The U.S. one-year inflation rate data for March will be announced at 10 PM tonight. Based on current market dynamics and retrieved information, the initial expectation for the U.S. one-year inflation rate for March (expected at 4.2%) could have the following impacts on ETH's trend:
1. Inflation Expectations and Federal Reserve Policy Path
If the actual announced value is lower than expected (4.2%), it may alleviate market concerns about the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts, driving a rebound in risk assets. However, if the data is flat or higher than the previous value (4.3%), it will strengthen market worries about “stagflation” risks, prompting the dollar to strengthen and suppressing crypto assets like ETH. Currently, CME shows about a 65% probability of a rate cut in June, but high inflation expectations may limit the room for easing.
2. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow
Recently, ETH has been under pressure due to institutional sell-offs (such as BlackRock ETF experiencing a $11 million outflow in a single day) and technical breakdowns (falling below $2000). If the inflation data exceeds expectations, it may intensify market panic, accelerating ETH's decline; conversely, if the data cools or meets expectations, it may trigger a short-term technical rebound, but attention should be paid to whether ETF funds flow back in.
3. Safe-Haven Asset Correlation Effects
Gold has recently reached a historical high (3001 USD/oz) due to inflation expectations and geopolitical risks. If the inflation data exceeds expectations, it may divert some funds to gold, indirectly suppressing ETH's liquidity. Conversely, if inflation cools, a correction in gold may provide some support for ETH.
Comprehensive Suggestions:
- Short-term: If the announced value ≤ 4.2%, ETH may experience a technical correction, but it needs to break through the resistance level of $2100; if > 4.2%, it may test the support of $1850.
- Medium to Long-term: Attention should be paid to signals of a shift in Federal Reserve policy and the flow of institutional funds. If rate cut expectations are clear and ETFs continue to flow in, ETH may regain an upward trend.
(Note: The above analysis is based on historical data and market logic; actual trends may be affected by sudden policies or black swan events.)
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