Compound Interest Theory 2
Today, the cryptocurrency market continues to exhibit volatility, resonating with both macro and geopolitical factors, but structural demand remains supportive. The tensions in the Middle East have escalated again—Israeli airstrikes have triggered risk-averse sentiment, causing Bitcoin to briefly drop to around $103,274, before rebounding to approximately $105,000, with a total intraday fluctuation exceeding 3%. Meanwhile, U.S. macro data trends are mixed, coinciding with the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations, leading to an overall cautious market sentiment.
In terms of institutional demand, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded over $1 billion in net inflows this week, with nearly $1 billion accumulated within three days, reflecting a stable attitude from medium to long-term funds. Ethereum ETFs have also maintained a continuous trend of net inflows, driven by clear regulatory statements from the SEC.
On-chain sentiment indicators show that the Bitcoin sentiment index has fallen to approximately 46%, below neutral levels, indicating cautious short-term buying. However, whale buying activity is increasing, reflecting that 'smart money' is accumulating at lower prices.
Overall, today's market shows a clear pullback due to geopolitical disturbances, but macro and structural forces (ETF inflows, on-chain accumulation) provide solid support, allowing Bitcoin prices to fluctuate within the $104K–$106K range, without breaking out of this range. In the near future, monitoring micro sentiment and macro data, as well as the developments in the Middle East, will influence whether a directional breakthrough can be achieved subsequently.
