分析师龙哥

It's been a few days since the square was updated, I've just casually completed a few orders, and the profit is still okay. There are a few Golden Retrievers worth paying attention to during the Federal Reserve's speech from three thirty to four this afternoon!

Bitcoin is under a lot of pressure at 120,000. WIF has started to plummet since 1.3. What to watch now is whether the Fed gives any signals for interest rate cuts this afternoon. Ethereum is also entering a weak period. Tomorrow is the weekend, so let's see if we start a short-term fluctuation!

Bitcoin at 115,000 is also a key support level. If there is no good news from the speech this afternoon, tonight we should break below 115,000 and head towards the major support level of 110,000!
$BTC #以太坊交易量反超比特币

Why has Bitcoin once again surged to 120,000? The significant intervention by Trump has played a major role. This bill faced obstacles in passing through the House of Representatives, and Trump intervened to save its passage!

The biggest question now is whether Bitcoin will reach new highs. From the historical trends of Bitcoin, every major market decline usually results in a drop of about half. As short positions decrease, a downward trend for Bitcoin quickly forms. At this stage, we are looking at whether Bitcoin will challenge the new high of 125,000. If it enters a downtrend, altcoins will also begin to follow suit! Recently, Long Brother has been focusing on HYPE; he mentioned that after approaching 50, it began to enter a consolidation phase. If Bitcoin starts to decline 📉, it will surely drop from 50 to around 31!
$BTC $HYPE #山寨季何时到来？ #BTC再创新高

Bitcoin has surged to 120,000, and the best performer is HPYE. This altcoin is also aiming for the 50 mark along with Bitcoin. Long brother has been paying attention to it since 31, trading it both long and short, making small but steady profits! The next step is to see if Bitcoin can hold above 120,000. If it can't, then he can also short from 50 down to 31!

Now several key situations are whether the golden retriever can make the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. Whether international stablecoins can strongly boost Bitcoin, and whether the actions of Emperor Putin will lead the big beautiful country to enter the market! From the market trend, US stocks show signs of a significant drop. Meanwhile, the domestic A-shares need to see if they can stabilize above 3,500 points!
#BTC再创新高 #山寨季何时到来 $BTC

On the 25th, it was said to short at the 108500-109500 level, and the subsequent article predicted a drop to 105000, which has basically come true! Many streamers said Bitcoin would continue to surge, but now they are being proven wrong!

We can see that last night Powell directly confronted Goldilocks, indicating that expectations for a Fed rate cut have decreased again. Looking at the situation in the Middle East, it is escalating again, and various scenarios suggest that Bitcoin at 108500 is a small peak. This major drop to 105000 will be a key point; the first scenario is that 105000 cannot hold, and it directly falls to the 100,000 mark. The other scenario is that funds are collecting chips at 105000 and starting to rebound. Now we need to watch tonight’s performance of the U.S. stock market and whether the Fed will cut rates due to pressure from Goldilocks, as well as whether there will be favorable news regarding the tariff policy on July 9!

Tonight Powell is still strong, able to directly confront Jin Mao, it seems that the US interest rate cut will be delayed!

Bitcoin's lowest point tonight is at 106222, if Powell's speech later indicates no interest rate cut, then Bitcoin will continue to drop!

Last time I told many fans that shorting Bitcoin at 108500 should be able to hold a short position for a long time, and it has indeed been realized! If the rebound continues to rise above 108000 tonight, then Long Ge will continue to increase the short position!

Tonight, Bitcoin has dropped by eighty percent, and the pre-market data shows an eighteen percent decline!!

The possibility of BTC dropping below 105000 tonight has increased significantly!

The war between Israel and Hamas is likely to flare up again, and US debt is also about to enter a crisis phase! Tonight, the bears are absolutely strong!
#以色列伊朗冲突 #热门话题 $BTC

Bitcoin has surged to 108095.7, and Jinmao has published that conflicts may occur again, with gold and crude oil rising quickly. So, is Bitcoin also starting to peak and decline 📉?!

Last time, Long Ge said that if Bitcoin breaks through 105000, then BTC would go up. This time, Bitcoin surged near 98000 with a jump of 10000 points because the conflicts halted, causing gold and crude oil to drop sharply, which led to more funds flowing into Bitcoin!

Now, Jinmao says that conflicts may happen again, indicating that Bitcoin might peak at 108000. We need to see if the news is true; those making trades can start setting up short positions between 108500-109500, with a stop loss at 110000!
#以色列伊朗冲突 #加密市场反弹 $BTC

Yesterday, Bitcoin rebounded around 98,000, then rose to around 102,500 before starting to pull back. Those who went long at this point should have struggled to hold, as the pullback point reached 99,500, making it easy to hit stop losses. Late at night, U.S. stocks opened high and Bitcoin surged again to 104,171, which means that last night wiped out a large portion of long positions. This point is halfway to 100,000, and those chasing long positions might find it difficult to enter!

