浩瀚鎏金---云皓xo

$BTC #比特币VS代币化黄金 Golden Week fluctuations conceal mysteries; short-term bulls and bears require precise positioning. This week, the overall volatility in the gold market has significantly narrowed, with only a 100-point range between the weekly high and low. Prices have consistently hovered around the opening price at the beginning of the week, and the weekly candlestick pattern is likely to form a doji. From a daily perspective, the market has been stuck in sideways fluctuations for four consecutive trading days. Considering the current market sentiment and capital flow, it is highly probable that today will also conclude with fluctuations. However, it is important to note that the overall trend still carries a bullish undertone—although the bulls are currently in a correction phase, this correction has not yet completed sufficient turnover from a time perspective. The market is likely to maintain a tug-of-war between bulls and bears for some time. After all, the support from recent Fed rate cut expectations remains, and the short-term bullish momentum has slightly weakened, leading the market into a consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal. On a short-term level, after gold prices retraced to the 4195 line, they have begun to rise slowly. If they can effectively break through yesterday's high of 4219, it means that the short-term bulls are starting to regain control. However, it must be clear that gold has not entered a very strong trend, and blindly chasing after it could easily lead to a passive position. Therefore, in terms of operations in the US market, it is recommended to focus on gradual accumulation, waiting for prices to retrace to the support range of 4203-4213 to gradually build long positions: the lower level of 4203 is the key support for recent fluctuations, while 4213 is the retracement neckline of the slow rising trend for the day. Gradual entry at these two price levels can effectively disperse risk. The upper targets to focus on are the two major resistances of 4250 and 4266: 4250 is a pressure point that has been tested multiple times in the past, and after breaking through, one can look towards the 4266 phase high. If it can hold above 4266, the bulls are expected to initiate a new round of upward movement. Additionally, it is crucial to be alert; if the US market price breaks below the key support of 4200, it may trigger stop-loss orders for short-term bulls, and at that time, the market could drop to the 4180-4185 range, requiring timely adjustments to the operational strategy.

December 5th Gold Market Summary: High Position Fluctuations Await Breakout, Interest Rate Cut Expectations Dominate Direction
This week, the gold market has been particularly challenging, with four consecutive trading days showing long upper and lower shadows in daily candlesticks, and the alternating yin and yang bodies appearing erratic. The hourly chart seems stable, but the daily fluctuations are repeated, causing many simulated traders to stumble, highlighting the current difficulty of the market.
Today's (Friday) core focus is whether gold can leverage potential market movements to complete a breakout. If an effective breakout is achieved during the US trading session, it is expected to attract a large amount of mainstream capital, which is also a key window for the short-term market to break out of fluctuations.
On the fundamental side, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next Thursday (December 11) has already sparked market speculation, with funds positioning for interest rate cut expectations. Although last week's initial unemployment claims fell to a more than three-year low, this strong data was ignored by the market. Even if gold dips, it can rebound to around 4200 USD in the latter half of the night, indicating that the market is eagerly awaiting signals for an interest rate cut. Thus, 4200 USD has formed strong support, and during the same period, the US dollar index has only slightly rebounded, not placing strong pressure on gold.
On the technical side, this week gold has continued to fluctuate at high levels, with the daily chart showing a pattern of alternating doji and long upper and lower shadows. The bullish close on Thursday also confirmed the strength of support below, with a tug-of-war between bulls and bears becoming entrenched. The current price has reached the 24-26 range of the upper track of the downward channel, and attention should be paid to whether the hourly chart can hold this position. If it can break through the resistance, the upper target can be viewed at the 4250-4260 USD range, and 4200 USD will turn into a support level for top-bottom conversion; conversely, attention should be paid to the triangular structure support at 4170-4180 USD below.
Fluctuating markets are normal; after a breakout, one can follow the trend. Wishing everyone a pleasant weekend!
Disclaimer: This article is solely personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Specific trading strategies are subject to real-time conditions. Investment carries risks; proceed with caution. $BTC #比特币VS代币化黄金

#加密市场观察 Silver prices hit a historic high! The increase this year exceeds 90%, can it reach 65 dollars in the future?

