U.S. Dollar’s Long-Term Decline Fuels Bullish Outlook for Bitcoin and Gold
The U.S. dollar (DXY) is experiencing a structural decline, with analysts pointing to a deeper monetary transformation that could boost demand for Bitcoin and other scarce assets. Since the start of 2025, the U.S. Dollar Index has dropped 11%, reaching levels last seen in April 2022. Market reactions have remained muted, but analysts warn this may be the beginning of a longer-term transition in the global financial system.
According to independent macro strategist Lyn Alden, a weakening dollar is not only likely — it may be necessary to stabilize the U.S. economy and support global liquidity. In her May 4 newsletter, Alden argued that a “controlled retreat from dollar hegemony” could be one of the few viable strategies left for the U.S. to manage its massive debt load and economic imbalances.
Why a Weaker Dollar May Be Deliberate
The U.S. financial system is heavily reliant on credit expansion and dollar liquidity. With $102 trillion in dollar-denominated debt and just $5.8 trillion in base money in circulation, the system resembles “a game of musical chairs,” Alden said. During periods of liquidity stress — like March 2020 — the Federal Reserve has had to inject trillions in emergency capital to prevent collapse.
But this recurring intervention has created long-term inflationary risks, especially for lower-income Americans. Now, under political pressure from the Trump administration and amid rising trade protectionism, the U.S. appears to be moving away from strong-dollar policies.
“I view the United States and indeed the global financial system as likely beginning a very long-term transition,” Alden wrote.
BTC vs. DXY: A Historic Inverse Correlation
Bitcoin (BTC) — currently trading at $97,133 — has historically shown inverse correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index. When the DXY weakens, investors often rotate into Bitcoin and gold as stores of value. Analysts note that major BTC rallies have often followed sustained drops in the DXY, including the bull runs of 2020 and 2024.
Since early April 2025, DXY has dropped below 100 for the first time in two years, while Bitcoin has surged over 15%, reflecting growing interest from institutional investors. If past trends hold, this divergence could mark the beginning of a new BTC price expansion toward $100,000 and beyond.
Global Rotation Into Neutral Reserve Assets
As trust in the dollar erodes, both Bitcoin and gold are increasingly being viewed as neutral reserve assets. Several sovereign wealth funds, state entities, and institutional investors are already pivoting toward BTC:
El Salvador and Bhutan are mining and buying Bitcoin directly.
Wisconsin’s state pension fund and Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala have spot BTC ETF exposure.
The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund holds BTC indirectly via shares in Strategy, Coinbase, and Riot.
Over 13,000 U.S. companies and institutions now hold some Bitcoin exposure.
At the same time, global trade is increasingly being settled in non-dollar currencies. Yuan cross-border payments hit a record in March, and the euro has gained 10% against the dollar since February 2025, despite lower European Central Bank rates.
De-Dollarization Is No Longer a Theory — It’s Happening
The global shift away from the dollar — long theorized — is now actively reshaping trade, finance, and reserves management. In this environment, Bitcoin stands out for its political neutrality, fixed supply, and borderless nature.
As the U.S. grapples with rising deficits, geopolitical risk, and fiscal fragility, Bitcoin’s value proposition as “digital gold” and monetary alternative is gaining traction, according to Cointelegraph.