The key question for Bitcoin now is where the pullback will go. Friends who bought long around 98,000 can see if they can still hold on! Long Ge's view is that the range of 98,000-105,000 is likely to establish a threshold, but it also depends on whether the bullish main force can break past the 105,000 barrier!
#剥头皮策略 #特朗普施压鲍威尔 $BTC

At this stage, Bitcoin is facing a critical point of choice!!!

98000 is the liquidation threshold for on-chain whales, 101500 is the rebound resistance point, and the breakout point is at 96000, which is the cost line for miners and a key point for weekly-level decline!

Currently, the most important news is the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, as this point is crucial for the rise of gold and oil. If global energy prices rise, then speculative assets like Bitcoin will enter a downward cycle!

Long Brother is optimistic about going long at 98000 for BTC, with a stop loss at 96000! The entry position is 5% of the total portfolio!
#以色列伊朗冲突 #剥头皮策略 $BTC

Last night the volatility was really high, Bitcoin first rose to 106486, then started to drop to 102255 in the evening, which is almost a 4000-point range!

Last night I got into some altcoins 29180425098, this wave was pretty good! It's the weekend so I can rest now, going fishing!

Note that tonight is the $6.5 trillion "Triple Witching Day"; the US stock market will definitely experience significant fluctuations tonight, and Bitcoin is also expected to have a 3% volatility!

Tonight, approximately $5.8 trillion worth of stock open contracts are set to expire! This includes $4.2 trillion in index options, $708 billion in US ETF options, and $819 billion in individual stock options!

Therefore, Bitcoin has already started to show upward volatility this afternoon, but what remains uncertain is whether Bitcoin can reach $110,000 tonight, and whether it will experience sharp fluctuations afterward. Thus, tonight, Brother Long does not recommend entering the market to make trades. Friends who have taken long positions can wait to see if there will be a new high before unloading! Friends with long positions should have entered based on Brother Long's earlier suggestion at the $103,500 position for volatility; those who chase positions later should ideally take some profits and primarily observe!
#三巫日 #热门话题 $BTC

Tonight, the global economy may be waiting for this action!!! News released by Iranian television: Tonight, a major event will occur that will be remembered by the world for centuries!

What does this mean? Is the beautiful country going to take action? If something happens tonight that everyone thinks is significant, could Bitcoin experience a black swan event tonight?

Pay attention to whether the 100,000 barrier will be broken tonight; the market sentiment during the day has been fluctuating between 103,500 and 105,000, and the key is whether a major event will occur tonight. Stay tuned for Long Ge's latest news!

Last night's Bitcoin fluctuations were as I predicted earlier, oscillating around 103500-105000. Now, regardless of whether Bitcoin goes south or north, it's best to watch.

Because Bitcoin is currently in a position that can go either up or down, no matter what you do, there is potential for both outcomes, so trading requires waiting for the right position. I mentioned in previous articles that the Bitcoin trend has arrived; regardless of the cycle, profits can be made, provided you understand the right direction and the emotional fluctuations of various news!

Bitcoin is very much a product of news. Especially the evening performance of the US stock market, as well as comments from the Federal Reserve. The reason retail investors are always passive is that the sources of news are slower than those economic giants! At this stage, Dragon Brother suggests waiting for a trend to emerge at the 105000 position, not to chase it. Instead, we need to determine the turning points in either direction. For example, if Bitcoin stops falling at 103300 and continues to rise, then 103300 is the turning point for this wave. However, if it only oscillates in the 103500-105000 range, then this point cannot be confirmed as the turning point for this wave, and we need to see if it can hold support around 101500!

In previous articles, Dragon Brother also mentioned that if it oscillates in the 103500-105000 range, the probability of breaking down past 10 later will decrease, because there is capital operating in this range. Otherwise, the small funds of retail investors cannot stop a downward trend; always believe that capital will not enter the market without profit margins. Therefore, from this wave's perspective, our defensive entry point is around 101500-102500, with a stop-loss position at 99500. Why not set the stop-loss at 100000? Because those manipulating the market understand that there are a lot of stop-loss orders at the 100000 position, and at this point, stop-losses are very likely to trigger yours!

Bitcoin has started to plummet. Did the friends who read my article last night profit? Smart money began to withdraw from this chart pattern at the top of 108900. The trend chart drawn last night looks almost the same as the trend that came out this morning!

Bitcoin's every rise and fall 📉 is roughly around 8000 points. This time, let's see if it will consolidate around the 103500-105000 position! Without a buffer for fluctuation, it will be very easy to fall below 100,000 in the later stages.

I've been very busy during this time; Brother Long basically only communicates in the square. If you have any questions, feel free to leave a message in the comments for discussion!
#加密市场反弹 #热门话题 $BTC

Is the moment of intense tension for the big pancake about to arrive? At this stage, the global economy is experiencing significant turbulence, and the international situation is also very dangerous, with even the fighting nation of Russia evacuating its citizens! This indicates that the recent sharp rise in capital may be orchestrated!

Currently, Bitcoin is about to complete the formation of a downward trend, and it could potentially drop anytime within the range of 108,000 to 110,000. Smart money may collectively flee during this stage. It remains uncertain whether the large bullish candle in U.S. stocks will trend downward later in the night! If U.S. stocks decline later in the night, Bitcoin will surely start to drop within this range 📉!

