CryptoCPIWatch

Key Takeaways:February CPI inflation expected at 2.9% YoY, down from 3.0% in January.Core CPI forecasted at 3.2%, slightly easing from 3.3% previously.US Federal Reserve's rate-cut outlook may shift based on CPI data.Crypto markets, stocks, and US dollar fluctuations depend on inflation trends.US Inflation Data Expected to Show Cooling, But Risks RemainThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release its February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT, offering a critical insight into inflation trends. Market analysts anticipate a slight drop in inflation, which could influence Federal Reserve policy, the US dollar, and risk assets like cryptocurrencies.The headline CPI inflation rate is expected to come in at 2.9% year-over-year (YoY), down from 3.0% in January, marking the first dual decline in core and headline inflation since July 2024. The core CPI inflation rate, which excludes food and energy, is projected to fall to 3.2% from 3.3%.Monthly inflation projections:Headline CPI: +0.3% MoMCore CPI: +0.3% MoMAnalysts at TD Securities predict a broad-based deceleration in inflation, noting that housing costs and goods prices may decline, contributing to an easing trend.How the CPI Data Could Affect the Federal Reserve's Rate DecisionThe Federal Reserve has signaled caution on rate cuts, with Chair Jerome Powell stating last week that economic conditions remain "solid" but inflation must cool further before monetary easing is considered.Markets have already priced in 85 basis points (bps) of rate cuts in 2025, but persistent inflation could force the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance. On the flip side, a softer inflation print could solidify expectations of rate cuts starting in June or July.Impact scenarios:Lower-than-expected CPI (below 2.9%) → Fed rate cuts may be accelerated, USD weakens, risk assets rally (crypto, stocks).Higher-than-expected CPI (above 3.0%) → Fed maintains restrictive policy, USD strengthens, stocks and crypto decline.Trump’s Trade Policies Add Inflation UncertaintyWhile inflation may be cooling, President Donald Trump’s trade policies pose new risks. His administration has imposed tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, which could trigger higher import prices and supply chain disruptions, potentially reigniting inflationary pressures.Historically, the Federal Reserve has dismissed tariffs as one-off inflationary events, but if these policies escalate, inflation could remain stubbornly high, limiting the Fed’s ability to cut rates.Crypto Markets and the Inflation ReportCryptocurrency markets remain directionless ahead of the CPI update, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $82,185, down 25% from its peak, and Ethereum (ETH) at $1,889, marking a 16.2% weekly loss.Crypto investors are watching inflation data closely:Lower inflation → Bullish for Bitcoin and altcoins as Fed rate cuts become more likely.Higher inflation → Bearish for crypto as Fed remains restrictive, boosting the US dollar.Current crypto market sentiment:Bitcoin: +0.57% at $82,185Ethereum: -1.75% at $1,889XRP: +1.6%Dogecoin: +2.5%Solana, Cardano: Slight declinesMeanwhile, CoinShares' Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report showed $876 million in outflows, marking the fourth consecutive week of digital asset investment outflows, further Market Volatility AheadThe US CPI report is set to be a major catalyst for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, the US dollar, and risk assets like crypto and stocks. While inflation is expected to cool, Trump’s trade policies, supply chain disruptions, and market uncertainty could keep the Fed cautious.Investors should brace for heightened volatility across all asset classes, with crypto markets especially sensitive to inflation surprises and Fed rate cut expectations.

In place of a further uptrend, the investors witnessed the Bitcoin price and the crypto market crash today. Recently, the US-China trade deal succeeded, leaving the US reducing its tariff on China to 30% and China reducing it to just 10%. Although investors considered it a major win, especially after witnessing a massive crash with the tariff introduction, the hype faded soon, as the BTC and the rest of the altcoins’ prices plummeted. Let’s discuss the key reasons.
Crypto Market Crash: Altcoins & Bitcoin Price Plummets Before US CPI Data Release
On the US-China tariff deal, the Bitcoin price surpassed the $105k mark, and the rest of the altcoins also witnessed a significant uptrend. However, that all came crashing down as the BTC plummeted to a low of $100.7k, wiping out all the gains of the recent rally. At present, it trades at $102.8k and has lost nearly 1.5% of its value in the last 24 hours.
This crypto market crash happened as the investors turned cautious ahead of the US CPI data release today. Although experts anticipate a positive result, the uncertainty and possibility of different results have impacted investors’ confidence in the market.
Along with BTC, Ethereum, Solana, and other altcoins, the price is also crashing. Interestingly, XRP’s price is bullish, and it gained the 3rd spot in the market due to increased blockchain users and Missouri’s proposed House Bill 594.
Nearly $700M was liquidated in the crash per CoinGlass reports. Out of this, more than $200m was from Bitcoin futures, and $170M was from Ethereum, among many others. Interestingly, this was an anticipated move, as many crypto analysts like Ali Marinez anticipate a massive decline in BTC’s price.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Investors Still Buying BTC
Despite the dip, the investors’ interest in the token remains persistent. Crypto analyst, Stacy Muur, highlights that although the inflows are quiet, the market is stable as there’s no heavy selling. Another added that the market participants are still buying. This included MicroStrategy’s 13,390 Bitcoin buy for $1.34B.
Additionally, the overall Bitcoin price predictions remain bullish despite the crypto market crash. This reveals that though there’s a temporary shift in the investors’ focus, the demand and fundamentals remain unchanged
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