The MJD Report

The current Bitcoin cycle carries a distinctly different energy than those that came before it. While past bull markets were driven largely by retail enthusiasm and global liquidity expansion, this one unfolds against an entirely new macroeconomic backdrop. The chart comparing Bitcoin’s price with the Year-over-Year growth of the Global M2 Money Supply illustrates how deeply intertwined Bitcoin has been with the flow of global liquidity since its inception. The peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 align closely with periods of rapid monetary expansion, showing how central bank policy once acted as the invisible hand guiding Bitcoin’s trajectory. Yet this time, despite a contraction in global money supply, Bitcoin continues to advance—signaling that the forces shaping its performance have evolved in profound ways.

Historically, Bitcoin’s greatest bull runs have coincided with aggressive liquidity injections by central banks. The M2 money supply, which represents the total volume of cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money, has long been a reliable indicator of global risk appetite. When the green shaded area of the chart—representing M2 growth—expanded, it reflected abundant liquidity in financial markets. This influx of capital naturally spilled into speculative and high-growth assets like Bitcoin. The correlation was particularly striking in 2013 and 2021, when surging liquidity perfectly overlapped with Bitcoin’s parabolic rises. The 2017 rally, though occurring during a period of milder money expansion, still benefited from a broad environment of easy monetary policy and low interest rates.

The current cycle breaks that pattern entirely. Following the unprecedented stimulus measures of 2020 and 2021, global central banks pivoted sharply toward tightening. The green M2 growth line collapsed, entering negative territory through 2022 and 2023, as policymakers fought inflation with aggressive rate hikes and balance sheet reductions. According to past cycles, such a contraction in liquidity should have triggered a deep and prolonged bear market in risk assets. Yet Bitcoin defied those expectations. While it did correct from its 2021 highs, it showed a level of resilience unseen in previous downturns and began climbing again, even as the M2 growth remained flat or negative.

This decoupling suggests that Bitcoin is no longer merely a liquidity-driven speculative asset. Instead, it has evolved into a maturing macro asset class with new structural drivers. The most significant among these is the arrival of regulated financial instruments—particularly spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). These ETFs have fundamentally changed how capital flows into Bitcoin. For the first time, institutional investors can gain exposure through regulated, familiar vehicles without navigating the complexities of digital custody. This has introduced a steady, sustained source of demand that operates independently of global liquidity trends. Unlike the retail-driven waves of prior cycles, today’s demand is institutional, persistent, and anchored in long-term portfolio strategy rather than short-term speculation.

Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset goes hand in hand with this structural shift. Its four-year halving cycle remains a defining feature, reinforcing a programmatic supply constraint that contrasts sharply with the limitless money creation of fiat systems. Yet as Bitcoin’s total market capitalization grows, its volatility continues to decline. The days of one-hundred-fold surges may be over, but in their place is a steadier and more sustainable growth profile. This evolution is part of Bitcoin’s transition from a volatile experimental currency to a recognized store of value and hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty. Institutional adoption reinforces this perception, lending credibility and stability while transforming the market’s demographic composition.

The narrative that once defined Bitcoin—an outsider’s rebellion against traditional finance—has evolved into one of integration. Financial advisors, hedge funds, and even sovereign entities now treat Bitcoin as a legitimate component of diversified portfolios. The question has shifted from whether institutions will adopt Bitcoin to how much exposure they are willing to take. Each allocation reinforces its legitimacy and further embeds it into the fabric of global finance. In this sense, the cycle is not just another speculative phase; it is a redefinition of Bitcoin’s role in the broader economic system.

Looking forward, the chart’s projection into 2025 shows a possible stabilization or mild recovery in global M2 growth. If central banks ease their tightening stance or allow liquidity to expand gradually, the macro backdrop could once again align favorably for risk assets. Combined with the steady institutional demand through regulated investment vehicles, this creates the potential for a more measured but powerful rally. Unlike previous explosive retail manias, the next phase of growth may unfold as a prolonged, institutionally anchored ascent, driven less by FOMO and more by fundamental allocation decisions.

