flows, and even crypto liquidity conditions.

As 2025 draws to a close, the story may not be about whether the Fed cuts rates — but whether it quietly turns the liquidity tap back on to preserve control. And when that happens, the market will likely feel the ripple long before the Fed admits it’s easing again.

— A Market Observer

The cryptocurrency market is once again showing signs of bullish momentum as investor sentiment moves into the "Greed" zone. This shift follows recent remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which many interpreted as dovish, signaling a possible interest rate cut in the near future.
Federal Reserve Tone Sparks Optimism
In a recent speech, Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank remains cautious about economic conditions but is open to loosening monetary policy if inflation continues to ease. While he did not commit to a rate cut, the market interpreted his tone as more supportive of economic growth, which typically benefits risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Investors responded positively to the news, pushing Bitcoin and Ethereum higher. This reaction underscores how sensitive the crypto market is to macroeconomic signals, especially those tied to monetary policy.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Lead the Rally
Bitcoin saw a significant price increase following Powell's comments, regaining some of the ground it had lost during previous weeks of uncertainty. Ethereum also experienced a strong upward move, reflecting renewed confidence among market participants.
The rally in these two major cryptocurrencies has helped push the overall sentiment in the market back into "Greed" territory, according to sentiment tracking tools widely used by traders and analysts.
Investor Sentiment Turns Bullish
The return to greed indicates a shift in market psychology. After months of mixed signals and caution, traders appear to be positioning themselves more aggressively in anticipation of favorable conditions.
However, while the optimism is notable, it’s important to recognize the risks. Markets that quickly swing toward greed can also become vulnerable to sharp corrections, especially if expectations about Federal Reserve policy change.
Outlook for the Coming Months
The crypto market's short-term direction will likely depend on future economic data and any further statements from the Federal Reserve. If inflation continues to decline and economic growth remains steady, there is a strong possibility that interest rates could be cut, potentially fueling even more momentum for cryptocurrencies.
Still, traders should remain cautious. While the Fed’s current tone may be market-friendly, conditions can shift quickly, especially in an environment where inflation and global financial uncertainty remain in play.
Conclusion
The recent rise in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, along with a return to "Greed" in market sentiment, suggests a renewed wave of optimism among crypto investors. With the Federal Reserve signaling a more supportive stance, the stage may be set for further gains. However, navigating this environment requires a careful balance of optimism and risk management, especially in such a volatile asset class.
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoMarket #FedralReserve #CryptoNews

#FedralReserve #Trumptarifs
In a bold statement that’s sparking heated debate, Federal Reserve Board nominee Stephen Miran recently argued that tariffs do not necessarily fuel inflation, pushing back against conventional economic wisdom. Speaking on CNBC, Miran, who also serves as the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, asserted that there’s “no evidence whatsoever” that President Trump’s global trade policies have caused a spike in prices. This perspective comes at a critical time as the U.S. navigates a complex economic landscape shaped by sweeping tariffs and global trade tensions. Let’s dive into what this means for markets, investors, and the broader economy.
Miran’s Take: Tariffs Don’t Automatically Mean Higher Prices
Miran’s comments challenge the narrative that tariffs—taxes on imported goods—inevitably drive up consumer prices. He argues that foreign suppliers, not U.S. consumers, have largely absorbed the costs of Trump’s tariffs. For instance, after the July 2025 inflation report showed price increases in tariff-sensitive goods like clothing, Miran dismissed claims linking these hikes directly to trade policies, pointing to similar price trends abroad. “It just hasn’t panned out,” he said, suggesting that the inflationary impact of tariffs may be overstated.
This view contrasts sharply with warnings from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who has repeatedly cautioned that Trump’s tariffs—some of the largest since the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930—could lead to higher inflation and slower economic growth. Powell noted in April 2025 that the scale of these tariffs could create a “challenging scenario” for the Fed, potentially leading to stagflation, where prices rise while growth stagnates.
The Data: Mixed Signals on Tariffs and Inflation
So, who’s right? Let’s look at the evidence. A Federal Reserve Bank of Boston study estimates that 2025 tariffs could add 0.5 to 2.2 percentage points to core PCE inflation, depending on how businesses adjust their profit margins. However, this assumes no changes in consumer demand or substitution to non-tariffed goods. Meanwhile, a 2019 study by Alberto Cavallo found that while U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports were fully passed to import prices, only part of the cost reached retail consumers, as businesses absorbed some of the hit to protect margins.
On the flip side, Miran’s argument finds some support. Despite tariffs pushing the U.S. effective tariff rate to 22.5%—the highest since 1909—July 2025 consumer price inflation rose only 2.7% year-over-year, well below the 9.1% peak in 2022. This suggests that while tariffs may cause short-term price bumps, broader inflationary pressures might be tempered by other factors, like global competition or supply chain adjustments.
Implications for Investors and Crypto Markets
Miran’s nomination and his tariff stance could have significant implications for monetary policy and markets. If confirmed, his perspective might push the Fed to “look through” tariff-induced price increases, focusing instead on long-term inflation expectations. This could delay rate cuts, keeping interest rates in the 4.25–4.50% range, as seen in July 2025. Higher rates typically strengthen the dollar, which could pressure crypto prices, as investors often flock to safer assets in high-rate environments.
However, uncertainty remains a key factor. The Budget Lab at Yale estimates that 2025 tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.5% in the short term and cost households $3,800 in purchasing power on average. If Miran’s view prevails and the Fed downplays tariff-driven inflation, we might see a looser monetary policy, potentially boosting risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. But if Powell’s stagflation fears materialize, crypto markets could face headwinds from both higher rates and economic slowdown.
The Bigger Picture: A Polarized Debate
Miran’s comments highlight a deeper divide in economic thinking. While many economists, including those at the IMF and Federal Reserve, warn of tariffs’ stagflationary risks, Miran’s stance aligns with the Trump administration’s broader strategy to prioritize domestic production over global trade concerns. His nomination has drawn scrutiny, with critics pointing to his past critiques of the Fed’s “groupthink” on monetary policy. If confirmed, Miran could steer the Fed toward a more unorthodox approach, potentially reshaping how it balances its dual mandate of price stability and full employment.
What’s Next?
As tariffs continue to reshape global trade, all eyes are on the Fed’s September 2025 meeting, where new economic projections will shed light on how policymakers view these policies. For now, Miran’s contrarian take offers a fresh perspective but leaves investors navigating a foggy outlook. Will tariffs spark inflation, or are they a manageable tool for economic restructuring? Share your thoughts below—

