$ETH Today's volatility narrows, turning point is approaching
In the early session, ETH fluctuated within the range of 1856-1841, with a five-minute amplitude of 0.27%, and trading volume shrinking below the daily average. The price is struggling at the psychological level of 1850, while 1840 below is the weekly lifeline for bulls and bears; if it breaks, it will flood down towards the integer level of 1800. Currently, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have crossed down on the hourly chart, and short-term funds are fleeing faster than anyone else.
On-chain data contradicts Vitalik: a certain whale secretly moved 25,000 ETH to Coinbase in the early morning; the last time this address did this, ETH dropped by 9% in a week. Just after Vitalik hyped up Proto-Danksharding, the market went completely silent—good news in a bear market is just a trap for the retail investors. Coinbase's CEO verbally supports the upgrade, but has not even provided a specific timeline, pure wishful thinking.
Key indicators are all collapsing: MACD is in a second death cross below water, RSI is lying at 42, playing dead, and the CME futures gap at 1835 is like a magnet pulling down. On-chain staking volume dropped by 180,000 ETH in one week, redemption pressure on the Lido protocol is explosive, and the water level in exchange pools is rising.
The trading strategy has three points:
1. If you dare to bottom-fish at 1820, set a stop loss at 1805; if it rebounds to 1850, you must run.
2. Until the daily line stands above 1900, all rebounds are just fishing lines from the operators.
3. Don’t exceed 5x leverage on contracts; CME futures settlement in the early morning will definitely stir up trouble.
(Supplement: A large institution transferred 30,000 ETH to a cold wallet; on-chain liquidation orders are pressing on 1835 without withdrawal.)
Now the market is like a fully drawn bowstring; the harder the spring is pressed in a bear market, the more it will collapse. Remember the survival rule: only those who are alive have the right to see a rebound. Those shouting to bottom-fish are advised to take a screenshot of their account balance for record-keeping—don't come crying to me after liquidation.
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