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FED – ADP – PCE: THE WEEK OF MARKET TREND DIRECTION
Next week is the most critical macro data week before the FOMC meeting on 10/12. The focus is on ADP employment and PCE inflation – two indicators that directly impact Fed rate cut expectations.
Main event schedule (US time):
Monday (1/12): Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks
Tuesday (2/12): Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman testifies
Wednesday (3/12): ADP employment report
Thursday (4/12): Weekly unemployment claims
Friday (5/12): PCE & Core PCE
Currently, the market is heavily betting on the scenario of the Fed starting to ease in December. If PCE cools down and labor weakens, risk-on capital could return strongly to crypto, tech stocks, and ETFs. Conversely, “hot” data will cause the market to shake significantly in the short term.
➡️ This is the decision week for interest rate expectations for Q1/2026. Anyone trading short-term must stay close to the developments.
#FedPivot #PCE #Bitcoin

📌 MARKET BRIEF ON 29/11: BTC HOLDS 90K, ETF CASH FLOW DIVERSIFIES STRONGLY

Bitcoin turned back to the range of $90,000–$91,000, altcoins are moving sideways, the Fear & Greed Index rose to 28 (fear zone) indicating that market sentiment remains cautious.
💰 ETF Spot cash flow (28/11)
BTC +$71.3M: Fidelity & Ark bought in, BlackRock sold off -$113.8M
ETH +$77.1M: BlackRock bought heavily +$68.8M
SOL +$5.3M: 21Shares continued to sell -$1.4M
🌍 Global Macroeconomics & Crypto
🇬🇧 The UK demands a report on all crypto transactions from 2026
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan allows payments in stablecoin via sandbox from 2026
🇧🇷 São Paulo pilots blockchain lending $2,800 for farmers
🧩 Notable Developments
CoinShares withdrew the ETF SOL staking application, XRP & LTC
Coinbase “accidentally” posted ICO OpenSea (SEA) and then deleted it immediately
BitMine wallet bought an additional 14,618 ETH ($44.3M) → total holdings >3.6 million ETH (~3% of supply)
📍 Quick Assessment
Cash flow is shifting from BTC to ETH, while altcoins still lack momentum. Whales continue long-term accumulation, contrary to the fear sentiment of retail investors. #CryptoNewss

WHERE IS THE MARKET IN THE PSYCHOLOGICAL CYCLE?

Based on the model of the Psychology of a Market Cycle, the current crypto market is not in the Hope or Disbelief zones, but is in the transition zone between Anxiety → Denial.

In the Anxiety phase, investors begin to worry as prices drop sharply after a peak. Moving to Denial, many still believe "it's just a correction," expecting prices to soon return to previous highs, even though actual cash flow is weakening. This is the current state: confidence has not collapsed, but fear has clearly emerged.
The market cannot yet be Hope, as the most important sign has not appeared: Capitulation (panic selling). A true Hope zone must emerge after investors give up, liquidity dries up, all bad news is out, and prices move sideways to accumulate. Currently, macro risks still exist, and large cash flows have not returned sustainably.
Disbelief is the phase after a bottom is formed, when prices start to rebound 20–40% but most of the market does not dare to believe in a new upward trend. However, the market has not yet entered Disbelief as there is no clear bottom.

Conclusion: The appropriate strategy now is cautious DCA, maintaining liquidity, not going all-in, and not using leverage. This phase is to preserve capital, not to maximize profits. #MarketCycles #BitcoinMarket

The U.S. government officially stamps "approval" on Bitcoin & Crypto – A major turning point for the market!
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under Paul Atkins has sent a strong signal: cryptocurrencies are now considered legal assets by the U.S. government, paving the way for a host of financial products – from ETFs, staking to DeFi – to be legalized within the traditional financial system.
✅ Why this could be the "switch flip" for crypto
The SEC officially declares: the majority of tokens are no longer considered securities; crypto will be regulated under new, clearer laws.
The Project Crypto initiative has been approved — the goal is to transfer the U.S. financial market to on-chain & crypto-friendly, creating a legal framework for the issuance, custody, trading, and staking of digital assets.
This is the first time the U.S. government – through the SEC – has given crypto what is called a clear "stamp of approval."
🔍 Significance for the market
Crypto is now regarded as a legal part of the U.S. financial system, minimizing the legal risks that have long been significant.
Institutional capital (funds, banks, organizations) now has more confidence to flow into crypto — from ETFs to lending, staking, or tokenization of assets.
Crypto commodities are gradually shifting from the niche market – unofficial → mainstream & transparent.
#bitcoin #CryptoRegulationBattle #DigitalAssets

