To be honest, this recent drop is no longer just about the 'weak crypto market'. In the past few days, everyone blamed Bitcoin for being weak, but looking back now, it turns out that it’s not Bitcoin that’s weak; it's that global risk assets have all taken a hit.

Last night, everything plunged together: US stocks, gold, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks all fell sharply. This scene last appeared during the liquidity crisis of the pandemic. At that time, cash was more important than gold, and everything that could be sold was dumped. The 312 event in the crypto world came about this way.

This time, it's the same old taste.

The real trigger point: collapse of interest rate cut expectations + AI bubble questioned by capital.

This round of global crash is actually just two things:

1) The expectation of interest rate cuts has completely collapsed.

This is a heavy blow to all risk assets.

2) The AI narrative has been put on trial.

NVIDIA's earnings report was impressive, but it didn't lead to a rise, instead it became an excuse for institutions to escape.
The big short seller Burry even openly mocked the AI demand as 'ridiculously small'.

AI, once repriced by capital, tech stocks will have a domino effect:

NVIDIA hit 5 trillion, then fell back to 4 trillion.
Microsoft dropped to 3.5 trillion.
Apple has been dragged off its pedestal.

On average, each company evaporated 500 billion, and the overall level of global risk assets has declined, making the cryptocurrency market even worse.

But don't forget: when the risk market rebounds, the cryptocurrency market is always the vanguard.

The biggest culprit of the cryptocurrency market crash: ETF & DAT double kill.

Bitcoin ETF saw an outflow of 900 million dollars last night.

This is the 'super main force capital' that can truly affect the trend.

This round of the bull market was brought about by the opening of ETFs, and now that ETFs are starting to 'reverse the opening', the cryptocurrency market will naturally face a blackout.

In comparison, the death spiral of DAT is even scarier:

Stock prices falling below 1 USD will lead to delisting from US stocks.

To preserve the shell, we can only sell coins to buy back stocks.

The more you sell coins, the more they drop → The stock price can't hold up → And continue selling coins

This is a textbook-level spiral.

Now there are bloody examples emerging:

  • SQNS: 11.7 million cost to buy BTC, started dumping at 10.8 million last week.

    FGNX: ETH 4000 cost, recently cut losses to exit.

    BMNR: 4000 cost, never sold, now total losses exceed 4 billion USD.

As long as Bitcoin halves again, its losses can match the hole left by the FTX explosion.


This round of the bull market succeeded because of ETF & DAT, and failed because of ETF & DAT.

The whales are also running: but the underlying logic is 'habitual selling'.

The collective escape of the whales this time is actually not hard to understand:

  • Extremely low cost

    Habitually pocketing at the end of the cycle

    Market sentiment + strengthened regulation intensifies panic.

What’s more provocative is that several scammer whales' coins have been caught:

  • Qian Zhiming: 200,000

    Chen Zhi: 127,000

    KK She Zhijiang: 100,000

These messages have been amplified infinitely, directly pushing panic to the ceiling.

The lack of privacy is also a key issue; Bitcoin is now being watched closely by governments worldwide, and hackers don't even dare to leave a BTC address, which is why ZEC suddenly became the 'privacy alternative'.

The altcoin market has given a little hope: at least there are no further cuts.

Although altcoins have dropped these days, they haven't plummeted, indicating:

  • The project party doesn't want to kick someone when they're down.

    The market makers also think the price is low enough.

    The overall cash-out amount is limited.

This is actually a good sign: as long as Bitcoin stops falling, altcoins will rise immediately.
I still maintain my previous view: in December, altcoins may still have a decent rally (considering a rebound to short).

But remember one thing: the CEX era is coming to an end; the ones that can survive through bull and bear markets in the future will definitely be value coins + projects with real blood generation.
Other altcoins should not expect long-term value.

My final point

As I write this, Bitcoin has dropped to 82,000, and the whole network has liquidated 2 billion.

In such a market, I only suggest two things:

1. Never touch leverage

The leverage you took on today may become someone else's bottom position tomorrow.

2. If you want to buy the dip, you can only do dollar-cost averaging.

Because - the real bottom has not yet appeared.

Now is a period of systemic risk coordination; any single-point logic is useless; we must wait for the market to restore liquidity, ETFs to stop flowing out, and the whale selling pressure to be fully released.

Now, every plunge feels like: 'You thought it was the bottom? Sorry, that's an illusion.'