#FedralReserve

In a dramatic escalation of tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve, Governor Lisa Cook is set to sue President Donald Trump over his unprecedented attempt to fire her, according to BlockBeats. Trump announced Cook’s dismissal on August 25, 2025, citing unproven mortgage fraud allegations from a Trump-appointed official, Bill Pulte. Cook’s attorney, Abbe Lowell, asserts that Trump lacks the legal authority to remove a Federal Reserve governor without substantiated cause, arguing the move is a politically motivated attack on the Fed’s independence.

The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 limits presidential power to dismiss governors to cases of proven malfeasance or gross misconduct. Legal experts, including Columbia Law’s Lev Menand, call the firing “illegal,” noting that Cook has not been charged or convicted. This clash threatens the Fed’s autonomy, a cornerstone of U.S. economic stability, as Trump pushes for lower interest rates to align with his economic agenda. Critics, like Senator Elizabeth Warren, label it an “authoritarian power grab,” warning of potential economic fallout if Trump gains control over the Fed’s board.

Cook, the first Black woman on the Fed’s board, vows to fight, stating, “I will not resign.” As this legal battle looms, it could reshape the delicate balance between political influence and central bank independence, with far-reaching implications for global markets.

#Powell #LisaCook #TRUMP

In a bold stance that's stirring up Wall Street, Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid has come out against additional interest rate reductions. Speaking on October 6, Schmid emphasized the need for the Fed to prioritize combating persistent inflation risks over easing policies too aggressively. This comes hot on the heels of his support for the Fed's modest 0.25% cut in September, which he saw as a smart move amid a cooling job market.
But with Fed Chair Jerome Powell grappling to build consensus on the next steps, Schmid's caution highlights the growing divide within the central bank. As markets hang on every word, let's dive into the key factors driving this debate.
Inflation Warnings Take Center Stage
Schmid isn't alone in his reservations. Fellow Fed officials like Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack echo concerns that more cuts could reignite inflation pressures. On the flip side, new Fed Governor Stephen Miran is pushing for bolder reductions, backed by supporters including Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Their argument? Deeper cuts could shield the labor market from further weakening.
Amid rising tensions, Schmid addressed the CFA Society Kansas City, noting how businesses are hitting pause on hiring due to uncertainties around U.S. tariffs and AI's role in reshaping workforces. Yet, he spotlighted positive indicators like a steady 4.3% unemployment rate as evidence of underlying job market resilience.
Inflation, however, remains stubbornly elevated. Services-related inflation has hovered around 3.5% recently—well above the Fed's 2% target. Schmid flagged a worrisome uptick in price increases, with about 80% of tracked categories seeing hikes by August, up from 70% earlier in the year. While he downplays tariffs' overall inflationary impact, he sees current conditions as a sign of balanced policy, not a green light for aggressive easing.
The Tough Balancing Act for Fed Decision-Makers
At the heart of the dilemma: Fed policymakers are caught in a high-stakes tradeoff. Slash rates to bolster employment, and you risk fanning inflation flames. Hold them steady to tame prices, and unemployment could spike. Schmid captured this tension perfectly: "Trade-offs force tough choices on competing objectives, and the Fed has to navigate these hard decisions on inflation and employment." Maintaining the bank's inflation-fighting credibility is key, he added.
Despite the challenges, the economy shows real muscle. AI-driven software investments are fueling business spending—even in a high-rate environment—while stock markets flirt with record highs and corporate bond spreads sit at historic lows.
Looking ahead, traders are betting big on quarter-point cuts at the Fed's upcoming October and December meetings. But with voices like Schmid's gaining traction, the path forward is anything but certain. Investors, stay tuned—this could reshape market dynamics in unexpected ways.

