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比特币传统四年周期已终结?

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Bitwise首席投资官Matt Hougan表示,比特币正在进入一个新阶段,传统四年周期或许不再适用。比特币周期终结将如何影响未来的市场发展?比特币的牛市是否仍将延续?
小桃花
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#比特币传统四年周期已终结? 2025 Fed meeting schedule In 2025, the Fed's meeting schedule is as follows: 1st: January 28-29, 2025 Interest rate decision 2nd: March 18-19, 2025 Interest rate decision + economic outlook (including dot plot) 3rd: May 6-7, 2025 Interest rate decision 4th: June 17-18, 2025 Interest rate decision + economic outlook (including dot plot) 5th: July 29-30, 2025 Interest rate decision 6th: September 16-17, 2025 Interest rate decision + economic outlook (including dot plot) 7th: October 28-29, 2025 Interest rate decision 8th: December 9-10, 2025 Interest rate decision + Economic Outlook (including dot plot) (above, source: Federal Reserve official website)
#比特币传统四年周期已终结?
2025 Fed meeting schedule
In 2025, the Fed's meeting schedule is as follows:
1st: January 28-29, 2025
Interest rate decision
2nd: March 18-19, 2025
Interest rate decision + economic outlook (including dot plot)
3rd: May 6-7, 2025
Interest rate decision
4th: June 17-18, 2025
Interest rate decision + economic outlook (including dot plot)
5th: July 29-30, 2025
Interest rate decision
6th: September 16-17, 2025
Interest rate decision + economic outlook (including dot plot)
7th: October 28-29, 2025
Interest rate decision
8th: December 9-10, 2025
Interest rate decision + Economic Outlook (including dot plot)
(above, source: Federal Reserve official website)
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In this position, I won't immediately cut my losses if the position is not heavy. I have set a stop-loss line at a 10% decline; if it really reaches that point, I will cut my losses unconditionally. There are plenty of opportunities, I can't be stubborn.
In this position, I won't immediately cut my losses if the position is not heavy. I have set a stop-loss line at a 10% decline; if it really reaches that point, I will cut my losses unconditionally. There are plenty of opportunities, I can't be stubborn.
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Bullish
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Two public strategies tonight: One pnut only lost the handling fee One rune, earned 5.5 points in 15 minutes. I opened a 20x contract, easily doubled. xdm, pay more attention, there will be pork trotters every day #比特币传统四年周期已终结?
Two public strategies tonight:
One pnut only lost the handling fee
One rune, earned 5.5 points in 15 minutes. I opened a 20x contract, easily doubled.
xdm, pay more attention, there will be pork trotters every day
#比特币传统四年周期已终结?
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Bullish
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$BNB #比特币传统四年周期已终结? It’s the third day of real trading. I’ve been carrying orders all the time. My floating loss is 170. I can’t see the end and I don’t dare to cover my position. Why do I always choose the wrong direction? I’m drunk. In the currency circle, it’s very important to embrace the trend and choose the right direction! I hope everyone can turn losses into profits and make a fortune in 2025! ! February 1st
$BNB #比特币传统四年周期已终结? It’s the third day of real trading. I’ve been carrying orders all the time. My floating loss is 170. I can’t see the end and I don’t dare to cover my position. Why do I always choose the wrong direction? I’m drunk. In the currency circle, it’s very important to embrace the trend and choose the right direction! I hope everyone can turn losses into profits and make a fortune in 2025! ! February 1st
DOGEUSDT
48X
Long
Unrealized PNL (USDT)
+390.00%
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#比特币传统四年周期已终结? BTC trend view: Bitcoin has started to weaken in the past two days, and the current price has begun to test the support of 101,500 and 100,000! On the contrary, Ethereum and altcoins are relatively strong! Focus points: 99,600 and 98,500 below! The position near 105,000 above is fine!
#比特币传统四年周期已终结?
BTC trend view:

Bitcoin has started to weaken in the past two days, and the current price has begun to test the support of 101,500 and 100,000! On the contrary, Ethereum and altcoins are relatively strong!

Focus points: 99,600 and 98,500 below! The position near 105,000 above is fine!
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Bearish
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$ETH Evening Thoughts: Erbing said it’s not that I don’t want to rise, I have everything ready, I just need the east wind, but when I was about to start to exert my strength, my elder brother pulled my leg to stop me from rising, and dragged me into the water. There is no way, who made me not as strong as him? 🐟 See the picture: Erbing broke through 3246 with volume and chased long on the right side, and broke through 3231 with volume and chased short on the right side. Pay attention to the changes in volume. Erbing can break through 3280 at the hourly level and look up, look at 3308-3344 above, it may not be able to go up on Saturday. 4-hour level 3215 fell below Erbing and it was useless again, conservatively speaking, look at 3176-3124 below. If you can get a chance to get on the bus, open it, if not, just watch the show! It is not easy to do on Saturday due to the lack of liquidity, so the meeting is adjourned. $ETH #比特币传统四年周期已终结? #加密市场反弹 #加密圈新年预测2025谁将是黑马 {future}(ETHUSDT)
$ETH Evening Thoughts:
Erbing said it’s not that I don’t want to rise, I have everything ready, I just need the east wind, but when I was about to start to exert my strength, my elder brother pulled my leg to stop me from rising, and dragged me into the water.
