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🔮Bitcoin faces a critical technical test: entering a bear market or a bull market reversal? 📉

👋 Hello everyone, today we focus on the news of Bitcoin's key technical analysis. Bitcoin (BTC) is at a critical stage in this market cycle! . Market observers are hotly discussing whether Bitcoin will enter a bear market next, or rebound to a new high at a key node?

First, we focus on the P&L Index, which reflects the profit and loss ratio of investors on Bitcoin.

In the historical cycle, whenever the P&L Index falls below its 365-day moving average, the Bitcoin market often ushered in a wave of plunges. As can be seen from the figure below, the two breaks in the spring of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 have ushered in a sharp drop in the market.

Now, the P&L Index is approaching this key moving average for the third time. As for whether it will fall again this time, causing the Bitcoin price to collapse? It is still unknown!

Next, let's take a look at the next chart of indicators used to judge the bull and bear cycles of Bitcoin. Historically, whenever this indicator falls to 0 and enters the negative zone, Bitcoin enters the bear market phase.

As can be seen from the figure, the first breakout occurred in 2021, probably due to the epidemic, which made the data not referenceable. The second and third breakouts followed, and Bitcoin officially entered the bear market phase.

At present, we are approaching 0 for the fourth time, and the market is speculating whether this means the beginning of a bear market?

However, in my opinion, we don’t need to over-interpret and panic about these data. As long-term investors, we should focus on the big picture. Because from the entire historical cycle of Bitcoin, there is no obvious sign that Bitcoin is about to enter a bear market.

At the same time, the media uses articles and chart analysis to claim that Bitcoin may enter a bear market. The motivation behind this is likely to cause market panic and induce investors to panic sell, so that institutions and venture capitalists have the opportunity to absorb Bitcoin at a lower price.

Finally, do you think it is possible that Bitcoin is entering a bear market? Welcome to share your views in the comment section!

#比特币 #技术分析 #熊市预警 #市场趋势 #投资者情绪

$ALCX The most effective way to trade these altcoins is to use MACD divergence and volume coordination. Assisted by key positions and naked K. The price has reached the gray area again, and a cross star has obviously appeared in the gray area in the weekly K, and the volume has increased. Coupled with the bottom divergence of MACD. The future trend is self-evident.
We must look at the market from a historical perspective. We must put ourselves in history to understand the mentality of most traders at that time. When the price reaches the same low level again today, is your mentality the same as theirs at that time? #投资者情绪 #行为金融学

The mood of investors has simply returned to the 'Ice Age' of July 2022!

Back then, Bitcoin plummeted to $17,500, and the crypto world was filled with wails, with an air of 'cut losses or wait a bit longer' hanging in the atmosphere.

Now the mood has taken a time machine ride again, are people ready to buy the dip like heroes, or will they continue to huddle together and cry poor?

Come and chat, are you clutching your wallet and shivering, or have you secretly gone all in waiting for a turnaround?

#BTC #投资者情绪

CME Bitcoin Futures Data: Divergence Between Institutional and Retail Traders, Is the Market Trend Becoming Clearer?

The latest developments in the Bitcoin futures market indicate a divergence between institutional investors and retail traders. Despite Bitcoin hitting a historic high of $109,000 in the first quarter of this year, macroeconomic pressures have caused the price to retreat to around $85,000.

Data analyzed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) shows that some traders are cutting back on their positions, which may reflect their cautious attitude or a decision to take profits after a strong rally.

Data indicates that the net long positions of asset management companies peaked at $6 billion by the end of 2024, but have since been significantly reduced to about $2.5 billion.

Meanwhile, the net long positions in the “other” category (which may include retail investors and small institutions) have surged, reaching a high of about $1.5 billion, the highest level in over a year. This suggests that bullish sentiment among non-institutional market participants is rekindling.

Although institutional investors are taking a cautious stance, market sentiment on social media has become more optimistic. Santiment analysis shows that the general sentiment on social media has clearly shifted towards being bullish on Bitcoin, coinciding with the cryptocurrency repeatedly approaching the $85,000 resistance level. This indicates that Bitcoin has entered the “bullish zone,” with optimistic sentiment in social media posts significantly outweighing pessimistic sentiment.

In summary, while institutional capital is slightly reducing positions, retail and small entities are increasing their investments. This divergence may signal a shift in market dynamics! This trend may become more pronounced in the later stages of the market cycle. However, whether the upward trend can be sustained may depend on macroeconomic conditions, including tariff discussions in the coming days and broader global economic indicators.

Conclusion

The divergence in the current market actually reveals positive signals! A true bull market often stems from the FOMO feelings of retail investors being ignited, rather than being dominated by institutional investors. Therefore, when the market is driven by retail enthusiasm, it often signals that a bull market is on the horizon.

This bottom-up dynamic indicates that the cryptocurrency market may be entering a phase of broader participation and spontaneous growth. With increasing retail participation, the market is expected to show stronger and more sustainable growth momentum.

#比特币 #加密货币 #投资者情绪 #牛市