BTC IS "SWINGING" THROUGH THE NIGHT – LIQUIDITY IS BEING PULLED STRONGLY
After one night, the organizers appeared with two large-bodied candles in succession, indicating that the market maker is actively sweeping liquidity in both directions. The price quickly bounced up to the $93k area and then was pushed back down around $90k, causing significant volatility in derivative accounts, characteristic of the consolidation phase before choosing a direction.
In macro terms, the latest statement from Mr. Trump focuses on the goal of pushing U.S. stocks to new highs, while crypto is not mentioned. This clearly reflects that short-term capital flows still favor traditional markets, while crypto is in a waiting phase for policy confirmation.
Technically, the H4 frame shows:
RSI ~50 → neutral
MACD is still positive but momentum is weakening
→ The market is in a range compression area, likely to see a strong breakout in the next 1–2 sessions.
Conclusion: This is the "liquidity hunting" phase, prioritizing risk management, limiting FOMO based on candles.
#bitcoin #CryptoMarketMoves

BITCOIN IS STILL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CYCLE, NOT AT THE PEAK OF 2025

The "2025 peak cycle" chart is spreading widely, but from the perspective of macro data and cash flow, many arguments suggest that the market has not yet entered the peak zone:
1. The cycle has not ended – just shortened:
Bitcoin is currently ~550 days after Halving, equivalent to the middle of the cycle, not the final euphoric phase.
2. The demand structure has changed:
Spot ETFs, financial institutions, and national levels participating have made demand long-term, no longer purely dependent on retail.
3. Market sentiment is still "fearful", not euphoric:
Fear & Greed ~25 while BTC has just corrected ~30% → characteristic of a mid-cycle shakeout, not a peak.
4. Liquidity is returning:
The Fed is pivoting, M2 is expanding, and the U.S. political environment is crypto-friendly → setting the foundation for the next upward phase.
5. Quantitative models still point to late 2025 – early 2026:
Pi Cycle, Power Law, Golden Ratio all place the peak range at $200K–$400K+, not $126K.
Conclusion: The market is in the "boring middle of the cycle" – a stage where smart money accumulates.
#BitcoinCycles #BTCETFSPOT #CryptoMacro

7 PRINCIPLES TO HELP REDUCE RISK WHEN STAKING

Staking creates passive income, but without discipline in risk management, new investors can easily lose money. Below are the fundamental principles that must always be followed:
1. Research the project before sending money:
Prioritize large, transparent blockchains with security audits and strong communities.
2. Do not go 'all-in' on one coin:
Diversifying staking across multiple assets helps reduce price volatility and system failures.
3. Choose reputable validators/exchanges:
Check operational history, slashing rates, and service fees.
4. Monitor the market closely:
Be ready to unstake or reduce positions when macro risks or project issues arise.
5. Prioritize Liquid Staking when liquidity is needed:
Only use large, audited platforms with supporting DeFi ecosystems.
6. Stay updated on legal policies:
Especially important for platforms operating in the US and Europe.
7. Ensure absolute security of private keys:
Do not click on strange links, do not send private keys, do not stake through unknown dApps.
Conclusion: Effective staking is not about high APY, but about the ability to manage long-term risks.
#StakingStrategy #CryptoSecurity #PassiveIncome

STAKING IS NOT AS "EASY" AS YOU THINK — 9 RISKS THAT MANY NEWCOMERS LOSE MONEY
Staking is often seen as a safe channel for generating passive income, but in reality, it still carries many risks that can cause new investors to lose both principal and interest.
1. Price volatility: Staking rewards cannot offset the significant price drops of coins.
2. Lock-up: Unstaking takes from a few days to a few weeks, making it easy to get stuck when the market crashes.
3. Slashing: Validator misconduct → direct loss of staked assets.
4. Security: Insecure wallets, fake dApps → total loss.
5. Centralized exchanges: Staking through CEX still faces risks of exchange collapses like FTX.
6. Non-transparent rewards: Fees and APY may change unexpectedly.
7. Legal issues: The U.S. and many countries are tightening staking regulations, risking asset freezing.
8. Weak tokenomics: Unusually high APY often comes with inflation and price dumping.
9. Liquid Staking & DeFi: Smart contract errors → total loss of assets.
Conclusion: Staking is not bad, but it is only suitable when understanding risks, managing liquidity well, and choosing reputable platforms.
#staking #defi #CryptoRisk

