链上分析

Bitcoin demand shows signs of recovery, but the clouds of the bear market have not yet dissipated

The Bitcoin market has recently displayed a complex pattern of long and short battles. The latest data from the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant indicates that the prolonged adjustment period of more than two months may be nearing its end, and these positive signals suggest that the market's most difficult times may have passed.

In the past 30 days, Bitcoin demand has significantly decreased by 146,000 BTC, in stark contrast to the 311,000 BTC drop recorded on March 27. This indicates that the demand for this major digital asset is still declining, but the pace has slowed.

However, a deeper analysis of key indicators reveals potential risks. The behavior of institutional investors is particularly noteworthy, with the monthly accumulation rate of large holders plummeting from 2.7% at the end of March to 0.4%, hitting a new low since February, and their holdings have actually decreased by about 30,000 coins in the past week.

The inflow of funds into the US Bitcoin spot ETF also shows signs of fatigue. Although a net inflow of $913 million was recorded on April 22, the average daily net inflow remains at a low level of -5,000 to +3,000 coins, far from the daily average of 8,000 coins when it surged to $100,000 at the end of last year. The monthly demand momentum indicator, which measures the alternation between new and old investors, has dropped to 642,000 coins, the lowest level since October of last year.

In terms of market liquidity, there are also constraining factors. The market capitalization of USDT, an important barometer, has only increased by $2.9 billion in the past 60 days, failing to reach the $5 billion threshold necessary to support sustained price increases. This sluggish liquidity growth means that, despite Bitcoin's price briefly breaking $94,000 in the short term, overall market sentiment has not truly turned optimistic.

In summary, it is believed that only when the three key indicators of demand momentum, ETF fund inflows, and stablecoin growth improve simultaneously can a new round of substantial upward momentum be initiated. Therefore, investors are reminded to maintain necessary caution amid optimism.

Do you think the recovery in spot demand can be sustained? When will institutional investors restart large-scale accumulation?


#比特币行情 #链上分析 #加密货币

On-chain analysis: Whale 0xD10...24c21 has transferred 10,284 ETH from Binance in the past three weeks and pledged 16,571 ETH (worth $56.55 million) to AO Protocol, becoming the largest individual/institutional pledger.
The most recent transfer was 15 minutes ago, when 4,000 ETH were transferred from Binance; the whale's pledged amount currently accounts for 7.48% of the total fund pool, and it is expected to receive 13,749.6 A0 tokens per month. #巨鲸地址亏损ETH/BTC交易 #巨鲸 #链上分析 #以太坊ETF批准预期 #美联储何时降息？

New Observation on the DeFi Track: Data Revealed on the AAVE Chain

The circulating market value of AAVE has reached US$2.3 billion, and that of FDV is US$2.46 billion, with 43,000 new coins in circulation every month. On-chain data shows that U.S. time zone funds are actively increasing their holdings of AAVE. Most of the large currency holders are in profit, but the overall profit is not high, and most of the people who are not entering the bull market in 2021 have sufficient chips to change hands.

🔍 AAVE overview: The total supply is 16 million, and the circulation is 14.93 million. The Genesis Wallet still holds 790,000 coins, worth $122 million. Ecological incentives and staking rewards continue to promote circulation.

📊 Distribution of chips on the chain: AAVE accounts for 37.29% in the hands of Project parties, and exchanges such as Binance account for a significant proportion. The liquidity in Balancer is as high as 170 million US dollars, showing strong market activity.

💼 Portraits of large investors: Over 75% of large currency holders have made profits, but the median profit is only 20%. The median holding period is 287 days, indicating that most of them are new investors. Large investors have low trading frequency and prefer long-term holdings.

💰 News on increasing holdings: Most of the large investors who have increased their holdings in the past 60 days are new entrants with large amounts of funds, averaging about 2 transactions per month, and prefer traditional projects rather than hot currencies.

🌐 Regional characteristics: The active trading periods of AAVE are concentrated in the United States time zone, showing the strong interest of American funds in AAVE.

