Bitcoin rebounds off long-term trendline again, with analysts forecasting a surge toward $230K by early 2026 if momentum holds.
Early June highs and lows fall within a key 12-day window, reinforcing bullish bias and signaling trend continuation this month.
Q2's +32.47% recovery mirrors past halving-year rallies, suggesting Bitcoin could repeat its historic Q4 strength in 2025.
Bitcoin’s post-halving strength is drawing fresh attention from technical analysts who now anticipate a major breakout. Three distinct data points suggest bullish momentum is building toward a potential rally as high as $230,000.
Bitcoin Mean Reversion Pattern Targets Explosive Upside
Bitcoin has respected a rising mean reversion trendline since late 2023, anchoring each major pullback within a broader uptrend. This behavior continues to support bullish sentiment as price returns consistently to its long-term average.
Source: (X)
The analysis above has provided insights into Bitcoin's structured mean reversion across the weekly chart. This study notes that since 2022, each parabolic move has topped and reverted precisely to a central ascending support line. The latest pullback in May 2025 once again touched this line before bouncing near $90,000, signaling strength.
Looking deeper, the expert suggests a breakout above the central line could propel Bitcoin to $230,000 by early 2026. This trajectory follows a familiar rhythm: curved rise, rounded top, sharp reversion, and new expansion. A further upside to consider is how the trendline has acted as dynamic support through each correction, affirming Bitcoin’s bullish structure.
Early June Highs Suggest Bullish Continuation
Bitcoin’s monthly highs and lows often form within the first 12 trading days, shaping sentiment for the rest of the month. So far in June, this pattern is once again playing out.
Source: (X)
There is also another detailed analysis of Bitcoin’s early-month behavior. According to this data, 80.7% of monthly pivots—highs or lows—form by the 12th trading day. June’s current low was set on the 5th, and the high on the 9th, placing both within this critical window.
It’s crucial to acknowledge that the first large moves in these windows are frequently fake-outs. The expert notes that Bitcoin’s 5%+ surge in early June may represent just the setup for sustained upside. Therefore, bullish momentum remains intact above $109,000, with structure favoring further gains.
Q2 Bounce Revives Hopes for Strong Year-End Rally
Bitcoin’s historical quarterly returns suggest strong second and fourth quarters in halving and post-halving years. This trend strengthens the bullish case for 2025.
Source: Coinvo
Market maestros have reviewed Bitcoin’s decade-long return data, highlighting strong recovery behavior in Q2s following weak Q1s. In 2024, Q1 declined -11.82%, but Q2 rebounded sharply with +32.47% gains—echoing 2020’s pattern. Looking at it from another angle reveals that Q4 averages the highest returns, especially when halving years precede it.
The analysts are leaning bullish. Structural support, early-month breakout potential, and historic quarterly momentum all align. Bitcoin’s path to $230,000 may only be getting started.
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