⚠️ The reason why Cz bought more Aster. If you are holding Aster, reflect on this article
- Looking back at history, CZ once raised the market capitalization $BNB several hundred million to over 130B$ and $ASTER is currently the next 'spiritual child' carrying a similar philosophy - While most perpdex optimizes the degree and experience, ASTER chose a different direction: Protecting users through anonymity and transaction security. At $ASTER , all orders - positions - strategies are covered by zk-proof and confidential order, helps traders avoid being read by bots, market makers, or 'sharks'. The market has witnessed the 'whale hunting' on HyperLiquid -
$ASTER increases by over 2000% – is the hype real or just FOMO?”
$ASTER is a DEX specializing in spot & perpetual trading — being referred to as the “new version of Hyperliquid”, rumored to be supported by CZ.
🚀 Highlights Increased by 2000% after TGE, strongly attracting DeFi traders. Supports multi-chain, allowing margin using yield-generating assets. The community is experiencing FOMO due to airdrop & ASTER farming.
⚠️ Risks Tokens are centralized, with a few wallets holding a large portion of the supply. High leverage → significant liquidation risk. Need to closely monitor the roadmap to avoid buying at the top.
⚠️ The biggest issue with MicroStrategy (MSTR) is not financial, but rather… knowledge
1. To understand MSTR, you need to understand a lot of things: - Believe that $BTC is the best long-term store of value. - Understand 100 years of corporate finance history (buyback, taxes, signaling…). - Understand the current bond & credit market that is “breaking”. - Understand convertible bonds and why MSTR uses them very cleverly. - Understand the 5 types of perpetual preferred stocks that MSTR has designed. - Understand the internal metrics of Strategy such as mNAV, BTC Yield, Amplification…
2. MSTR continuously innovates new capital structures so quickly that the market cannot keep up.
3. Very few people have enough time to dive deep for hundreds of hours to understand the entire model. → Most investors either: - A) take a long time to understand before being bullish/bearish - B) or call it a “Ponzi” for convenience.
🥶 Why is $BTC UNABLE to return to a bull run immediately?
1. Main reason: Momentum. When momentum has turned, trends usually last a long time.
2. The 6-week LMACD is a "lagging" indicator, but very accurate. When it crosses down → a major downtrend has already begun.
3. Each time LMACD is bearish, the downtrend usually lasts 800 days+.
4. The bottom of the bear market does not come early. History shows the bottom appears 250–365 days after the cross-down signal.
5. The price of $BTC typically drops ~70% from the moment the signal activates. (Because the indicator is lagging → it does not capture the entire drop from the peak.)
6. Currently, the LMACD signal just crossed down. There are still 15 days left for full confirmation → meaning momentum is still bad.
7. Downward momentum = NO immediate bull run. BTC may experience a short-term rebound, but it is difficult to reverse the major trend in a short time.
8. One should not expect $BTC to hit the bottom in just 40 days. History shows it takes a few hundred days.
9. The 6W frame is extremely reliable. There are almost no false signals: each time it crosses down → the price continues to drop.
1. Inflation $SOL ~4% but almost no one is affected Investors who do not stake are only diluted ~0.1%/year → too small to impact price.
2. Solana relies on staking More than 50% of DeFi uses LST. Major CEXs (Coinbase, Binance…) self-stake $SOL → the demand for staking always exists.
3. Reducing inflation to 1.5% also… makes no difference Dilution would only be 0.05–0.075%/year → harmless.
4. SOL does not need too many circulating coins SOL only serves network security + pays fees, so it is normal for most tokens to be staked.
5. "Inflation causes SOL to decrease in price" is a big misunderstanding Such a small dilution is not enough to create selling pressure, it is just an exaggerated narrative.
🚨SUMMARY OF THE CRASH 10/10 – AS BRIEF AS POSSIBLE
1) Main reason: MSCI considers removing companies holding >50% crypto assets from their index → MicroStrategy is affected → the fund is at risk of having to sell → panic in the market → chain liquidation.
2) JPMorgan intensifies panic: Releases a bearish report just as the market is weak → sentiment breaks down → liquidation of billions of USD.
3) Saylor reassures but risks are not over: MSTR is a real company, not a fund. But: MSCI makes the final decision on 15/01/2026 → volatility remains.
- If you buy $BTC when the greed & fear index is below 15, you always have a chance to sell BTC at a higher price.
- Conversely, if you sell $BTC when this index hits 90, you always have a chance to buy back at a lower price.
🔎 This is an observation & research since the index was measured in February 2018 until now. View on Alternative.me, not CMC.
However, the downside of the above factor is that it does not predict time, meaning that if $BTC drops very quickly causing the index to fall sharply (fear), but then BTC continues to decline slightly throughout the year (but at this point, the index is no longer fearful), you may still be "holding" BTC at a high price, meaning if you want to sell back at a higher price, you may have to wait a whole year.
- The trading ratio of Altcoins accounts for 60% of the total market volume – the highest in 2025. - This indicates that investors are looking for opportunities in coins that have the potential to increase faster $BTC
👀 It's been a hard time screaming for my brothers to buy BTC since 2020, but until now, Michael Saylor has only made a 12% profit compared to the capital invested.
Not to mention that this is not his own capital but borrowed money from the bonds issued by Strategy Company.
$BTC that drops to $74K means he breaks even 🥶 $ETH $SOL
$BTC 80K$ is still in the yellow zone, guys, not yet in the orange zone.
- Smart money is still not making any large accumulation, still spreading small coins.