There is no way, who made me not as strong as him?
🐟
See the picture: Erbing broke through 3246 with volume and chased long on the right side, and broke through 3231 with volume and chased short on the right side. Pay attention to the changes in volume.
Erbing can break through 3280 at the hourly level and look up, look at 3308-3344 above, it may not be able to go up on Saturday.
4-hour level 3215 fell below Erbing and it was useless again, conservatively speaking, look at 3176-3124 below. If you can get a chance to get on the bus, open it, if not, just watch the show! It is not easy to do on Saturday due to the lack of liquidity, so the meeting is adjourned.
$ETH #比特币传统四年周期已终结? #加密市场反弹 #加密圈新年预测2025谁将是黑马
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Bearish
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$BTC Evening View: Don't call the currency circle the currency circle, I'll change the name to the safe-haven circle! You all come to the currency circle to avoid risks when there is a little news? It was not a big deal, but it was infinitely magnified. It was because of the issue of Trump's increase in tariffs that led to the decline and then everyone avoided risks. 🍠 Look at the picture: the hourly level gate of the big cake is drawn, and then a small gate is followed. It is perfect. It is very good. The big cake fell below 101576 with volume and could not be recovered. The right side was chased short. The big cake rebounded to 102006 and there was a 2b false breakthrough. You can go short with a light position, or you can wait for the big cake to recover the false breakthrough and go short. Pay attention to the understanding of the text, and pay attention to the stop loss in the volume change chart. 🍠 The hourly level of the big cake must break through and stand firm at 102249 before it can look up to 103024-104125. It is useless if it cannot break through. If the closing price of the 4-hour level is below 101514, the target position below is 100222-98965. Why did the big cake pause at 101514? Because 101514 is the support of the 4-hour level, so it must pause to show respect. 🍠 The 1-hour Fibonacci 1:1 retracement position is 98229, and the deep retracement position of 1.618 is 95454. Let's see if this wave of retracement can go down. If it can go down, it will be good to insert a needle, which will activate more buying. Dismiss. $BTC #比特币传统四年周期已终结? #加密市场反弹 #加密圈新年预测2025谁将是黑马 {future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC Evening View:
Don't call the currency circle the currency circle, I'll change the name to the safe-haven circle! You all come to the currency circle to avoid risks when there is a little news? It was not a big deal, but it was infinitely magnified. It was because of the issue of Trump's increase in tariffs that led to the decline and then everyone avoided risks.
🍠
Look at the picture: the hourly level gate of the big cake is drawn, and then a small gate is followed. It is perfect. It is very good.
The big cake fell below 101576 with volume and could not be recovered. The right side was chased short. The big cake rebounded to 102006 and there was a 2b false breakthrough. You can go short with a light position, or you can wait for the big cake to recover the false breakthrough and go short. Pay attention to the understanding of the text, and pay attention to the stop loss in the volume change chart.
🍠
The hourly level of the big cake must break through and stand firm at 102249 before it can look up to 103024-104125. It is useless if it cannot break through.
If the closing price of the 4-hour level is below 101514, the target position below is 100222-98965. Why did the big cake pause at 101514? Because 101514 is the support of the 4-hour level, so it must pause to show respect.
🍠
The 1-hour Fibonacci 1:1 retracement position is 98229, and the deep retracement position of 1.618 is 95454. Let's see if this wave of retracement can go down. If it can go down, it will be good to insert a needle, which will activate more buying. Dismiss.
$BTC
#比特币传统四年周期已终结?
#加密市场反弹
#加密圈新年预测2025谁将是黑马
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#比特币传统四年周期已终结? Bitcoin has long been known in the cryptocurrency market for its cyclical price fluctuations, usually in a four-year cycle. Conventional wisdom holds that this is closely tied to Bitcoin's block reward halving event. Each halving results in a reduction in Bitcoin supply, which puts upward pressure on prices. However, recent market performance and macroeconomic factors suggest that this four-year cycle pattern may be changing. With the entry of institutional investors, global economic uncertainty, and the rise of other cryptocurrencies, the market has become more complex and diverse. No longer driven by a single factor, Bitcoin prices may enter a new, more resilient volatility pattern. This means that investors need to adjust their strategies and focus on broader market dynamics rather than just historical cycles. Analyzing this changing trend will help better understand the direction of the Bitcoin market in the future.
#比特币传统四年周期已终结?