Since the beginning of this year, the silver market has entered a super bull market—spot prices have surged by over 90%, significantly outperforming gold; the volatility in the futures market has skyrocketed, with several instances of daily price swings exceeding 5% after October, and both spot and futures prices have continuously set historical records.

This wave of increase is by no means accidental, but rather a triple resonance of supply and demand, policies, and capital. From a core logical perspective, global mined silver production is expected to drop to 820 million ounces by 2025 (a 12% decrease from the peak in 2020), the supply-demand gap continues to widen, and with global inventories declining, the supply in the spot market is tightening, leading to a premium in the London and domestic markets, while the pressure from December deliveries in the U.S. adds further upward momentum. As a product with both financial and commodity attributes, silver benefits from the macro environment of global liquidity easing and is favored by safe-haven funds and investment allocation—global silver investment demand is expected to reach 1.334 billion ounces by 2025 (an 8.2% increase year-on-year), accounting for 37% of total demand, while global silver ETFs have increased their holdings by over 500 tons in six months, becoming a key driver of price increases.

Institutions are very confident about the future market: UBS has raised its silver price target for 2026 to 58-60 dollars per ounce, not ruling out the possibility of reaching 65 dollars; Citigroup and Standard Chartered predict that silver prices will stabilize above 55 dollars in the next two quarters. The medium- to long-term logic supporting the strength of precious metals remains—global central banks are de-dollarizing by purchasing gold, the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, suppressing real interest rates and the dollar, and the safe-haven allocation value of precious metals amid the high valuations of AI tech stocks all provide strong support for silver prices.

However, it is necessary to be cautious as high prices inevitably come with high volatility. Experts remind that current market risks are increasing, and investors must strictly adhere to risk management bottom lines, manage positions and funds based on their own asset conditions and risk tolerance, and avoid blindly chasing highs. Whether this wave of “kingly market” for silver can continue depends critically on whether the supply-demand gap can persist and whether capital inflows are stable, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's policy trends and global inventory changes in the future.

$BTC #加密市场观察 12.05 Financial Data Storm! Under the Fed's interest rate cut game, the market will face severe volatility

On Friday, December 5, the global financial data will be bombarded intensively, coupled with the sensitive point where the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in December rises to 89.2%, the volatility risk in forex, gold, crude oil, and other markets surges, traders need to be particularly vigilant!

European session: European economic data comes into focus

- 15:00 UK November Halifax House Price Index MoM, directly influencing the pound's movement;
- 15:45 France October Industrial Production MoM + Trade Balance, revealing the Eurozone's economic fundamentals;
- 18:00 Eurozone Q3 GDP YoY revision + Employment data final value, providing clues for ECB policy.

US session: Core PCE is the key guide for interest rate cuts

- 21:30 Canada November Employment Change, likely to trigger short-term fluctuations in the Canadian dollar;
- 23:00 US September Core PCE Price Index (YoY + MoM) makes a significant appearance! As the inflation indicator most valued by the Fed, if the data falls as expected to around 2.8%, it will strengthen the expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting gold and non-USD currencies, while putting pressure on the dollar; the Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index and Personal Spending MoM released simultaneously will further reflect the vitality of the US economy.

Early morning the next day: The crude oil market closely monitors supply signals

02:00 US weekly oil rig count released, as a leading indicator of crude oil production, directly affecting international oil price trends.

Currently, the divergence in Fed policy is intensifying, and data performance will directly rewrite the market pricing logic. It is recommended to strictly control positions and stop losses, and to operate flexibly following data guidance.

12/5 Vast Golden Morning Market Outlook

Gold has been fluctuating back and forth recently, buying on dips is the way to go.
Today, the opening price of gold is 4207. Yesterday's trend was quite interesting; it first dropped to a low of 4175 and then rose back, closing at 4208. Overall, it has been oscillating within a range.

