The latest price of Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) is $97,085.99, with a 24-hour drop of 5.77%, hitting a low of $95,699.19, and a trading volume exceeding $4.5 billion. This collapse in the cryptocurrency market is unrelated to the projects; it is entirely dragged down by the crash of the US stock market, revealing the interconnectedness of high-risk assets.

1. The US stock market's 'opening black' breaks historical patterns
According to historical experience, the US stock market usually strengthens 1-2 weeks after the government shutdown ends, but on the first day back, the three major indices collectively plummeted, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2%. The AI, chip, and cryptocurrency concept sectors were all in the red, with Nvidia and Tesla leading the decline. This crash in the US stock market directly transmits to the cryptocurrency market, causing Bitcoin to fall below the critical threshold of $100,000 once again, triggering a chain panic sell-off.

II. Double Contradictions Ignite Turbulence
1. Data Anxiety Disrupts Rate Cut Expectations
After the government resumes work, delayed data for non-farm payrolls and retail from September to October will be released in concentrated form, directly affecting the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision in December. Previously, the probability of a rate cut in December dropped sharply from 69% to 52%, with funds betting on 'rate cut trades' retreating from risk assets, with Bitcoin being the first to suffer.
2. Alibaba Qwen Ignites AI Panic
Alibaba launched a GPT-like proxy AI called 'Qwen', raising concerns on Wall Street that China's AI could impact the returns of American tech giants through an open-source and free model. Coupled with Meta's cash flow pressure and Oracle's soaring capital expenditures, short sellers amplified panic before Nvidia's earnings report and aggressively sold off, transmitting the sentiment to the cryptocurrency market.

III. Liquidity is Key to Year-End Market
After the government restarts, there will be a large fiscal injection, and the stimulus strength is unlikely to diminish before the midterm elections. Several officials have hinted that the Federal Reserve may passively expand its balance sheet due to a decline in reserves. By the end of October, the Federal Reserve had already injected liquidity, with a 67.6% probability of a rate cut in December. How quickly liquidity can return is the core of the market.

IV. Technical Analysis: Deep Washout or Trend Reversal?
The cryptocurrency market and US stock indicators have generally broken down, with the Nasdaq falling to the 50-day moving average. If it holds, bulls still have a chance; if it breaks, it will enter a technical adjustment. Short sellers chose to sell off on the first day the government reopened, which is a typical psychological tactic that both harvests following bulls and clears positions for the year-end market.

Currently, Bitcoin has fallen below 98,000, with short-term support at 95,000 and 90,000, and resistance during rebounds at 98,000 and 100,000. Want to know the real-time support and resistance for BTC, and the liquidity return signals? Follow me for real-time market analysis and precise operations in the turbulent market to avoid pitfalls!

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