WHY IS STAKING INCREASINGLY ATTRACTIVE FOR NEW INVESTORS?
Staking is becoming a channel for generating stable passive income in the crypto market, as investors hold assets while earning periodic returns.
First – Optimize idle capital:
Staking provides an APY yield based on the coins held, allowing capital to earn profits without trading. When reinvesting rewards, the compound interest effect helps the assets grow over time.
Second – Strengthen network security:
Coins locked in staking reduce the circulating supply, limiting the risk of a 51% attack and increasing stability for the ecosystem. This is a key factor that helps blockchain maintain long-term value.
Third – Environmentally friendly, low cost:
Unlike PoW mining, staking does not require hardware, does not consume electricity, and is suitable for individual investors.
Fourth – Flexible liquidity with Liquid Staking:
Investors still receive staking rewards but can use representative tokens to participate in DeFi, lending – borrowing – farming.
Fifth – Small capital can still participate:
Starting from 0.01 ETH or lower, suitable for new investors.
Conclusion: Staking not only creates passive income but also supports coin prices by reducing supply and encouraging long-term holding. #StakingYield #LiquidStaking #PassiveIncomeCrypto

#fomcwatch FED PREPARING TO END QT – CASH FLOW MAY REVERSE
Historical data shows that each cycle of the Fed ending quantitative tightening (QT) coincides with the mid-term bottoming region of risky asset markets. Most recently, global liquidity recovery after QT led to a strong surge in crypto and stocks.
Currently, the context is repeating:
The pressure of liquidity withdrawal is gradually weakening
Monetary policy is shifting to neutral
Speculative cash flow is beginning to return to high beta markets
This phase typically does not explode immediately but is the final accumulation phase before a major trend forms. Altcoins may still experience fluctuations, but when liquidity truly returns, only assets with strong fundamentals and clear narratives will perform well.
The market does not reward the majority who shout early but rewards those who position themselves early when liquidity has not yet revealed itself.

TRADER SOLANA BEING SECRETLY WITHDRAWN THROUGH CHROME EXTENSION
A Chrome extension named Crypto Copilot – allows swapping Solana tokens directly on X – has been discovered to secretly insert hidden money transfer commands into each transaction since June.
The theft mechanism is very sophisticated:
Transactions are still processed normally on Raydium, but in parallel, the system automatically creates a secondary command to transfer SOL out, while the user interface shows no abnormalities.
Loss levels:
Transactions < 2.6 SOL: deducted 0.0013 SOL
Transactions > 2.6 SOL: deducted 0.05%
→ For example, swapping 100 SOL will cost about 0.05 SOL
Cybersecurity experts warn that the Chrome extension ecosystem is a major weak point for crypto traders, due to the deep intervention rights into the browser and the extremely large number of users.
👉 This risk does not come from blockchain, but from the subjective user intermediary layer.
#solana #CryptoSecurityAlert

HOLIDAY MARKET, BIG MONEY STILL MOVES SILENTLY

US stock markets closed for Thanksgiving, the crypto market is stable: BTC holds between $90K–$91K, ETH around $3K, altcoins stagnate as BTC Dominance rises to 59.2%, indicating that capital still prioritizes leading assets.
On a macro level, Trump announced that the US could eliminate income taxes thanks to customs revenue, while Putin signaled for the first time a willingness to discuss the US peace plan – both of which could influence global risk expectations.
Institutional capital is still quietly expanding:
Bitwise updates AVAX ETF, allowing 70% staking, aiming for a US listing in early 2026.
Amundi (the largest fund in the EU) launches euro tokenized fund certificates on Ethereum.
BONK launches ETP on the SIX Swiss Exchange, opening the door for European capital.
From an industry perspective:
Vitalik raised nearly $765K ETH for secure messaging applications.
Do Kwon seeks to reduce his sentence in the US after serving nearly 3 years.
ALT5 Sigma changes CEO amid tight scrutiny.
In summary: Prices are stable, but infrastructure and institutional capital continue to expand steadily – a typical accumulation state.
#CryptoMarket #etf