Now on the hourly chart, the price has formed a "triangle shape" of oscillation. The lower support has risen to the range of 4163-4175, while there is some resistance near 4220 preventing a rise. This kind of movement indicates that a big move is brewing; in the short term, it will likely continue to oscillate within this small range for a few more days before a significant trend emerges.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, 4215-4220 is a key resistance level, and 4163-4175 is a very solid support. Based on the current market situation, this oscillation does not indicate a drop; rather, it is suitable to wait for a drop before buying. Do not chase after rises or rush to sell on drops; be patient and wait for key price levels to take action.

Intraday trading strategy

If it stabilizes while retracing to the 4165-4175 range, consider buying in batches, targeting 4215-4220. If it breaks through, you can continue to hold for a higher range;

If there is resistance at the 4215-4220 line during a rebound, consider shorting with a light position, targeting downward to 4180-4185. If it fails to hold, further look down to 4165-4170. $SOL #加密市场观察 $BTC

Global Market Dynamics

- US stocks mixed: Signs of a weak labor market continue in the US (private sector jobs decreased by 32,000 in November, long-term unemployed face challenges in reemployment), coupled with investors being cautious ahead of Friday's inflation data, the Dow Jones fell slightly by 0.07%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose slightly by 0.11% and 0.22%, respectively. Meta's stock rose by 3.43% due to plans to cut 30% of the budget for its metaverse division.
- European stocks collectively closed higher: Eurozone retail sales in October increased by 1.5% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, with attention on the progress of Russia-Ukraine talks; the UK FTSE 100 rose by 0.19%, France's CAC40 rose by 0.43%, and Germany's DAX rose by 0.79%; Stellantis received a 'buy' rating from UBS, with its stock rising over 3%.
- Commodity differentiation: International oil prices supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and the Russia-Ukraine stalemate, with US oil rising by 1.22% to $59.67/barrel, and Brent oil rising by 0.94% to $63.26/barrel; expectations of Fed rate cuts and a bullish outlook for gold prices pushed international gold prices up slightly by 0.25% to $4243/ounce, while silver saw a technical correction after peaking, falling by 1.93%. $BTC #ETH走势分析

$BTC # Gold Market Outlook: Short-term Main Decline but the Decline Process Will Fluctuate
There is no need to worry about gold weakening at this point; it is far from the stage of being "cooled down." Previously, I judged that gold showed signs of a peak and pullback, but the recent obvious washout trend is enough to indicate that even if a decline truly begins, the process will oscillate back and forth and will not exhibit a smooth downward trend. Whether in the first round of rise or fall, the speed is often very fast, but the trend's continuity is extremely poor, making it easy to stall midway.

Currently, the support for gold is not only at the 4180 level; the short-term trend line support I provided at 4175 also has supportive strength, and the price at noon just happens to touch this position. While it is possible to participate in the bullish position with a light position at this time, one must not be greedy and certainly must not view this as the bottom for gold. The rebound after the morning's decline has failed to break through the 4200 level, which is enough to confirm the core rhythm of the current market being a main decline with a secondary rise.

From an operational perspective, I will not participate in the current first phase rebound, as the price has reached 4194, and the profit space for further bullishness is quite limited. From a technical standpoint, this wave of decline has already shown the embryonic form of a head and shoulders top, and the right side of the head and shoulders top is currently in the first phase of decline. According to conventional technical trend analysis, there is a high probability of a second stage of decline to follow. However, the current trend line support is relatively strong, and whether or not a second stage of decline occurs will depend heavily on the breakthrough situation of 4202, which is the conversion point of the first wave of decline in the morning; this price level will become an important verification node. #币安区块链周

December Gold Market and Fundamentals

The overnight gold daily line closed with a small bearish candle featuring a long upper shadow, overall not forming an effective breakout, and the price is still operating in the middle-upper range of the daily Bollinger Bands, in a relatively high-level oscillation and consolidation pattern. The breakthrough of previous highs and lows will become the core signal for confirming subsequent trends.