This marks the true maturation of Bitcoin’s market cycle. It is no longer simply reacting to global liquidity but asserting itself as a structural component of the global financial landscape. The decoupling visible on the chart is not a temporary anomaly—it is the sign of an asset transitioning from speculative novelty to established macro instrument. Bitcoin is evolving into a global reserve-like digital asset whose behavior is increasingly shaped by institutional participation and macroeconomic positioning rather than retail speculation and central bank liquidity alone.

The feeling that this cycle is different is not an illusion—it is a reflection of Bitcoin’s coming of age. The once volatile and liquidity-dependent asset has begun standing on its own foundation. As global money supply stabilizes and institutional adoption deepens, Bitcoin’s path forward appears less about cyclical hype and more about enduring integration into the world’s financial system. This cycle is not just another chapter in Bitcoin’s history; it is the beginning of its new era as a permanent fixture in the global macro landscape.
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The conversation around altcoins and their market cycle has always fascinated traders, investors, and analysts who closely track the pulse of the crypto economy. Bitcoin often dominates the spotlight, and rightly so, as it remains the most secure, decentralized, and widely adopted digital asset. Yet, beneath the surface of Bitcoin’s dominance lies a market brimming with potential. Altcoins, which encompass every cryptocurrency outside of Bitcoin and stablecoins, represent the lifeblood of innovation in this industry. They are the projects building decentralized platforms, layer one blockchains, oracles, metaverse applications, scaling solutions, and DeFi protocols. To understand whether we are in an altcoin season or not, it is crucial to observe the behavior of the total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins, as this reveals the true speculative appetite and capital flow toward innovation-driven assets.

As of now, the altcoin market cap excluding stablecoins sits just shy of its previous all-time high, lacking an additional eleven point seven percent push to confirm new highs. This figure may seem minor, yet in crypto markets, the final stretch to break previous resistance levels often defines the momentum that dictates the next wave of expansion. Traders recognize that until this threshold is surpassed, the market cannot truly be declared in altseason. Altseason is not a casual term; it represents a phase where altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin, attracting massive liquidity inflows, and driving narratives around smaller-cap tokens that often post multiples beyond what BTC delivers.

Historically, altseasons have occurred when Bitcoin cools down after a period of strong dominance and capital rotates into riskier bets. This is visible when Bitcoin’s dominance metric, which measures its share of total crypto market capitalization, begins to decline while the altcoin share climbs rapidly. The current situation demonstrates a buildup of energy in the altcoin market, but not yet the breakout that confirms euphoria. Investors remain cautious because Bitcoin’s strong price action has kept capital concentrated, even as certain altcoins attempt to rally. Until the collective market cap breaks into uncharted territory, traders will continue to exercise restraint, waiting for the unmistakable signal that altseason has officially begun.

The implications of this potential breakout are significant. If the altcoin market climbs beyond its previous highs, a flood of retail participation could follow. Projects in decentralized finance, artificial intelligence, gaming, and infrastructure tokens often become the center of attention during such periods. These cycles feed on narrative and speculation, where liquidity moves quickly across trending projects. For example, in prior cycles, DeFi tokens exploded as yield farming became a buzzword, then NFTs and metaverse tokens dominated as mainstream adoption narratives took hold. In the current environment, narratives such as restaking protocols, real-world asset tokenization, and artificial intelligence driven crypto projects could lead the charge if capital rotation accelerates.

It is also important to recognize that altseasons are not uniform across all projects. While the total market cap may surge, gains are usually distributed unevenly. Established layer one blockchains like Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche often lead the initial move, providing a signal of strength for the broader market. Mid-cap projects, particularly those with real adoption and strong communities, tend to follow closely. Only later in the cycle do smaller and riskier projects benefit from speculative mania. Understanding this sequencing allows experienced investors to allocate capital strategically rather than chasing parabolic moves when risks are highest.

There are, however, risks associated with assuming altseason will arrive in a linear fashion. Regulatory developments, macroeconomic shifts, and Bitcoin’s own price behavior can all affect whether capital truly rotates into altcoins. If Bitcoin continues to command dominance by breaking new highs itself, altcoins may lag longer than expected. Similarly, global liquidity tightening or negative headlines around crypto regulation can stall momentum. It is this uncertainty that keeps the market cautious even as excitement builds. Traders must balance the optimism of a potential breakout with the realism that crypto markets rarely move in straight lines.

