The market in the past two days has truly been 'what you fear most will come to pass.' Bitcoin has continuously broken through key support, and the sentiment has exploded into extreme panic index 10—this is the second time this year. The whole network is calling for a bear market, and some even say the bull market is officially dead. But for me, although the trend has weakened, it has actually become easier to operate.

Important support has continuously failed, and the trend cannot be strongly supported in the short term.

This round of the bull market has never effectively broken below the 50-week/60-week moving averages, but this time they have both failed; the previous low of 98200 barely struggled before falling below. These are all 'volume-driven breakdowns,' and if it can't recover in the short term, it's an effective breakdown.

Last night, 94000 was able to stop the decline because it hit the weekly trend line + lower boundary of the downtrend channel + Fibonacci 0.382 'triple support'. But the problem is—the rebound is too weak, with no long lower shadows, no volume, purely following the after-hours US stock market. If the shorts press down again, this position will become dangerous.

If the two near supports are lost again, the market will look worse. After the weekend, I tend to believe: the short-term downtrend is not over yet, but there will be a decent rebound in between.

98000 will become a relatively key resistance level in the short term—be careful of a second decline if it doesn't get above.

Neither policy nor technical aspects support a continued bull run.

Federal Reserve committee members have been hawkish, and expectations for a rate cut in December have dropped below 50%. The market was previously priced on 'December must cut', and this change must be adjusted and digested.

This wave of decline has almost no rebound, liquidity is poor, and with deteriorating sentiment... being squeezed from three sides, it is very difficult to reverse in the short term.

The four-hour structure of ETH gives some hope—long lower shadows, shrinking bearish candle bodies, and clear support below, but there are many liquidations with little amount, and the bulls are already 'running out of fuel'. The market is extremely panicked + RSI is oversold, a rebound may come at any time, but the premise is that it must stabilize around 3000.

Want a decent market by the end of the year? Very difficult, unless there is a strong external stimulus.

The drawdown in the past six months has been too harsh, but since the trend has changed, don't fight the market head-on.

The past cannot be changed; what can be done is to reduce damage in the upcoming market and wait for counterattack opportunities.

Since the trend has turned bearish, lower your expectations; preserving strength is the most important.

My operational thinking is very clear:

1) Spot: Reduce positions on rallies, do not cut panic positions.

Do not sell in panic index level 10, wait for a decent rebound.

My plan is to gradually buy in: 106000--111000

Reduce positions near these two points. For quick moves, around 100000 is a good selling point.

2) Futures: A bear market is more suitable for shorting.

With the funds released from selling spot, I plan to open low-leverage (1x) short positions, gradually positioning for the bear market, avoiding getting caught selling.

Add shorts as the price rises, do not chase down when it falls.

The only thing that can save the market in the short term is the US stock market.

The crypto market cannot save itself right now, it depends on the direction of the US stock market.

However, ETH, BNB, and LTC do show obvious signs of market support; the structure is not completely broken. The anonymous coin sector (like $ZEC ) instead rebounded strongly, showing a bit of the 'spark' potential; let's see if it can turn into a wildfire.

The market will never only fall without rising, especially now that contracts dominate and the shorts are too fat—this part of liquidity cannot be overlooked by the main players.

Short-term reference for mainstream coins

$DOGE : 0.168–0.17 → Obvious resistance level, can short. If there's a strong recovery, you can go long.


Other mainstreams like #sol 、#ETH → After filling the upper gap, there is a high probability of another leg down.

Pay attention to next week's employment data; that will be the real catalyst that can drive the next move.

Panic is the norm, the trend is the signal.

My current thinking is simple: reduce positions on rebounds, short with low leverage, protect the principal, and survive.

The harder the market is to navigate, the steadier you must be, and you must not gamble.