#DEFİ #AAVE #链上分析 #资金动态 #市场观察

$AAVE

The current situation on-chain is really tough!
Many people find it hard to take over, and it seems like only insiders are passing the baton to each other.
The leading players in various meme sub-tracks have seen huge declines:
1. The leading goose that mimicked the fair launch of $BRC20 has dropped by 80%;
2. The meme leader of the ape chain, $Curtis, has also seen an 80% drop in just one day;
3. The highly sought-after AI leader, $GOAT, has been cut in half;
4. The black hole in the abstract art track has dropped by 60%.
Even the leaders are in such dire straits, the situation for clones is even less optimistic.
Therefore, either wait for the leaders to crash before trying, or look for trading opportunities when they stand out in a large group, and do not rush to buy just because others are making profits.

#meme_coin #链上代币 #链上分析

#COCORO

Surprising!

A certain mysterious address has taken over Cocoro at a high position!

It has surprisingly lost nearly 60%!

According to data, the cryptocurrency Cocoro has experienced dramatic fluctuations in just 12 hours. In this wild rollercoaster, some investors successfully profited by using short-term trading strategies, while others suffered heavy losses due to counter-trend operations.

On-chain data ruthlessly reveals the 'tragic story' of an anonymous investor. This mysterious player can be regarded as the biggest loser at the moment. Last night, they bought 6.4 million Cocoro at an average price of $0.0836, spending $534,000. However, just 2 hours ago, they had to painfully sell at a low price of $0.0338. This single transaction resulted in a loss of $317,000, with a loss rate of -59%! It turns out that their timing to enter the market was too 'unfortunate', coinciding with Cocoro's rapid drop from a high of $0.085 to a low of $0.034 during the correction period, which can truly be described as a 'blood loss' operation.

Follow me for daily updates on the latest quality market information, so you can get rich without getting lost!

#美国加密战略储备 #热门话题 #链上分析

🚀How to make smart money💰| Advanced💡

🛠️1. Tools and methods for smart money query
In the crypto market, tracking smart money can help us gain insight into market trends. Using on-chain analysis tools such as dexscreener, etherscan, mest_io, chainbot_io, cielo, etc., you can easily query the wallet addresses of large users, track their trading behaviors, and discover potential investment opportunities.

🕵️2. Monitor wallet behavior: determine whether it is worth tracking
When deciding whether to track a wallet, you need to focus on the following points:
• Transaction frequency and amount: Wallets with continuous large transactions are more worthy of tracking.

• Project party relationship: By checking the transaction history, determine whether the wallet is associated with the project party to avoid being induced to follow by the project party.

🔍3. Win rate analysis: eliminate interference factors
To determine whether a wallet has long-term value, you need to evaluate its win rate:
• Observe its performance in the past 6 months, 3 months, and 1 month, and analyze its profit and loss.

• Eliminate noise transactions, focus on large transactions and wallets with high success rates, and avoid being misled by illusions deliberately created by the project party.

🐋4. Monitoring of whales and small households: grasping market trends
Monitor the movements of whales through on-chain tools, especially large households with transfer amounts of more than 10 million. Usually, their operations will cause market fluctuations. In addition, pay attention to wallets with account balances below 1 million. Their positions and shipments may indicate short-term market changes.

🚀5. Outlook: Synchronizing full nodes and developing automated tracking tools
In the future, by synchronizing full nodes and combining the writing of automated tools to screen smart money, the efficiency and accuracy of investment strategies will be further improved. We can look forward to more intelligent tools to help investors monitor market trends in real time and make more favorable investment decisions.
#SmartMoney #CryptoWhale #cryptotrading #聪明钱 #链上分析

🔍Query tools and methods, monitoring methods You can review the following tweets👇

I seem to see a MEME coin with a market value of one billion US dollars being born, and I have already planned to lay out.

Like it, follow the avatar and share it later.

$PEPE $SUI $W
#大A香还是大饼香 #链上分析 #加密市场急跌

On-chain spot selling pressure analysis

🔔 The market is full of fog, and spot selling pressure reveals key signals!

Many people are confused about the current market and don’t know what to do next? 🤔💭
The data in the figure shows the relationship between Bitcoin price (black line) and on-chain spot selling pressure (blue line), giving us some answers.