Bitcoin has long been known in the cryptocurrency market for its cyclical price fluctuations, usually in a four-year cycle. Conventional wisdom holds that this is closely tied to Bitcoin's block reward halving event. Each halving results in a reduction in Bitcoin supply, which puts upward pressure on prices. However, recent market performance and macroeconomic factors suggest that this four-year cycle pattern may be changing. With the entry of institutional investors, global economic uncertainty, and the rise of other cryptocurrencies, the market has become more complex and diverse. No longer driven by a single factor, Bitcoin prices may enter a new, more resilient volatility pattern. This means that investors need to adjust their strategies and focus on broader market dynamics rather than just historical cycles. Analyzing this changing trend will help better understand the direction of the Bitcoin market in the future.
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How to get out of the trap? 1. Actively get out of the trap 1. If you buy the wrong one, especially if you buy the currency after a big rise, you must be ruthless and cut your losses early to protect your wallet. There are many market opportunities and the money is still there, so it is easy to turn around 2. If the currency in your hand is not working and is still falling, then see which other currency is going to rise, and quickly change it to make up for the old loss with the new profit. 3. If you are deeply trapped and think it will fall again, sell part of it and buy it back when it is lower, so the cost will be lower. 2. Passively get out of the trap 1. If the purchase position is not high and you believe that the market will be good, add some money in several times, but don’t add too many times, the timing is very important. 2. If the whole warehouse is locked, there is no money to make up, and you are reluctant to cut, then wait. As long as the money is your own, not borrowed, be patient, maybe one day you will get out of the trap. #比特币传统四年周期已终结? #加密市场反弹 #美国初请失业金人数低于预期
How to get out of the trap?
1. Actively get out of the trap
1. If you buy the wrong one, especially if you buy the currency after a big rise, you must be ruthless and cut your losses early to protect your wallet. There are many market opportunities and the money is still there, so it is easy to turn around
2. If the currency in your hand is not working and is still falling, then see which other currency is going to rise, and quickly change it to make up for the old loss with the new profit.
3. If you are deeply trapped and think it will fall again, sell part of it and buy it back when it is lower, so the cost will be lower.
2. Passively get out of the trap
1. If the purchase position is not high and you believe that the market will be good, add some money in several times, but don’t add too many times, the timing is very important.
2. If the whole warehouse is locked, there is no money to make up, and you are reluctant to cut, then wait. As long as the money is your own, not borrowed, be patient, maybe one day you will get out of the trap.
#比特币传统四年周期已终结? #加密市场反弹 #美国初请失业金人数低于预期
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The market only recognizes Trump Coin because Trump Coin is endowed with presidential privileges. Things that others cannot accomplish can be easily done with Trump Coin. In 2021, Musk launched a plan to buy Tesla with Bitcoin, but it was aborted just 49 days later due to public pressure. In contrast, Trump Coin was able to be used to purchase Trump products just 10 days after its launch, which means it completed in 10 days what Dogecoin and Bitcoin took three years to achieve. This is the advantage of presidential privilege. No one dares to speak out, no one dares to obstruct. The highest level of scarcity in the cryptocurrency world.
The market only recognizes Trump Coin because Trump Coin is endowed with presidential privileges. Things that others cannot accomplish can be easily done with Trump Coin. In 2021, Musk launched a plan to buy Tesla with Bitcoin, but it was aborted just 49 days later due to public pressure. In contrast, Trump Coin was able to be used to purchase Trump products just 10 days after its launch, which means it completed in 10 days what Dogecoin and Bitcoin took three years to achieve. This is the advantage of presidential privilege. No one dares to speak out, no one dares to obstruct. The highest level of scarcity in the cryptocurrency world.
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There are 4 iron laws of Bitcoin, and there are no exceptions to this: Halving every four years 2. A bull market will start half a year after the halving 3. The bull market ended a year and a half after the halving and began to plummet - Best time to escape 4. The plunge continued for 1 year and bottomed out, with a drop of 80% - the most Best time to buy the dip When the Bitcoin bull market rises too much, funds will naturally flow out To the copycat, the copycat transaction volume is large, it will rise (unless Bitcoin has not come to a bull market)#比特币
There are 4 iron laws of Bitcoin, and there are no exceptions to this:
Halving every four years
2. A bull market will start half a year after the halving
3. The bull market ended a year and a half after the halving and began to plummet -
Best time to escape
4. The plunge continued for 1 year and bottomed out, with a drop of 80% - the most
Best time to buy the dip
When the Bitcoin bull market rises too much, funds will naturally flow out
To the copycat, the copycat transaction volume is large, it will rise (unless
Bitcoin has not come to a bull market)#比特币
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It seems that everyone is looking forward to the market in February. In this round of the bull market, everyone is very tired, constantly making and losing money, losing and then making money, and then losing again. It's too anxious. I'm wondering if since everyone is looking forward to it, maybe it won't happen. But I also hope there will be another wave in the market because I haven't made any money this year yet! 8834355872361372179723
It seems that everyone is looking forward to the market in February. In this round of the bull market, everyone is very tired, constantly making and losing money, losing and then making money, and then losing again. It's too anxious. I'm wondering if since everyone is looking forward to it, maybe it won't happen. But I also hope there will be another wave in the market because I haven't made any money this year yet! 8834355872361372179723
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