加密小江

Fed unlikely to make emergency rate cut despite market volatility

DWS Global Chief Investment Officer reportedly said that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its expected policy path despite recent market turmoil. He said in a report that a panic-driven response from the Fed is unlikely, and he expects the central bank to try to avoid signaling a major policy shift, such as a 50 basis point rate cut or an emergency rate cut between meetings.

He expects the Fed to stick to a gradual easing approach, starting in September and cutting rates by 25 basis points in the coming months.

A recession in the U.S. economy cannot be ruled out, but even if it does occur, it is likely to be mild given the overall strength of the economy and the solid balance sheet of the private sector. DWS does not believe a bear market is imminent, but will keep a close eye on indicators that reflect systemic risks.

It's a very awkward position. The upward pressure is so great that it can't rise. It's useless to fall a few hundred points. A lot of people are waiting to buy the bottom. Now we just need to observe whether 54500 can hold up. If not, it will go directly to 53800-54000, or even another wave of retracement. Wait patiently for the signal to appear, and then it's not too late to consider entering the market.

The big cake has a small downward trend, with 56,000 under pressure above and 54,000 under support below. The auntie is simultaneously suppressed at 2,500 and supported at 2,400.
$BTC $ETH

From the current perspective, the current rebound has not changed the overall weak operation. The short position on the daily line remains good. The K-line has been running around the lower rail. The moving average is also below the K-line, and there is no sign of turning.

In the chart, MACD crosses downwards, and the red bright column increases and continues to increase volume, and the short signal is more obvious. In the short-term four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands open and move downward, and the K-line changes from yin to yang. It currently maintains a continuous upward trend of yang, but the energy is limited and has been running between the middle and lower rails.

Whether it can continue to extend upward to break through the middle track will take time to digest. Until then, we will still maintain our high-altitude thinking.

8.6 Monday lunch pie, ether operation suggestions
The pie operation recommends going short around 56500-57000, targeting the 54000 area, and taking 500 points of defensive space.

SOL rebounded 28.28% after hitting the weekly EMA50 moving average.

Save traffic: keep an eye on EMA21. The EMA direction is the trend direction.

1. If the price is suppressed and falls at the weekly EMA21, there will be a weekly level reversal and the overall market will turn into a bear market.

2. If the price breaks through EMA21 and successfully steps back to confirm support, then this wave of decline is just a normal weekly level correction.

$SOL

The four times in history when Buffett made the largest shipments: before the 2000 Internet bubble, before the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, before the 2020 COVID-19 circuit breaker, and before the 2024 interest rate cut.

Running fast is also a skill. ​​​

Trading reminder for this week;

1. For those with full positions, don't watch the market. If you see a sharp drop and have no money to buy, you may panic and sell at a loss. You will regret it.

2. For those with light positions, don't read any messy news every day, which will affect your thinking. Speculate on value at low positions, and pick up leaks and ultra-short when there is a sharp drop.

3. For those with empty positions, if there is a sharp drop, it is definitely a godsend opportunity. You have to pick up some points. Since you can still be empty now, you must be an expert.

4. Why do you recommend bottom-fishing? In my personal experience, the market hype atmosphere has not subsided. The leading sectors and market hot spots are still strong. This is the money-making effect.

5. Operation process, radicals, buy hot leaders. Follow the leader. Conservatives, enter the first echelon in batches, enter at low prices, and be patient and lurk.

The rise since yesterday's short-term bottoming out is a rebound, not a reversal. The higher the rebound, the greater the probability of a retracement

The current rebound is caused by the replenishment of liquidated positions and a part of the short-term bottom-fishing positions, not the real market buying power.

So, after a period of time, this part of the buying power is consumed, and the price will naturally fall back

The worst case scenario that can be seen at present is that it cannot hold near 5w and goes to 4w5 again. There is no worse situation for the time being, unless the Federal Reserve does nothing and a liquidity crisis occurs again

My personal prediction of the subsequent trend is shown in the two black broken lines in the figure below. One is to use 5w as support and oscillate 2-3 times to build a bottom. The other is to find a new low and oscillate around 4w5 to build a bottom

In short, it is unlikely to start a new rise in the short term. It is likely to be a process of oscillation or bottoming out again
$BTC

Looking back at the past bull market, the market was full of vitality due to the continuous influx of newcomers. The game between new and old players not only promoted the prosperity of the market, but also realized the redistribution of wealth.

However, today, the market ecology has undergone profound changes. The absence of newcomers has caused the market to fall into the dilemma of stock game. Although the exchange has not reduced its profits, the overall loss of players has become an indisputable fact.

What is particularly regrettable is that BTC has almost become the only profit point this year. Large funds have poured in, but there are very few BTC retail investors.

Faced with this situation, we can't help but ask: Should exchanges contribute more to the long-term development of the industry? Rather than just being satisfied with the short-term behavior of issuing junk coins and extracting liquidity.

After all, only the health and prosperity of the market can bring real well-being to all participants.

