FIDELITY

Fidelity Digital Assets is sounding a clear warning to crypto investors: “Do not blink.” While Bitcoin’s price movement appears modest since its 2024 halving, Fidelity believes a deeper transformation is quietly reshaping the landscape, and it may redefine Bitcoin’s place in the global investment arena. The report, “2024 Bitcoin Halving: One Year Later,” authored by senior analyst Daniel Gray, argues that a strong foundational shift is underway. Bitcoin has surged 63% since the 2024 halving, with just 27% of the halving epoch completed. However, unlike past cycles characterized by dramatic triple-digit gains, Gray sees this era as one of “rising maturity, deeper adoption, and network resilience.”
Bitcoin Dominance at 8-Year High
Bitcoin's market dominance (excluding stablecoins) has surged to 72.4%—its highest point in eight years. As altcoins like Ethereum and Solana give up market share, Bitcoin remains unchallenged at the top. “Fragmentation on the long tail of assets has failed to produce a clear alternative leader,” Gray noted.
Hash Power Hits New Milestones
The network’s strength is also visible in its technical metrics. Bitcoin’s hash rate surpassed 1 zetta hash per second twice in April, signaling ongoing investment in mining despite a post-halving hash price crash of over 60%. These numbers reflect not euphoria, but conviction.
Record-Setting ETF and Futures Interest
Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. are helping fuel demand. On May 22, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $934.8 million in net inflows—their largest in nearly a month. BlackRock’s IBIT continues to lead institutional inflows.
Simultaneously, Bitcoin futures open interest hit $80 billion on May 23, a 30% rise since the beginning of the month, according to CoinGlass data.
Despite these milestones, funding rates remain flat or even negative, suggesting that the current rally is supported by organic spot demand rather than leverage, an uncommon trait in crypto bull runs.
Price Hits New Highs, But Without the Frenzy
Bitcoin touched a record intraday high of $111,000 on May 21, holding near $109,563 at press time. Yet analysts, including Alex Krüger, say this is “the least euphoric new all-time high in the history of Bitcoin.”
Fidelity’s Gray emphasizes that the lack of speculative mania may be a sign of maturity, not weakness. “Returns have been more measured, but structural metrics suggest a strengthening foundation,” he writes. “Bitcoin’s role in a modern portfolio may be evolving.”
In short, Fidelity believes the current bull run may be less about short-term highs and more about long-term sustainability and institutional integration.
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