From a fundamental perspective, the November ADP private employment data recorded the largest decline in over two and a half years, with its weak performance mainly driven by layoffs in small businesses. However, official data shows that the overall scale of layoffs remains low, and this data has inherent discrepancies with the private employment statistics published by the Labor Department. Therefore, the market and academia generally believe that it is inappropriate to overinterpret the weakness of the ADP data.

The November ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, released concurrently, was 52.6, basically flat compared to October's 52.4, with service sector activity remaining stable. This trend ensures the fundamental resilience of GDP data and keeps inflation levels within the current range. Considering the current macro environment, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has strong certainty, and the market's pricing for a rate cut is gradually becoming more complete.

It is important to note that the Federal Reserve is about to undergo a leadership transition. Against this backdrop, the December monetary policy meeting is likely to present a policy combination of "dovish rate cut landing + hawkish risk warning." From the perspective of asset pricing logic, the current gold market has already partially priced in rate cut expectations. A short-term correction is essentially a technical adjustment before the trend starts. With the implementation of the rate cut policy and the ongoing accumulation of gold by global central banks providing medium- to long-term support, the probability of gold prices breaking out of the oscillation range and initiating an upward trend will significantly increase. $BTC #特朗普加密新政

$BTC Au Daily Analysis 12/4 Text/Hao Han Liu Jin - Yun Hao

In the early session of the Asian market, the gold price showed signs of pressure and decline, accurately touching the 1-hour cycle 183MA moving average during the price drop, and then quickly stabilizing and rebounding. This perfectly verifies my earlier prediction of the key support level at 4176 (the secondary support below can be focused on 4156).

As of now, the gold price has rebounded to the 4190 level, but has not yet touched the same level 20MA moving average resistance. In the short term, there is still room for further rebound.
From the analysis of the European market trend, the current situation is essentially a technical correction in a downward trend. This rebound is not a signal of trend reversal, but rather provides an excellent opportunity for high short layout. After all, the downward momentum from the previous period has not been completely released, and the overall market sentiment is still under pressure. Blindly chasing long positions can easily lead to passivity.

Based on this, the recommendation for European market operations is to rely on the pressure range to layout short positions, which can be entered in batches in the 4210-4220 range. The first target looks towards the 4180-4160 area; if the market continues to weaken and break the key support, it can further look down near 4140. The core trading idea for the day is to short on rallies, and there is no need to overly worry about the risk of a pullback in the short term. Following the trend is key to grasping market initiative. #币安区块链周

Gold Trading Strategy: Awaiting Non-Farm Payrolls, Key Levels Determine Direction

Yesterday, gold fluctuated and closed with a bearish doji. The ETF reduced holdings by 1.72 tons, confirming cautious short-term capital, and the pattern of liquidation remains unchanged. Before the release of tomorrow's significant non-farm payroll data, the market is likely to continue fluctuating, and the direction may be postponed until after the data is released.

The 4-hour chart shows a high followed by a pullback, leaving a long upper shadow. The line at 4194 has stabilized twice, forming a double bottom structure, which is an ideal buying point for bulls to rely on for defense. However, after a quick rise to 4217 in the morning, there was a rapid pullback. The 30-minute MACD death cross has appeared, and the short-term downward pressure is intensifying. Those who have not entered the market are advised to wait and avoid risks.

Simplified trading ideas:

- If the support at 4194 is broken: Short on a rebound back to 4217, targeting the support zone of 4180-90;
- If the support at 4194 holds: Short in the area of 4240-50, betting on the pressure at the top of the fluctuation;
- If there is a deep pullback to the extreme area of 4120-30: Act decisively to buy low, betting on an oversold rebound.

Note: If the support at 4180-90 fails, it will open up further downside space, and caution is needed for the risk of trend weakening; volatility may intensify before the non-farm payroll data, and strict position control with stop-loss is necessary.

Special Statement: The above content only represents the author's personal views or positions $BTC #加密市场观察

Gold and oil opened high simultaneously! Data and geopolitical factors catalyze trading opportunities here

On the morning of December 4th, spot gold (London gold at $4208.295/ounce, up 0.14%) and WTI crude oil ($59.03/barrel, up 0.14%) opened high simultaneously, driven by two key factors.