🚨 Historical lessons tell us:

1️⃣ Relatively low selling pressure area (yellow area): This is the low price of Bitcoin, the amount of selling pressure is small, and it is a good time for investors to pick up bargains. Buying or adding to holdings at these moments often leads to great rewards. 💹💰

2️⃣ High selling pressure area (red area): Market selling pressure increases and prices are under pressure. These areas are usually high points in price and are good opportunities for investors to lock in profits. ⚠️📉

🔍 **Current Market Signals:**

- Approaching the yellow zone:
The green arrows are all close to the yellow area.
The recent selling pressure volume is at one of the relatively low stages this year. Although it is not the lowest compared with the next two years, it is enough to show that market pressure has been significantly reduced and risks have been significantly reduced.

- High selling pressure area: The red area reminds us that selling pressure still exists in the market and we need to operate with caution.

🔥 Summary:

- Timing to buy: When the selling pressure is low, buy decisively! 💸
- Timing to sell: When the selling pressure is high, sell in time! 🔜

🔎 **Follow the data to make your investment more confident! **#Bitcoin#BTC☀ C #链上分析

【Shocking insider】
Giant whale addresses borrowed 70,000 BNB and poured into Binance's new coin mining!
Worth $49.59 million! 💰🦈

According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, five giant whale addresses borrowed a total of 70,000 BNB (worth $49.59 million) from the Venus platform from 08:00 today, and quickly recharged to Binance to participate in new coin mining! 🔥🌊
Currently, Venus's BNB loan interest rate is 15.97%, a significant drop from the 80% interest rate in March and April, providing a great opportunity for giant whales! 📉🔍
Previously reported, Binance's new coin mining project io.net accumulated 18.12 million BNB and 1.95 billion FDUSD, and the number of participants in the dual pool exceeded 158,000, with unprecedented popularity! 🚀🔮
#BNB金鏟子 #现货以太坊ETF获美SEC批准 #投资机会 #链上分析 #MegadropLista

In the early morning, the price of OM plummeted from a high of $6.33 to $0.4497, a drop of over 90%.

In the 3 days leading up to the OM crash, 26 whale addresses transferred 14.27 million OM (worth about $91 million) to OKX through 3 wallets:

• Address 1: 0x62553c3cd5fdb25c91897f1c2e6994ab1f7e8589

• Address 2: 0x12800aabb9bef2ce8ff3b507bce4d62b4af6dca8

• Address 3: 0x64c3ce3ff8decde5022c935434fd5b8820b678f7

They had purchased 84.14 million OM from Binance at the end of March, costing about $560 million. Now, the remaining amount is only worth $62.2 million, resulting in a paper loss of over $400 million.

#OM #链上分析 #CryptoWhales #DeFi清算 #币圈观察

On-chain news on the 14th:
On July 10, Justin Sun transferred 45 million USDT to Binance, and then all of the 45 million USDT was used to purchase 14,436.3 ETH and withdrawn to the corresponding address. On the same day, Justin Sun also withdrew 50 million USDT from Aave, of which 45 million was transferred to Binance, and the remaining 5 million was purchased as ETH on the chain. Just last night, Justin Sun withdrew 14,436.3 ETH (worth 45 million US dollars) from Binance, which means that the 45 million USDT previously transferred to Binance has been converted into ETH.
#热门话题 #孙宇晨 #链上分析

CryptoQuant CEO Warns: Bitcoin Has Entered Bear Market
Today, Ki Young Ju, the CEO of the leading blockchain data analysis platform CryptoQuant, made a striking statement on X: the bull market cycle for Bitcoin has ended. His analysis is based on the Realized Cap metric, a tool that measures the actual capital inflow into the Bitcoin market through on-chain transactions. According to CryptoQuant's data, despite capital still flowing in, the Bitcoin price has stagnated, showing strong selling pressure, marking the beginning of a bear market.
A chart provided by CryptoQuant clearly illustrates this trend: during previous bull market cycles, Bitcoin's market capitalization often far exceeded Realized Cap. However, currently, despite new capital inflows, the price remains stagnant. Ki Young Ju mentioned MicroStrategy's strategy of purchasing Bitcoin using convertible bonds, a strategy that previously drove prices up significantly when selling pressure was low. But as Bitcoin's price approached $100,000, massive selling pressure prevented further price increases.
CryptoQuant's CEO predicts that prices are unlikely to recover in the short term, and a true trend reversal may take at least six months. This view has attracted widespread attention from the crypto investment community.
#比特币 #CryptoQuant #RealizedCap #熊市生存指南 #链上分析

In the turbulent cryptocurrency market, how to identify the market bottom? Santiment provides key signals

In the ongoing turbulence of the cryptocurrency market, on-chain analysis company Santiment has released a highly valuable guide for identifying market bottoms. This guide offers a glimmer of hope for investors who are anxious amid price fluctuations.

