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Bitcoin Retreats to $113,457 Amid Macro Caution and Technical Weakness

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$BTC Critical Levels to Watch Support: $112,000 – A break below could invite a test of $110,000 Resistance: $115,500 – The 200-hour EMA; a reclaim would signal a potential bearish momentum reversal Catalyst Watch: Powell’s Jackson Hole speech – Tone could define the next leg

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$BTC Outlook: Navigating Choppy Waters Despite the recent pullback, Bitcoin’s structural fundamentals remain strong: Market dominance: 9% (indicating strength within the crypto ecosystem) Year-to-date performance: +87%Network activity and institutional adoption continue to build long-term resilience Yet, in the near term, BTC is in a reaction phase, caught between macro sensitivity and technical vulnerability.

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$BTC Leverage Unwind Fuels Volatility (Mixed Signal) The Big Picture: As prices dipped below $115,000, over $116.3 million in long positions were liquidated—the largest single-day long squeeze since August 7 (CoinTelegraph). The rapid unwinding amplified downward pressure in the short term. However, open interest across futures markets rose 0.41% to $93.8 billion, indicating new short positions are being established amid the dip. Why It Matters: While excessive leverage can accelerate downturns, rising open interest suggests fresh bearish bets. This sets the stage for a potential short squeeze should positive catalysts—like dovish Fed remarks—trigger a sharp rebound. Think of it as a coiled spring: the tighter the bearish positioning, the more explosive the upside if momentum reverses.

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$BTC Mounting Macro Uncertainty (Bearish) The Big Picture: Markets are bracing for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote address at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Traders have become increasingly risk-averse, trimming exposure to volatile assets like Bitcoin in anticipation of hawkish commentary that could delay anticipated rate cuts. Recent data reveals over $900 million in outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs last week—marking a sharp reversal from July’s institutional inflow surge. On August 19 alone, outflows totaled $336 million, weakening on-chain buying pressure. Why It Matters: Bitcoin, often treated as a risk-on asset, tends to struggle when expectations for monetary easing diminish. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, odds of a September rate cut now stand at 63%—leaving room for volatility if Powell signals a "higher for longer" stance. What to Watch: Powell’s tone on inflation and economic resilience at 2:00 PM UTC will be critical. Any indication of prolonged tight monetary policy could extend Bitcoin’s consolidation phase and pressure risk assets further.

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