#FedralReserve

Bitcoin in the Spotlight: Powell’s Perspective
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently delved into the Federal Reserve’s stance on Bitcoin and its implications for monetary policy. In a landmark address, Powell highlighted the challenges and opportunities posed by cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin in the broader financial ecosystem. His remarks signal a deeper engagement by the Federal Reserve with digital currencies, underscoring their growing relevance in global finance.
Understanding the Bitcoin Phenomenon
Bitcoin, the first and most prominent cryptocurrency, has transformed from a niche digital asset into a trillion-dollar global phenomenon. Its decentralized nature, capped supply of 21 million coins, and role as a potential store of value have driven interest among retail investors, institutional players, and even governments. However, Bitcoin's volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and environmental concerns continue to raise questions about its integration into the traditional financial system.
Powell acknowledged these dual realities, describing Bitcoin as both "an innovation worth monitoring" and "a speculative asset." He emphasized the Federal Reserve's responsibility to assess the implications of cryptocurrencies without stifling technological progress.
Bitcoin as a Reserve Asset: A New Frontier?
A key aspect of Powell's address was the Federal Reserve’s stance on Bitcoin as a potential reserve asset. In traditional finance, central banks hold reserves in assets like gold, U.S. dollars, and government bonds to support monetary stability. The idea of adding Bitcoin to this mix has sparked intense debate.
Powell noted that Bitcoin’s extreme price fluctuations make it unsuitable for immediate adoption as a reserve asset. "Reserve assets must be stable, liquid, and universally accepted. Bitcoin, while increasingly prominent, does not yet meet these criteria," Powell stated.
However, he also acknowledged that as Bitcoin matures, its utility as a hedge against inflation and a potential reserve asset could grow. He called for more research and international collaboration to understand the implications of central banks holding cryptocurrencies.
The Dollar’s Role in the Age of Bitcoin
Powell’s address also touched on the implications of Bitcoin for the U.S. dollar’s global dominance. Critics of fiat currencies argue that Bitcoin offers a decentralized alternative to inflation-prone national currencies. While Powell downplayed immediate threats to the dollar, he recognized that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are pushing central banks to modernize their monetary systems.
"Technological innovation is reshaping finance," Powell said. "While the U.S. dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, we must ensure that it evolves to meet future challenges."
This statement aligns with broader Federal Reserve initiatives to explore a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Powell reiterated that a U.S. CBDC could complement Bitcoin rather than compete with it, creating a more resilient and inclusive financial ecosystem.
Regulation: A Balancing Act
A significant portion of Powell’s remarks focused on regulatory challenges surrounding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. He stressed the need for clear, consistent regulations to protect investors, prevent illicit activity, and ensure market stability.
"The Federal Reserve does not aim to stifle innovation," Powell clarified. "But we have a duty to ensure that cryptocurrencies operate within a framework that safeguards public trust and financial stability."
He called for a coordinated global regulatory approach, noting that Bitcoin’s borderless nature requires international cooperation. This statement reflects growing concerns among policymakers that inconsistent regulations could lead to arbitrage opportunities and systemic risks.
Bitcoin Advocates React
Powell’s address has drawn mixed reactions from Bitcoin proponents. Advocates of cryptocurrency argue that the Federal Reserve is underestimating Bitcoin’s potential as "digital gold." They point to Bitcoin’s historical performance as a hedge against inflation and its ability to operate independently of centralized financial systems.
However, some investors welcomed Powell’s measured tone, seeing it as a sign that regulators are willing to engage constructively with the cryptocurrency ecosystem. "This is a step forward," said a prominent Bitcoin analyst. "It’s encouraging to see the Federal Reserve acknowledge Bitcoin’s importance, even if there’s a long way to go."
Looking Ahead: Bitcoin and the Federal Reserve
Powell’s remarks represent a pivotal moment in the relationship between Bitcoin and traditional monetary institutions. While the Federal Reserve is unlikely to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset in the near term, the conversation itself marks a shift in how cryptocurrencies are perceived.
As Bitcoin continues to mature and integrate into global markets, its role in monetary policy discussions will only grow. Powell’s call for research, regulation, and collaboration sets the stage for a future where Bitcoin and the Federal Reserve coexist in a rapidly evolving financial landscape.
For now, Bitcoin remains on the periphery of central banking, but Powell’s address has made one thing clear: the Federal Reserve is watching closely. The road ahead will depend on how Bitcoin evolves—and how central banks adapt to this digital revolution.#FedralReserve $BTC