#莱特币ETF ### **1. Current Application and Regulatory Progress**
- **Grayscale and CoinShares Applications**:
- **Grayscale LTC ETF**: The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) submitted a 19b-4 filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on February 5, 2025, aiming to convert the Grayscale Litecoin Trust into a spot ETF. If approved, investors could indirectly invest in Litecoin through traditional securities markets.
- **CoinShares LITE ETF**: The SEC confirmed receipt of its application on February 19, further boosting market expectations for the Litecoin ETF.
- **Canary Fund Process Progress**:
- The Canary Litecoin ETF (code LTCC) has been listed on the DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation) website, which is a standard procedure before ETF listing, but has not yet received final approval.
- Nasdaq has previously submitted Canary's 19b-4 filing to initiate the regulatory review process.
### **2. Approval Probability and Market Expectations**
- **Institutional Predictions**:
- **Bloomberg ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas** believes that the probability of Litecoin ETF approval is as high as 90%, citing reasons such as Litecoin being clearly classified as a “commodity,” changes in SEC leadership, and the compliance of the application documents.
- **Polymarket Prediction Platform** shows that the market betting probability for “Litecoin ETF approval in 2025” is 85%.
- **Key Driving Factors**:
- Litecoin's technical positioning (such as faster transaction speeds and low fees) and its long-term stability in the cryptocurrency market make it the most likely altcoin to receive ETF approval after Bitcoin and Ethereum.
- The SEC's simultaneous review of multiple applications (including Grayscale, CoinShares, etc.) indicates a gradually increasing openness of regulatory agencies towards cryptocurrency asset ETFs.
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### **3. Market Reaction and Price Impact**
- **Volume and Market Capitalization Fluctuations**:
- Driven by ETF expectations, Litecoin's daily trading volume reached **$9.6 billion** on February 21, with a 24-hour increase of 2.4%, and the market capitalization temporarily reported at $10.18 billion, ranking 18th in cryptocurrencies.
- After Canary submitted the S-1 filing on January 16, the LTC price soared by 17.34% in one day, with trading volume surging by 302%.
- **Price Predictions**:
- **Short-term (Post-Approval)**: Analysts expect that if the ETF is approved, LTC could break through $250, approaching the historical high of $412 in 2021.