Santiment points out that smart money has begun to focus on three key signals: social media sentiment, whale movements, and changes in coin age. These indicators often foreshadow the arrival of market turning points.

First, social media sentiment, the thermometer of the market. When the prices of mainstream coins like Bitcoin slightly decline, the entire network often cries out in despair. However, Santiment's research finds that the market often goes against the expectations of the majority. When social media is flooded with FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) sentiment, it may actually be the best buying opportunity. Conversely, when FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment dominates discussions, it usually indicates that a temporary top is about to form.

Secondly, whale movements, a key forward-looking indicator for the market. Santiment's data shows that when the market declines, if there is a surge in large transactions of over $100,000, along with large whale addresses continuously accumulating, it is a strong bullish signal. These professional investors, who manage large amounts of capital, often remain calm and buy at the bottom during market panic. A recent typical case was when Bitcoin dropped to $76,000 in March, the daily accumulation by whales suddenly soared to 30,000 BTC, and the market indeed welcomed a strong rebound thereafter.

Another significant indicator not to be overlooked is the change in “average coin age.” When this indicator begins to decline while the “average holding time of tokens” suddenly spikes, it indicates that long-term holders are starting to use their chips. This awakening of dormant tokens often signifies that tokens are returning to normal circulation, and the market may be about to experience a turnaround.

Finally, Santiment emphasizes that when these three indicators resonate, the confirmation of the market bottom is the highest. Therefore, the current cryptocurrency market is at a critical juncture, and investors might want to pay more attention to these on-chain signals, as they may uncover clues for the next opportunity.

Do you think these signals are reliable? Do you have your own methods for identifying market bottoms?

#链上分析 #鲸鱼动向 #情绪指标

Bitcoin $88,000 as the critical point for bulls and bears, will $17 billion in unrealized losses trigger a sell-off?

The Bitcoin market has become more stable after fluctuations, but market confidence remains insufficient. Analysts have differing views on future trends; one side warns of a resistance level at $90,000, suggesting that if it is not broken, there may be further declines; the other believes a consolidation phase will continue to build momentum for an upward movement.

Bulls are striving to break through the $88,000 resistance to trigger a market rebound, as this price level is crucial for whether they can reclaim the psychological level of $90,000 and reverse the upward trend.

Analyst Axel Adler reports that since early January 2025, short-term holders (STH) have added 201,743 BTC, bringing the total holdings to 5,750,076 BTC, but this growth is significantly below the historical peaks of the previous two cycles (8.4 million and 7 million BTC).

Despite approximately 200,000 BTC facing $17 billion in unrealized losses, on-chain data shows no signs of panic selling, indicating the resilience of STH holders.

If the bulls can leverage this resilience to break through $88,000, it may initiate a strong recovery. However, currently, Bitcoin is cautiously navigating between optimistic sentiment and macro fears.

At present, Bitcoin is hovering above the key support levels of the 200-day MA and the 200-day EMA around $87,000, indicating a gradual recovery of market momentum, which is undoubtedly a positive signal for the bulls.

Conclusion:

In summary, although short-term holders face $17 billion in unrealized losses, the market does not seem to exhibit signs of panic selling.

If Bitcoin successfully breaks through $88,000 and reclaims the key level of $90,000 during this period, market sentiment will shift from insufficient confidence to cautious optimism.

Therefore, the next few days will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can return to an upward trajectory or continue to decline in a turbulent market.

Do you think Bitcoin can break through $88,000 and challenge the $90,000 mark in the coming days? Are short-term holders choosing to 'lie flat' and not sell out of confidence or resignation?

#比特币行情 #加密货币 #链上分析 #STH持仓