PUBLIC COMPANIES ARE QUIETLY ABSORBING BITCOIN SUPPLY
According to BitcoinTreasuries, the top 100 publicly listed companies now hold 1,058,581 BTC. This is no longer a fringe trend — it is a structural shift in how corporate balance sheets treat Bitcoin: from speculative asset to strategic reserve instrument.
MicroStrategy continues to dominate the ranking, but the meaningful signal is breadth, not just size. Mining firms, fintechs, ETFs sponsors, and even non-crypto tech companies are now part of this accumulation wave. This creates a persistent, price-insensitive layer of demand that did not exist in previous cycles.
At current prices, this corporate stash represents over $90 billion in BTC locked away from liquid supply. When combined with ETF custody and long-term holder accumulation, the tradable float on exchanges continues to thin out — even during market pullbacks.
From a market-structure perspective, this explains why deep sell-offs are increasingly met with aggressive spot absorption rather than panic-driven cascade selling as seen in past cycles.
Bitcoin is no longer just a retail-driven volatility asset. It is becoming corporate treasury collateral in real time.
#Bitcoinadoption #CorporateTreasury #CryptoMarkets

ARTHUR HAYES RETURNS TO ENA – IS THE EARLY CASH FLOW SIGNAL JUST SHORT-TERM FOMO?

In the past 24 hours, on-chain data recorded Arthur Hayes returning to accumulate ENA, ETHFI, and PENDLE. Specifically for ENA, he has amassed about 4.89 million tokens through channels like FalconX, with a total purchase value of over 1.9 million USD. Notably, Hayes had previously taken profits on ENA at a high price range, indicating this is a repositioning cycle from a macro perspective, not a random trade.

Immediately, cash flow and social discussions have surged towards ENA, triggering short-term FOMO. However, from a technical standpoint, ENA's daily trend remains negative: the RSI has not surpassed 50, and the price structure has not confirmed a clear reversal. Meanwhile, BTC continues to dominate the entire market, while most altcoins lack recovery momentum.

In a positive scenario, Hayes is betting early on DeFi to anticipate a loosening cycle as the Fed shifts stance. Conversely, the risk lies in the market liquidity not truly returning, with ENA's cash flow still heavily concentrated in LST channels.

Conclusion: This is a signal worth monitoring, but it is not sufficient to reverse the market trend. Investors need to prioritize risk management over chasing effects.
#altcoinseason #defi #OnChainDataInsights

CREDIT TIGHTENING IN THE U.S. - EARLY WARNING FOR THE GROWTH CYCLE

The rate of credit applications denied in the U.S. has risen to 24.8%, the highest since 2014. Compared to early 2020, this index has increased by +10.4 percentage points, clearly reflecting that credit conditions are tightening significantly.
Notably, low and middle-income groups are the most affected by denials. This group relies on credit for consumption, buying cars, home repairs, and small cash flow. When credit is tight, consumption will slow down – while consumption accounts for a large portion of U.S. GDP.
This is the lag of the tightening cycle 2022–2024: Even though the Fed shows signs of preparing to lower interest rates, the banking system is not ready to loosen lending standards due to liquidity risk pressures.
Main macroeconomic impacts:
Weakening demand for loans.
Consumption may slow down in the coming quarters.
The Fed is unlikely to “pivot” as quickly as expected.
For the financial market, this is a double signal:
Unfavorable for stocks, especially real estate, consumer finance.
But it supports defensive cash flows: USD, gold, bonds, and Bitcoin.
In short: Credit is tight – smart money seeks refuge.
#bitcoin #Macro #RateCut

IS IT POSSIBLE TO “SWITCH AXIS” TO CRYPTO – THE MARKET IS REPRICING RISK
Kevin Hassett – a leading crypto-friendly candidate – is emerging as a potential replacement for Jerome Powell at the Fed. The key point: Hassett has previously served on the advisory board of Coinbase and has a markedly softer stance on digital assets.
If this scenario becomes reality, the market faces two extremely strong macro pushes:
A more crypto-friendly policy → ETF, stablecoin, digital banking being “unleashed” faster.
The target interest rate could drop to 1% → global liquidity strongly shifting towards “risk-on”.
Historically, each Fed cycle reversing monetary policy has been associated with a major bull market in crypto. Given the current context: ETFs are operational, institutions have taken positions, if the Fed actually changes leadership and tone, the valuation of the entire risky asset market will need to reset to a higher baseline.
The market has not fully reflected this scenario. But smart money tends to move ahead of policy expectations by several months.
#bitcoin #RateCut #CryptoETFs

