$BTC

Mounting Macro Uncertainty (Bearish)

The Big Picture:

Markets are bracing for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote address at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Traders have become increasingly risk-averse, trimming exposure to volatile assets like Bitcoin in anticipation of hawkish commentary that could delay anticipated rate cuts.

Recent data reveals over $900 million in outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs last week—marking a sharp reversal from July’s institutional inflow surge. On August 19 alone, outflows totaled $336 million, weakening on-chain buying pressure.

Why It Matters:

Bitcoin, often treated as a risk-on asset, tends to struggle when expectations for monetary easing diminish. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, odds of a September rate cut now stand at 63%—leaving room for volatility if Powell signals a "higher for longer" stance.

What to Watch:

Powell’s tone on inflation and economic resilience at 2:00 PM UTC will be critical. Any indication of prolonged tight monetary policy could extend Bitcoin’s consolidation phase and pressure risk assets further.