Long Ge's view is that at this moment, one should not chase the rise, as it is easy to hit the top. If one does want to chase, Bitcoin must stabilize at 110,000 or pull back to around 103,500 before chasing. A short position can be initiated with a small amount near 109,000, with a stop loss at 110,500!
#加密市场反弹 #热门话题 $BTC

On Monday, Bitcoin still showed a 102000 bottoming pattern. This rebound is also supported by positive news. At the beginning of the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, Bitcoin, as a venture capital asset, faced capital withdrawal, dropping directly from 110653 to 102614, a decline of nearly 8000 points!

Long Ge also mentioned on Friday that Bitcoin's subsequent movement should be observed around 102000 to see if it can provide support, forming a bottoming trend. On Monday, there were indeed signs of a bottoming trend starting, currently hovering around 106700, indicating a strong possibility of a rebound back to 110000.

The current approach to opening positions is to determine whether this bottoming pattern will pause below 110000 or break through the 110000 resistance, going directly up to 115000. Therefore, the best approach is to wait for this movement to have a small pullback to 104000-103500 to go long, with a stop loss at 102800, making a move to buy on the pullback!

As soon as the CPI data came out, Long Ge said to short high. It's a pity we didn't reach the needle area Long Ge mentioned. This drop of 8000 points still left the longs hanging on the mountain!

Long Ge also explained why to short this wave, as the current situation is very tense, and Bitcoin has reached the crucial position of 110,000. Last night, global funds also rushed into gold, making a risk-averse move, which further indicates that the funds will withdraw from speculative operations at this moment, causing Bitcoin to plummet by 8000 points, with the liquidation amount reaching 6.9 billion in 24 hours!

Now we need to see if Bitcoin can hold the range of 102,000 to 100,500. If there is an upward trend, it would be a classic gate drawing pattern. If there is no volume over the weekend, it will be a sideways downtrend. We'll see what positive news comes on Monday to pull it back up. If it doesn't follow the gate drawing trend, it will continue to decline in the later stages!!
#加密市场回调 #以色列伊朗冲突 $BTC

The US CPI data has been released, and all the published data is below expectations. CPI has fallen, expectations for easing have increased, which is favorable for Bitcoin, so all currencies surged in an instant!

Tonight, BTC's market should be on the verge of breaking through 110,000! If it breaks through 110,000, then we need to wait around 112,000-113,500 to catch the dip!

Why does Long Ge emphasize catching the dip to short? Currently, the domestic situation in the US 🇺🇸 is facing the possibility of a civil war, and the GS battle with China 🇨🇳 is still in an unstable phase, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict is escalating. Various situations indicate that BTC may surge and then drop 📉 at any time. From these issues, it can be seen that the current situation requires the US to boost BTC to alleviate the $35 trillion debt crisis, and the global situation also pushes Bitcoin to become a product of global venture capital. Therefore, it can be judged that the subsequent market for Bitcoin will definitely experience significant fluctuations; it will no longer just be a continuous rise or a major drop!

Beijing time Wednesday at 20:30, the U.S. will release the May CPI data, with forecasts of a month-on-month CPI remaining at 0.2% and a year-on-year increase to 2.5%; core CPI is expected to rise to 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year. There are differing opinions within the Federal Reserve on the impact of tariffs; Waller believes it is a one-time increase, while Kugler is concerned about its persistence. The market expects a 45 basis point rate cut before the end of the year, with the first cut possibly in September. The U.S. Treasury will auction 39 billion in 10-year and 22 billion in 30-year bonds.

Tonight's CPI will significantly influence the trend of Bitcoin, with the relationship as follows:
CPI high → Rate hike expectations increase: If the CPI data exceeds expectations, it indicates significant inflation pressure, and the Federal Reserve may maintain rate hikes or delay rate cuts. In a high-interest-rate environment, dollar liquidity tightens, and investors tend to sell risk assets (like Bitcoin) in favor of low-risk assets like the dollar or U.S. Treasuries, putting downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.
CPI decline → Easing expectations strengthen: When CPI continues to fall, indicating easing inflation, the market will expect the Federal Reserve to possibly cut rates or maintain low rates. At this time, the attractiveness of the dollar weakens, and with loose liquidity, Bitcoin's narrative as an 'anti-inflation asset' may be reinforced, attracting funds and pushing prices higher.

Therefore, tonight's data performance should be a key focus!

Bitcoin has indeed broken through the 110,000 mark, indicating that last night's gains are still present. WIF is still the leader in the rise, and last night I missed out on this big surge by withdrawing my long position in WIF!

This round of increase now seems to need to blow up a wave of short positions before it will go down, and in the next phase, WIF will look at the upward space around 1.2-1.3! BTC must rise at least to 112,000-113,500 to blow up a large number of short positions. So if you want to short, you need to look at the level of liquidation before entering the market!

Focus on the content of the China-US trade talks; the judgment point for this surge lies in this content, so the height of this increase will depend on whether the talks are successful.
#比特币走势观察 #热门话题 $BTC