BITCOIN IS STILL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CYCLE, NOT AT THE PEAK OF 2025
The "2025 peak cycle" chart is spreading widely, but from the perspective of macro data and cash flow, many arguments suggest that the market has not yet entered the peak zone:
1. The cycle has not ended – just shortened:
Bitcoin is currently ~550 days after Halving, equivalent to the middle of the cycle, not the final euphoric phase.
2. The demand structure has changed:
Spot ETFs, financial institutions, and national levels participating have made demand long-term, no longer purely dependent on retail.
3. Market sentiment is still "fearful", not euphoric:
Fear & Greed ~25 while BTC has just corrected ~30% → characteristic of a mid-cycle shakeout, not a peak.
4. Liquidity is returning:
The Fed is pivoting, M2 is expanding, and the U.S. political environment is crypto-friendly → setting the foundation for the next upward phase.
5. Quantitative models still point to late 2025 – early 2026:
Pi Cycle, Power Law, Golden Ratio all place the peak range at $200K–$400K+, not $126K.
Conclusion: The market is in the "boring middle of the cycle" – a stage where smart money accumulates.