BTC trend judgment: 4-hour market up, 1-hour up [price trend analysis]

1. K-line pattern:
- The price is around 70100 high, 49000 low, and 55800 current price, the general direction is bullish
Four-hour formation 2b (irregular), K-line pattern is bullish One-hour formation 2b, bullish

2. Technical indicators:
- RSI: 4-hour RSI (1) is 50, RSI (2) is 40, which is relatively lower and moving towards the middle track, but beware of callback risks.

1-hour RSI (1) is 55, RSI (2) is 66, which is relatively close to the middle track area, but beware of callback risks.
- Bollinger Bands: Around 73800 on the top, around 54400 on the bottom, around 64100 in the middle. The current price is (bullish) after breaking below the lower band and returning to the band. Currently at the downward port, pay attention to bullish and bearish news. 1 hour is within the lower band and 12 hours is (bullish), be careful of callbacks.

Comprehensive analysis:
BTC is currently in an upward trend, and there is obviously strong pressure from above. In the short term, the upper pressure is obvious. If it breaks through 56,300 and stands firm, go long. Pay attention to the support and barrier below 53,500. If it falls below 53,500 and stands firm, go short. Low-long is the main, and high-short is the auxiliary, but it is inevitable to insert pins
[Buy and sell points]
72798-73777 monthly pressure
68300-70100 weekly pressure
65500-67000 daily pressure
63400-64500 short-term pressure
62600-60000 short-term pressure
57400-58000 short-term pressure
54000-55000 short-term support
53000-52000 short-term support
49000 monthly support
$BTC

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index is now up 11% a day after falling a near-record 12.4% yesterday.

Yesterday, the price of the big cake dropped all the way to 49,000, and the maximum decline from the high point of 73,000 has expanded to about 35%.

The market is extremely fearful. Affected by the herd effect, many people have cut their losses at low positions.

Especially the newcomers who have just entered the circle and have not experienced the plunge, they are directly confused and instinctively cut their positions, fearing that they will return to zero.

Many institutions have denounced the coal interest rate cut too late and too slow, which has led to a big beng in the market. This has happened many times in history. The result is either no interest rate cut or a sharp interest rate cut. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September this year has greatly increased.

For today's short-term, the range is shrinking visibly, and the volatility should be much smaller than yesterday. The last round of retracement at 53,000 in the early morning today can serve as short-term support. The upper pressure is in the 58,000 to 61,000 area. The short-term is accompanied by repeated shocks and jumps.

Don't consider which direction first. It will be safer to run based on the news first. Now, I am using experience and intuitive market analysis. I still see a rebound, but it will be accompanied by repetition. Once it falls by 2,000, it will affect the short-term judgment. Therefore, it is recommended to enter at 5-8%. When the repetition is relatively large, it is necessary to experience resistance, generally within 2,000. Enter at 54,500 and look at 58,000. It is in place without breaking. Or go directly to 55,000! It depends on the individual. Ethereum is also OK, and the rebound will be visible to the naked eye! $BTC $ETH

1. Market news: Elon Musk restarts the lawsuit against OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman;

2. Fed Goolsby: The options of raising and lowering interest rates have been on the table and will respond according to the economic situation;

3. Whales Market founder: The GM release may be postponed again, and the market situation is still being monitored;

4. Ethena founder: USDe collateral rate has always remained greater than 101%, and proof of custody assets will be released this week;

5. The US government address transferred 299.956 ETH again, and currently holds about 50,224 ETH;

6. Zircuit: The total number of ZRC tokens is 10 billion, and the airdrop in the first quarter accounts for 7% of the total;

7. Trump: The US government should not sell cryptocurrencies, but build them;

8. The US SEC seeks the court to reject Coinbase's subpoena request, saying it is too broad;

9. Foreign media: OpenAI co-founder John Schulman resigns and joins Anthropic;

10. CoinShares: $528 million outflow from digital asset investment products last week;

11. Capula Management disclosed holdings of approximately $500 million worth of Bitcoin ETFs;

12. Binance Labs Fund announced the second batch of projects incubated in the seventh quarter.

The method of unwinding the currency circle is mainly determined by factors such as the position status in hand, the trend of the currency to be purchased, the degree of hold, and expectations for the market outlook.

Generally speaking, there are several common solutions as follows:

Cut the mess quickly: If the currency you are buying shows a significant downward trend and shows no signs of reversal, it is recommended to stop the loss immediately and leave the market to prevent greater losses.

Sell ​​high and buy low: If the currency you are buying is in a volatile trend and has a certain range of fluctuations, you can use the rebounding market to reduce your position or unwind your position when it is high, or you can cover your position or build a position when it is low, so as to reduce costs. Or increase revenue.

Downward amortization: If the currency you are buying is in an upward trend and has a strong support point, you can continue to increase your purchases as the price falls, thereby averaging the cost and waiting for the price to rebound to make a profit.

Short-selling hedging: If the currency you bought is deeply locked up, and there is still room for further decline in the market outlook, you can short the same or related currencies in the contract market to reduce losses or achieve hedging.

