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Compound Interest Theory 2
Today, the cryptocurrency market continues to exhibit volatility, resonating with both macro and geopolitical factors, but structural demand remains supportive. The tensions in the Middle East have escalated again—Israeli airstrikes have triggered risk-averse sentiment, causing Bitcoin to briefly drop to around $103,274, before rebounding to approximately $105,000, with a total intraday fluctuation exceeding 3%. Meanwhile, U.S. macro data trends are mixed, coinciding with the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations, leading to an overall cautious market sentiment.
In terms of institutional demand, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded over $1 billion in net inflows this week, with nearly $1 billion accumulated within three days, reflecting a stable attitude from medium to long-term funds. Ethereum ETFs have also maintained a continuous trend of net inflows, driven by clear regulatory statements from the SEC.
On-chain sentiment indicators show that the Bitcoin sentiment index has fallen to approximately 46%, below neutral levels, indicating cautious short-term buying. However, whale buying activity is increasing, reflecting that 'smart money' is accumulating at lower prices.
Overall, today's market shows a clear pullback due to geopolitical disturbances, but macro and structural forces (ETF inflows, on-chain accumulation) provide solid support, allowing Bitcoin prices to fluctuate within the $104K–$106K range, without breaking out of this range. In the near future, monitoring micro sentiment and macro data, as well as the developments in the Middle East, will influence whether a directional breakthrough can be achieved subsequently.
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Compound Interest Theory 1
Today, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility, primarily influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions and changes in macroeconomic signals. The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, triggering risk-averse sentiment in the market. While gold has risen, Bitcoin briefly fell below $103,000, and the overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies declined by about 4-5%. Trading volume surged, and leveraged positions were significantly liquidated, exacerbating downward pressure.
In terms of the macro environment, the resilience of the U.S. economy remains, and potential reforms such as stablecoin legislation provide support in the medium term; however, expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have weakened, coupled with a reduction in bullish momentum, limiting short-term upward potential.
Bitcoin oscillated throughout the day between a high of $108,000 and a low of $103,000, currently hovering around $104,000, with investors reassessing risks amid increasing uncertainty. Despite price pressures, institutional funds continue to flow into spot ETFs, reflecting that structural demand remains.
Overall, the market today shows a clear risk-averse reaction, but institutional positioning and some favorable macro factors form a hedge, causing prices to oscillate within a key technical range, without a clear breakthrough yet.
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