- Personally, I'm still the same, this phase is psychologically easy, so I'm almost not future trading, just flipping spot to make a little profit :D Of course, those who are good at future trading are probably still doing well, right? :D
🫣 People might say anyone bullish right now deserves criticism… but hold on.
According to Julien Bittel — Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor — these two charts highlight how oversold BTC currently is, using the RSI indicator, and how the market has historically reacted after such extreme conditions.
📌 Chart 1: - It compares BTC price (black) with the 14-day RSI (pink). Whenever RSI drops below 30 — the oversold zone — it’s marked by pink bars. These moments usually align with extremely bearish sentiment and heavy selling pressure. - But over the past three years, every time RSI fell below 30, $BTC tended to rebound in the following weeks.
📌 Chart 2: - This chart shows the average price path after the last five oversold events (RSI < 30). Day “0” marks the oversold moment. The pink line shows that within 60–80 days after entering oversold territory, $BTC typically trends upward with a strong recovery. - Even though the actual price (black) may fluctuate, the average pattern suggests a consistent positive reversal after capitulation-like drops.
In short: Deep $BTC sell-offs often coincide with oversold RSI readings — and historically, these periods have carried a high probability of strong recovery, though the market needs time to form a clear bottom.
👀 Institutions Pull Back – Liquidity Dries Up: Crypto Faces Its Toughest Phase in 2025
- Inflows into Digital Assets Treasury Companies dropped from $5.5B (Aug 2025) to < $500M/month (Oct 2025). - BTC, once the main recipient, now sees only a few hundred million per month. - Altcoins (SOL, SUI, AVAX, XRP, TAO…) are near zero new inflows. - Late 2025 shows unusually low monthly bars → institutional liquidity is almost frozen. - Institutional strategies also fell sharply, mNAV 2.5 → - Cash flows are dry, premiums vanished, and even the strongest assets face heavy selling pressure.
🔥 This sell-off looks just like previous major crashes
- Crypto is brutal right now: nonstop liquidations and rumors of market makers running out of liquidity. - It feels like 2021 again when BTC –56%, $ETH –62%, $SOL –68%, then everything snapped back to new highs. - Macro remains supportive, so a strong rebound is still likely.
- In past bull markets, $BTC often dropped 30–70%, and altcoins fell even harder — totally normal. - The market is heavily oversold, price hasn’t stabilized yet, but this phase will pass.
- Strategy: buy gradually during sell-offs, accept big swings, think long-term. - Everyone has different risk tolerance.
- The market looks terrible despite no real bad news. - Best to step away, breathe, and reset.
🚨BREAKING NEWS 🚨 🇱🇷 Fed shifts its style: December could be a rare “split-vote” meeting
- According to Jim Bianco, Williams’ speech this morning completely changed expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 10. - Previously, most people assumed FOMC members simply “vote with the Fed Chair.” - But this time, members are signaling they want to vote independently. - This is good for the market because it shows how each policymaker truly thinks.
⚠️ It now feels like… counting votes
- WANT TO HOLD RATES (5): Barr, Musalem, Schmid, Goolsbee, Collins.
- If the Fed truly switches to independent voting → we could see a 7–5 split, a very close decision. - But if the final result follows the old pattern (e.g., 11–1 or 10–2) without any major market event forcing a shift → it would damage the credibility of those members who previously signaled independence.
- QwQiao (co-founder of Alliance DAO) recently reiterated his view that the next bear market will be much worse than most people expect.
- According to him, a bunch of “clueless newbie” who know nothing about crypto are buying spot and ETF positions — and that’s not going to end well.
- QwQiao also expects the market to drop another 50%, forcing those “newbie” to get wiped out, after which a new price base will form and the supercycle can continue.
👉 He said this back in early September when $BTC was around $110K. Based on his statement, his implied target is $55K.
- Another voice, Chris Burniske (Partner at Placeholder VC), also noted that this is the phase where DAT companies start unloading their bags; the market moved up fast, so the crash can be just as violent. #BTCVolatility #USJobsData #BTC90kBreakingPoint
1. Strong network fundamentals & major upgrades - Alpenglow has been approved with a high support rate (98%) → expected to significantly improve finality speed. - Firedancer (new client from Jump Crypto) continues to develop → increases client diversity, reduces network risk. - If the proposal to remove the compute unit (CU) limit is approved, Solana could handle larger blocks, higher throughput.
2. Attractive DePIN + DeFi ecosystem - Solana is leading in DePIN: many IoT projects, mapping, computing really use SOL. - Validator staking has increased significantly; many SOL are being staked → supporting network security and SOL demand.
❗ Risks to consider - Removing the CU limit could lead to centralization risks if strong validators dominate. - If Alpenglow or Firedancer deploy incorrectly or late → trust may be affected. - Building DePIN and major dApps takes time, not guaranteed to take off immediately → could face FUD when prices do not reflect full potential. - Validator operation hardware costs, staking risks if SOL does not increase significantly.
🔭 Investment recommendations - Buy in portions (DCA): Do not go all-in, divide funds into multiple stages when SOL adjusts + when upgrades are implemented. - Hold medium to long-term (6–24 months): If you believe in Solana’s future as a DeFi + DePIN infrastructure, investing now is very reasonable. - Closely monitor upgrade news: As Alpenglow and Firedancer progress, you should follow the roadmap + announced milestones → decide whether to buy more or hold.
- The person has already colored quite a long segment in bright yellow. If they draw an orange line, or even a red one, it will enter the area of panic selling, which means it will reach a much better entry zone.
- In general, now we just need to do something to make money, so we can gather more goods from here. Whatever it is, please let me know =))