The prerequisite for unwinding the currency circle is to have clear ideas and decisive operations. You must not blindly chase the rise or fall, be greedy and fearful, or worry about gains and losses. At the same time, it is necessary to effectively manage and control positions and risks, and make arrangements for stop-profit and stop-loss. You should not rely too much on technical indicators and news, but should combine your own analysis and judgment.
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Has the altcoin hit the bottom? Let's think differently and change the "bottom" to the weekly "previous low area".

Minimal operation suggestions:

1. Keep an eye on the weekly EMA20 and the head and shoulders bottom pattern.

Simple operation suggestions:

1. Weekly level previous low: choose the target with the clearer price pattern.

2. Find the mainstream leader in the sector: avoid coins with fundamental problems like CRV, or coins like EOS that don't even have a dealer.

3. Use the pyramid position building method: reverse the position through the maximum acceptable stop loss.

$SOL

4. Preset at least 4 positions for opening positions: each order range is at least 6%, and gradually enter the market in batches.

After the panic, the market slowly rebounded and recovered 6000/500 points. The current market is running at 55600/2520.

After yesterday's panic and market effect stampede, the decline is basically over. The follow-up is to correct the indicators, so the operation is to follow the shock repair, pay attention to the upper 67100 and 2650 pressure, and pay attention to the lower 2380/2300, 53300/52300 support.

At present, the 55000 position has been broken, and the next position is the return of the 57355 daily position. After the rebound time, the contraction of each interval level should be paid attention to. Once the key position price cannot break through the contraction and will be safe, it will still fall and fluctuate.

Bitcoin's breakout of the trend channel means that the market rhythm is broken in the short term. The current adjustment wave pattern is divided into WXYXZ waves, and it is now in the A wave stage of the B wave. It is expected to rebound to around US$59,000 next, which is an opportunity for short selling, with the target down to the support level of US$45,000.

It should be noted that the current global financial market environment and black swan events have caused the market to be very unstable. Everyone should operate with caution, ensure that stop losses are set, pay close attention to the market rebound, and do not blindly buy at the bottom. Under such market conditions, reasonable defense and batch layout are very important.

Operation Silk Road:
Big Pie: 58500-59000 enter the kong, the target is to look at the 45000 support level;
Yitai: 2700-2750 directly enter the kong, the target is to look at the 2100 line

It seems like we have returned to the COVID-19 crash. Every cycle, Pie will give you a "last chance" to load. #加密市场急跌

It fell from 70,000 to 52,000 in one week, creating a record of 20% decline for the first time this year. Is this the permanent bottom for the next four years or will it continue to fall...

When the US CPI data is released next Wednesday, the decline may be over. By then, the dog dealer will directly prepare for a big rebound. The bottom may be 45,000-49,000. It just happens that the weekly level fair value gap is filled. It will be easy to deal with the panic selling. It is much better than cutting meat with a blunt knife. It is a bit refreshing and everyone will feel comfortable. $BTC

The price of Bitcoin evaporated by $10,000. Is it time to buy the dip after such a drop? My personal suggestion is to wait until the U.S. stock market opens in the evening, after all, the U.S. stock market is the weathervane of the global economy.

If Americans buy the dip, the price will definitely rebound, including ETFs, and capital will flow back to Blue Whale for large purchases.

Moreover, after a day of decline, except for American investors, most of them have completed the selling. At this time, the attitude of Americans is more important.

The global market suddenly encountered an unprecedented "epic" collapse storm, and its shocking force swept the global financial landscape like a tsunami. The root cause of this turmoil is deeply rooted in the Bank of Japan's unexpected interest rate hike decision. This move is like a boulder thrown into a calm lake, instantly stirring up thousands of waves and triggering a capital flight that has long relied on a low interest rate environment for carry trading.

As a result, the yen soared and the exchange rate soared like a rocket, which not only punctured the bubble illusion of the global market, but also forced investors to rush to deleverage to avoid being swallowed by the market torrent.

At the same time, the US economy across the ocean also revealed the shadow of recession, the non-agricultural employment data was weak and the unemployment rate quietly climbed, like a piece of snowflakes in winter, gradually accumulating into a sign of a cold winter.

The financial reports released by technology giants made the situation even worse. The poor performance was like lightning under the night sky, illuminating the market's worries and uneasiness. This series of negative factors are intertwined, like an invisible net, tightly binding market sentiment and causing it to deteriorate rapidly to freezing point.

In this context, market liquidity has encountered an unprecedented test, and investors are competing to sell assets in exchange for cash, forming a heart-pounding "stampede". The Japanese stock market was the first to be hit, plummeting by more than 12%, and the depth and speed of the decline were jaw-dropping. This panic quickly spread to neighboring Asian countries, and the Korean stock market was not spared.

The US stock market, far away on the other side of the earth, has already felt the chill in pre-market trading. Even Bitcoin, known as "digital gold", has lost its former luster in this storm, and its price has plummeted, echoing the sluggish atmosphere in the global market.