经济

Harvard Professor, Former Chief Economist of the IMF: Cryptocurrencies are Threatening the Dominance of the Dollar

Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University economics professor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), recently made a stunning claim in an interview with Bloomberg, stating that the rise of cryptocurrencies is posing an increasing threat to the hegemony of the dollar!

Rogoff pointed out that while the dollar remains the world's primary currency, its influence is gradually declining. He believes that, in addition to factors such as the yuan and the euro, the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies in the gray market (underground economy) is also a significant reason for the decline of the dollar's dominance.

According to a survey by Rogoff and the World Bank, the underground economy, or what we commonly refer to as the shadow economy, accounts for 20% of the global economy, approximately $20-25 trillion! Tax evasion and criminal activities are major components of this.

For decades, the dollar has been the mainstay of the underground economy. But now, with its anonymity and cross-border convenience, cryptocurrencies are gradually replacing the dollar, becoming the new favorite for secret activities such as dark web transactions.

It is noteworthy that Rogoff also pointed out in his new book, "Our Dollar, Your Problem," that the widespread use of cryptocurrencies in the underground economy is gradually undermining the global position of the dollar, which could lead to rising interest rates and impact global markets, from government bonds to mortgages, with no one being spared.

Rogoff believes that although cryptocurrencies are constrained by government influence in the legitimate economy, they find it difficult to shake the dollar's position. However, in the relatively loosely regulated underground economy, the advantages of cryptocurrencies become evident.

Nevertheless, Rogoff does not believe that cryptocurrencies are merely a scam. He considers cryptocurrencies to have value because they provide a widely accepted medium of exchange. Even if governments strengthen regulations, it is difficult to completely control the application of cryptocurrencies in the underground economy.

In summary, Rogoff's views provoke deep reflection on the future of currency and the global economic landscape. What impact will the rise of cryptocurrencies have on the dollar? How will the future monetary system evolve? These questions deserve our continued attention and discussion.

#加密货币 #美元 #经济 #未来货币

Intel's financial report is not good, plummeting 27%. AI sector has no chance in the short term.

Intel's financial report data is disappointing, the main points are:

Q2 performance:
Revenue: $12.83 billion, down 1% year-on-year, lower than expected. EPS: adjusted earnings per share of $0.02, down 85% year-on-year, far below expectations. Gross profit margin: 38.7%, lower than the expected 43.6%.

Q3 expected guidance:
Revenue expectation: $12.5 billion to $13.5 billion, down 4.9% to 11.2% year-on-year
EPS expectation: expected loss of $0.03, gross profit margin expectation: 38%, a significant decrease from last year.
Strategic adjustment:

Layoffs: plans to lay off about 15,000 people, accounting for 15% of the total number of employees, most of which will be completed this year. Cost reduction: plans to cut costs by $10 billion by 2025. Capital expenditure: Capital expenditure in 2024 decreased by 20% to US$25 billion to US$27 billion

Dividend adjustment:
Suspension of dividends: Suspension of dividends from the fourth quarter of 2024, the first time since 1992.

Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 114,000 in July, the lowest record since December 2020, and the previous value was 206,000, a sharp drop

The unemployment rate in the United States in July was 4.3%, expected to be 4.1%, and the previous value was 4.1%.

#经济

The good news is finally here!
The big bull market is coming!

Fed's Daly just spoke! She said that the recent inflation situation is a relief, but don't be too happy too soon, the progress will not be smooth. Inflation is expected to gradually decline, and the labor market is also slowly slowing down. The economy looks likely to cut interest rates 1-2 times this year, but more information is needed to confirm. Everyone is talking about the labor market, which is a big signal! Although the labor market has slowed down, it is still solid. Investors, stay tuned, these changes may affect our investment decisions!
#经济 #美联储 #投资策略
#美联储何时降息？

If you have 10,000 yuan, which currency would you buy?

Musk concept meme coin Musk tweets to celebrate Marvin's birthday every November 1st. Those who know it will understand #Mus#MarvinTail number 7055 Ethereum chain Personally, I feel that this is a very good opportunity Bitcoin in 2008 Marvin in 2024 is worth your investment #经济 #MARVIN

1. Looking at the picture above, I am in Shanghai, and the feeling of consumption in Shanghai is really chilling. After 10 PM, you can hardly see anyone in the core Nanjing West Road business district.
2. Shops in the surrounding area that used to make 5,000 a day last year are now struggling to make even 1,000. The taste is still the same, the location is still the same, the owner is still the same, but the revenue is no longer the same.
3. We have never experienced a real decline; after all, we are still a young new force. It’s a pleasant surprise for outsiders to know that we can still manage without them. The current predicament is actually the result of being beautifully isolated.
4. Snack street stalls have been driven up to 2,000 a day, which is clearly a way to exploit the situation. The contradiction between the proletariat and the bourgeoisie has been escalating since ancient times; everything is for the transfer of wealth.
5. A good friend has started a very large private dining business. I originally wanted to inquire about it, but he didn't mention it, so I won't ask anymore.
6. Several foreign trade bosses have reported that things are going pretty well, perhaps one of the few industries that are still doing okay this year.
7. In the second picture, there are more and more people going to parks and city walks. Why? It's because these activities don't cost money. During economic downturns, the first to be hit are the small business owners, followed by their employees.
8. Just hold on a little longer; we are almost at the point where we need to print money. As long as it doesn't turn into hyperinflation, there is hope. Keep it up.
#经济

📊 The Federal Reserve has not yet declared victory in the fight against inflation, but it has shifted some focus to its dual mandate's "maximum employment" goal.

Citi economist Veronica Clark points out that the non-farm payroll data for October will be crucial in validating the strong performance of the September employment figures. However, this data may not be sufficient to shift the market's concern back to the risks of an economic recession.

💼 It is worth noting that the October data will reflect the impact of certain special factors, including the Boeing strike and hurricanes, which may reduce employment by 70,000 to 80,000 jobs.

Citi's expectations for this non-farm data are more moderate than the market's general expectations, forecasting an increase of 90,000 jobs and a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.23%.

📉 Additionally, Citi emphasizes that any downward revision of the September employment data may be more significant than in the past, as it will provide a clearer perspective for the Federal Reserve's policy assessment.

These factors collectively influence the market's expectations for the economy's direction and bring uncertainty to future policy directions.

#美联储 #非农数据 #就业 #通胀 #经济

📈Market forecasts show that the U.S. Department of Commerce will announce a third-quarter GDP annualized growth rate of 3% on Wednesday, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of expansion for the U.S. economy!💪

Meanwhile, the core PCE price index is expected to significantly slow down to 2.1%, close to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.📉 This data is crucial for Federal Reserve policy, as they use PCE as the primary inflation indicator.

Although Citigroup predicts that GDP growth may be lower than expected at only 2.6%, meeting the inflation target is likely to reinforce the Federal Reserve's decision to only cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week.💼

Keep a close eye on the next few days!📊

#经济 #美联储 #通胀 #GDP