13 BILLION USD BTC OPTIONS EXPIRING SOON: THE 101,000 USD LEVEL IS BEING "PULLED" FOR LIQUIDITY
On November 28, 2025, the market will witness ~150,000 Bitcoin options contracts expiring, with a notional value exceeding 13 billion USD – one of the largest expiry events in Q4.
The notable points are:
Max Pain Price: 101,000 USD – the price level causing most option holders to incur losses.
Put/Call Ratio = 0.61 → the number of Call contracts dominates, reflecting that market sentiment is still leaning towards a bullish scenario.
Mechanically, when the amount of expiring options is sufficiently large, prices tend to be "pulled" closer to the Max Pain level in the final sessions due to the hedging activities of market makers. This creates the phenomenon:
Short-term volatility increases significantly
Liquidity concentrates around major strike levels near 100K – 102K USD
If BTC can maintain its price structure above the nearest support levels, the 101,000 USD level could very well become a price magnet this week. Conversely, if the selling pressure from hedging suddenly spikes, the market may experience rapid "margin flush" events.
This week is crucial for determining BTC's next moves in early December.
#BitcoinOptions #BTC #maxpain

USDC MINT 1.25 BILLION USD IN 1 DAY – IS USDT OR USDC SAFER?
Circle has just minted an additional 1.25 billion USD USDC today, extending the total of 17.25 billion USD in stablecoins injected into the market since the crash on October 11. The cash flow is clearly returning, but the important question is: which is more sustainable, USDT or USDC?
USDC – transparent, institutional standard
Reserves mainly consist of US T-bills + cash
Regular audits, subject to strict oversight from the US
Suitable for ETFs, funds, financial institutions

USDT – number 1 in liquidity, extremely high profits
Total supply leads the stablecoin market
Diverse reserves: T-bills, BTC, gold
Very high profits, but transparency risks are still a drawback
Conclusion on cash flow:
USDC = safe – traditional financial standard
USDT = liquidity – strength of the crypto ecosystem
Circle's continuous strong minting of USDC indicates that institutional capital is clearly returning, laying the foundation for the next recovery phase of the market.
#bitcoin #stablecoin #USDC

BTC PULLING LIQUIDITY FROM ABOVE – THE $100K REGION IS BEING 'TARGETED'

In the past 24 hours, the market recorded $303.7 million USD in liquidation orders, with shorts being overwhelmingly liquidated ($241.1M) compared to longs ($62.6M). This is a typical sign of a local short squeeze, as prices move against the expectations of the majority of derivatives.
The liquidity heatmap data from Coinglass shows a dense cluster of liquidity centered around the $98,000–$102,000 mark. In the current market structure, large liquidity zones above often act as 'price magnets', especially when:
Short pressure remains high
Funding gradually neutral
Spot ETFs maintain stable cash flow
Combined with seasonal factors: Thanksgiving + Santa Rally, the probability of BTC continuing to expand the rebound towards the psychological $100,000 region is being priced higher by the market. Behaviorally, this is a stage where market makers prioritize pulling prices to areas with the most pending orders to maximize trading liquidity.
In the short term, if $BTC holds the 88k–90k region, the scenario of testing $100k is entirely feasible in the upcoming sessions.
#bitcoin #BTC

BITCOIN HOLDS ICHIMOKU – A 12% RECOVERY NOT BY CHANCE
Weekly chart of $BTC

has just issued a very notable technical signal: the price has bounced exactly from the Ichimoku cloud – the confluence area between trend, momentum, and medium-term support. This reaction has created a bounce of over 12% in a short period, indicating effective defensive buying at the low range.

In terms of structure, the Ichimoku cloud is still below the price, while the thickness of the cloud is large enough to act as a “risk absorption cushion” amidst high macro volatility. The most important thing right now is the weekly candle close:

If it closes above the cloud, BTC will confirm a momentum recovery phase, opening up the scenario of returning to the resistance zone of 98k–103k.
If it closes below the cloud, the market is likely to enter an extended accumulation phase, instead of immediately reversing to an uptrend.
In the context of ETF capital flows stabilizing again, the Fed gradually leaning towards easing, and system liquidity improving, this bounce from Ichimoku this time carries a higher probability significance than usual.
Short-term: the market is at a decisive trend area.
#BitcoinDunyamiz #BTC #CryptoMarket