U.S. private sector employment fell by 32,000 in November (expected increase of 20,000), with employment stagnation and declining wages reinforcing bets on a Fed rate cut in December, providing valuation support for gold priced in dollars; the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict (Ukraine attacks Russia’s "Friendship" oil pipeline) + the EU's total ban on Russian natural gas by 2027, combined with NATO's $1 billion aid to Ukraine, raises expectations for geopolitical risk and energy supply gaps, boosting oil prices.

Trading perspective: Gold at the $4200 mark turns into support, and short-term oscillation upwards can be expected; caution is needed for the short-term impulse rise of oil, while the long-term value of buying on dips is highlighted. Keep a close eye on U.S. inflation data and developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with risk aversion logic as the main line, and manage positions well. $ETH #加密市场观察

12/4 Vast Gold Market Analysis and Trading Strategy

Recent gold trends have shown a certain pattern: after several trading days of dipping below the 4200 mark before closing, it has ultimately managed to recover above this key position. This "bottom-fishing - stabilizing" pattern precisely confirms my earlier judgment of a rebound logic, and the bullish trend has not changed. The core operation line remains to buy on dips.
Yesterday, gold prices rose above 4240 before fluctuating downward, signaling clearly that if the market wants to break new highs, it must undergo an adjustment period to gather strength. For us, as long as we accurately grasp the entry points during the dips, making steady profits is not difficult. Therefore, it is essential to adhere to the principle of "stability first" in our operations and maintain a firm mindset of buying on dips.

From the 4-hour cycle perspective, we need to closely monitor the resistance zone of 4250-4260 above, while short-term support is focused on the 4195-4200 line. The 4165-4175 range is the key defensive area in this round of fluctuations. The technical fluctuations essentially serve to gather strength for a second bullish assault, and it is recommended to patiently wait for key support levels before positioning. Specific entry and exit signals will be provided in real-time during trading, so please stay alert.

Specific Trading Strategy
Buy directly on the 4200-4205 line during dips; if it drops to the 4185-4190 range, you can gradually add positions, targeting the 4255-4265 line. If resistance is broken, you can continue to hold for higher ranges. $BTC #加密市场观察

$ETH Retail investors lead the precious metals bull market! Gold and silver prices are rising together, and after doubling this year, silver still has room for further increases.

Currently, in the precious metals market, retail investors have transformed from "followers" to "leaders"—latest data from CME confirms that retail funds are reshaping the trading patterns and price logic of gold and silver through low-threshold micro contracts.

In November, the average daily trading volume of CME precious metals soared by 52% year-on-year, with an overall market daily average transaction of 33.1 million contracts (up 10% year-on-year), reaching the second-highest level in history. The core driving force comes from retail investors: the average daily trading volume of micro gold futures surged by 235%, and micro silver futures skyrocketed by 238%. This explosion is by no means coincidental—micro contracts are designed with thresholds of only 1/10 (gold) or 1/5 (silver) of standard contracts, allowing ordinary investors to enter the market without heavy investments. Moreover, the attributes of gold and silver as hedging tools against inflation and geopolitical risks make them more attractive in the current market environment, creating a perfect resonance between the two.

Silver is undoubtedly the "star variety": in November alone, it skyrocketed by 18.6% (with a surge of 14.5% in the last week of the month), breaking through the historical barrier of 55 USD/ounce, and in December it even reached a high of 59.65 USD, with an annual increase of over 100%! Behind this is the dual push of retail funds and the supply-demand gap—demand remains strong while supply continues to tighten, creating a solid support for the continuation of the trend.

