短期持有者

The balance of CEX on-site #BTC has shown a significant rebound after hitting a historical low last week. Recent data shows that the balances and capital flows of various CEX Bitcoin wallets are different, with an outflow state over the past 30 days, while in the short term, the last 7 days have shown a net inflow. The market funds are diverging, with some investors possibly selling at highs and others buying at lows.
Since December 19, the CEX on-site BTC balance has rebounded significantly, which is closely related to the drop in BTC prices following the hawkish interest rate decision on #美联储会议 last week. We speculate that this may be due to leading funds choosing to take profits and reduce holdings at relatively high levels to prevent market uncertainty, causing some selling pressure and leading to a market pullback.
Another piece of data can also help verify this, as the acceleration of BTC selling behavior over the past 30 days indicates that holding BTC is no longer the default behavior for all market participants. The short-term holder supply ratio of #长期持有者 has dropped to 3.78, the lowest level in this cycle, indicating increased trading activity in the market. #短期持有者 is more active, and the market sentiment is complex and changeable, with investors showing divergence regarding the future trend of Bitcoin.

Yesterday we talked about #长期持有者 #hodl holding #BTC☀ , which accounts for approximately 69% of the circulating supply, while currently about 16.6% of the Bitcoin supply is held by #短期持有者 . With new capital inflows, there may be more new funds entering the Bitcoin market in the future. Historical data reference: In 2021 and 2017, when BTC peaked, short-term holders held 25% and 70% of the circulating supply.

Analyst: Short-term holders may drive BTC price to a new high of $162,000

Market dynamics indicate that short-term holders might become a key force in pushing BTC prices to new highs. According to analyst Axel Adler's research, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for those holding Bitcoin for up to 3 months is 27%.

He pointed out that when this ratio exceeds 40%, short-term holders tend to start selling, creating resistance to the price. Currently, NUPL is rising by 0.818 percentage points daily, and it is expected to reach 40% around June 11, 2025, at which point Bitcoin's price could touch $162,000.

This prediction is supported by analyst Dr. Profit, who believes that BTC is currently experiencing a "rare and powerful" golden cross signal, which has also appeared before the last two significant BTC price surges.

For instance, in similar technical market conditions in October 2023 and October 2024, prices surged by 170% and 73%, respectively. Dr. Profit noted that the accuracy of this signal on higher time frames is 87.8%.

He maintains that the short-term price target for BTC is in the range of $117,000 to $120,000 and states that the current ETF inflow is nine times the amount of BTC being mined, the continuous accumulation by Strategy, and the liquidity cluster at $113,000 are becoming major catalysts for BTC price increases.

On-chain data also reinforces the bullish sentiment in the market. According to data from Santiment, the average holding duration of Bitcoin has decreased from 441 days to 429 days since mid-April, indicating that the long-dormant Bitcoin is becoming active again, which is typically seen as a sign of the early stages of a bull market.

Moreover, data from Glassnode shows that despite BTC hitting an all-time high of $111,917 on May 22, the actual profit-taking remains sluggish, achieving only $1 billion in profit, less than half of the trading volume when BTC first broke $100,000 ($2.1 billion).

As of now, the price of Bitcoin is $109,152, up 15.9% in the last 30 days. The current market cap for BTC remains stable at $2.17 trillion, maintaining its position as the 5th largest asset in the world.

In the coming weeks, the market will focus on whether short-term holders can push Bitcoin prices to new highs.

#比特币市场动态 #短期持有者 #区块链分析