#USGDPUpdate New media discussion: data on 4.3% growth of the US GDP in the third quarter may have been exaggerated due to anomalous data in the video game sector and customs effects. Therefore, the actual growth may be lower than it appears in the headlines.
Some economists believe that the underlying trend of true growth is closer to ~2%, and the high figures may be partly a statistical artifact.
However, the published data has already impacted the markets and expectations.
What is important to know today:
some media and analysts raise questions about the reliability of the "large" US GDP figures.
Why is this important?
- markets may overreact
- the Fed may misadjust rates
- headlines scream, while reality is calmer.
Thus -
4.3% is a loud number for the news.
~2% is how the economy is actually moving in the long term.
Both figures are "correct," they just refer to different things.
What influenced the large figure?
- sharp changes in imports/exports
- unusually large contributions from individual sectors
- temporary government spending
- investments in AI that have yet to yield results.
It's like:
you earned a lot in one month because you sold an old bicycle —
but that doesn't mean it will be like that every month.:)
#ChangeBinance for the better!