What’s more noteworthy is the valuation logic: the long-term price ratio of gold to silver is about 68, and it is currently around 74, which means silver still has room for price adjustments. If it returns to the historical average, prices could potentially hit 65 USD. For investors, while the retail-driven market may amplify short-term volatility, the core trend remains unchanged—low-threshold tools reduce participation costs, the macro environment strengthens risk aversion demand, and the supply-demand gap provides long-term momentum. Precious metals, especially silver, remain high-quality targets in the current market that combine safety and explosive potential. #币安区块链周

#加密市场观察 $ETH 12/3 Vast Gold - Yunhao xoAu Afternoon View
The afternoon gold shows a slow upward trend, currently experiencing slight pullback and fluctuation around the 4210 level, overall in a neutral point where both bulls and bears are contesting, the market temporarily lacks a clear direction. From the chart, the price has not reached our previously expected short target of 4235, and the short-term space is limited in both directions, making blind entry into the market likely to lead to awkward situations of being swept by both sides, thus the core strategy for the afternoon operation is to 'observe and wait', patiently waiting for effective touches at key price levels.
From a technical perspective, the 4180 level below is a strong support area tested multiple times recently, and also a key retracement level in the short-term upward trend. Losing this position may trigger further declines to the 4160-4170 range; above, 4235 is the upper resistance of the previous fluctuation range, compounded by short-term profit-taking pressures from bulls, touching it for the first time is likely to result in a pullback.

Combining the current balanced pattern of bulls and bears, the afternoon strategy remains focused on key level opportunities, and operations for both sides are limited to the first touch to avoid the risk of false breakouts after repeated testing:

Short Position: The first touch near 4235 can allow for light positioning, with stop-loss set above 4247 (to avoid the upper edge of the short-term fluctuation range, preventing false breakouts), targeting down to the 4200-4180 range. If the 4180 support is lost, it can extend down to around 4170;

Long Position: Entering on the first touch in the 4180-4183 range can be allowed, with stop-loss placed below 4168 (below the previous support level to ensure trend validity), targeting up to 4230-4250, and after breaking the 4235 resistance, it can further look towards around 4260.

It is important to remind that gold is still in a large-scale upward fluctuation structure, but the short-term neutral point has limited volatility, so do not rush to enter the market for speculation. In the afternoon, focus on the first touch reactions at 4180 support and 4235 resistance, and if the price remains horizontal for a long time without reaching key levels, it is advisable to continue observing until before the US market opens, waiting for clearer breakout signals to appear, and strictly control positions and stop-losses to avoid blindly holding positions in fluctuating markets.

$ETH #加密市场回调 Tonight, the U.S. data is coming in dense, and a showdown at the gold 4200 mark is underway!
Currently, gold is oscillating around the 4200 round number, with the Federal Reserve's policy game heating up, and is at a critical point of balance between bulls and bears in the short term. Tonight, four core data releases will serve as catalysts for a breakthrough, and the key technical levels will determine the trend direction:
21:15 November ADP Employment (Expected + 25K, Previous + 42K): Weaker data triggers safe-haven buying, and gold prices are expected to break through the 4260 resistance to initiate a fifth wave up, aiming for 4300+; if it exceeds expectations, it may pull back to test the 4220 key support, and if it breaks down, it may test the 4200 neckline.
21:30 September Import Price Index (Expected + 0.1%): Stubborn inflation data strengthens the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations, and gold prices may fall below the short-term uptrend line, pressured to test 4200; if below expectations, it could drive gold prices to confirm a rebound after a pullback, targeting the 4250-4260 resistance range.
22:15 September Industrial Production (Expected + 0.1%): Weak data exacerbates recession concerns, and gold prices are expected to break through the upper limit of the recent oscillation range, rushing towards 4350; if it exceeds expectations, it will maintain oscillation within the 4200-4250 range for washout, with back-and-forth contests between bulls and bears.
23:00 November ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Expected 52.0): Falling below the 50 boom-bust line triggers peak safe-haven sentiment, and gold prices are likely to open up space for upward movement, targeting 4350+; maintaining above 52 in the expansion trend will intensify oscillation in the 4200-4260 range, and the MACD indicator may show rapid switches between golden and death crosses.
Technically, focus on the effectiveness of breaking through the 4200-4220 support band and the 4260-4300 resistance band. After the data is released, if a breakout trend occurs, caution should be exercised regarding the continuation of the trend with volume support, strict stop-loss settings should be established to avoid going against the trend, and follow the breakout direction for operation.