Yet despite these uncertainties, the long-term trajectory of altcoins remains promising. Every cycle introduces new technologies, use cases, and communities that further entrench crypto into the mainstream. The fact that altcoin market capitalization is once again testing previous highs is itself a testament to the resilience of innovation in the sector. From decentralized finance to blockchain gaming, the ecosystem is richer and more diverse than in any previous cycle. The only question is when the spark of liquidity rotation will ignite and push the market into full altseason.

For now, observers agree that the altcoin market needs that final eleven point seven percent push to break records. When that happens, expectations point to a dramatic shift in momentum, with altcoins not only outperforming Bitcoin but also driving some of the most explosive gains in the crypto space. Bitcoin dominance, which has acted as a fortress, could weaken significantly, signaling that the balance of power is temporarily favoring innovation over consolidation. When that moment arrives, it will mark the true beginning of altseason, a phase defined by opportunity, volatility, and the raw speculative energy that has always characterized the crypto markets.

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Introduction: A Defining Moment for Digital Assets

The crypto market has entered a historic phase in October 2025, with total capitalization hitting a new all-time high of $4.26 trillion. Bitcoin itself reached a staggering $125,000 per coin, solidifying its dominance as the leading digital asset. At the same time, statements from global leaders, shifts in monetary policy, and landmark adoption news from China are reinforcing the idea that crypto is no longer an alternative market but the new financial backbone.

Bitcoin at New Heights

The rise of Bitcoin to $125,000 reflects more than just speculative interest. It demonstrates an unprecedented demand for hard digital assets in an era of monetary expansion and weakening confidence in traditional systems. Historically, Bitcoin has been described as digital gold, but today, it has transcended that narrative to become the benchmark for the entire decentralized economy.

Institutional flows, ETFs, and custody solutions are giving investors safer and more regulated pathways to access Bitcoin. This, combined with macroeconomic uncertainty, is driving Bitcoin to a trajectory that could continue to outperform other assets in 2025.

Market Cap Breakthrough

The total crypto market cap reaching $4.26 trillion is not merely a milestone—it signals the arrival of crypto as a recognized global asset class. For comparison, this valuation places crypto alongside major stock exchanges and sovereign bonds, proving that decentralized networks are capable of storing and growing wealth at the largest scale.

Altcoins, although currently underperforming relative to Bitcoin, stand to benefit massively once capital begins to rotate. Previous cycles have shown that when Bitcoin consolidates after sharp moves, liquidity often flows into high-quality altcoins, creating outsized returns across the board.

Geopolitical Endorsement and Policy Shifts

Perhaps the most groundbreaking development comes from political leadership. A statement from the U.S. President declaring that the traditional financial system is broken and that crypto will be the solution represents a seismic policy shift. This sentiment, once confined to grassroots crypto communities, is now entering mainstream politics and governance.

Such recognition not only validates the industry but also accelerates adoption, as governments and regulators race to keep up with both innovation and public demand. With trillions in potential stimulus and monetary easing on the horizon, crypto is set to be a primary beneficiary of the coming wave of liquidity.

China’s Historic Move Toward Bitcoin and Crypto

The news that China now allows its citizens to own Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies marks a turning point in global adoption. For years, China has been seen as a barrier to crypto growth due to strict restrictions. This policy reversal represents the fall of one of the largest obstacles in the market’s path.

With over a billion people gaining access to crypto ownership, the scale of potential demand is unprecedented. It opens the door not only to retail adoption but also to technological and financial innovation, as Chinese firms reenter the blockchain ecosystem. This development cements the idea that global adoption is no longer optional—it is now inevitable.

Institutional Pathways and ETFs

Over thirty altcoin ETFs have already been filed with the SEC, signaling massive institutional interest in diversifying beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. The presence of ETFs not only increases accessibility but also reassures traditional investors about custody, compliance, and liquidity.

As these products receive approvals, capital will pour into altcoins with strong fundamentals, fueling a new wave of growth. Combined with global quantitative easing and favorable political environments, this creates the perfect storm for explosive gains across the crypto spectrum.

Conclusion: Irreversible Momentum

The alignment of record market performance, supportive political statements, historic adoption from China, and institutional infrastructure paints a picture of a market that cannot be ignored. Bitcoin’s surge to $125,000 is symbolic, but the larger narrative is that crypto is becoming the default system for value, trust, and innovation.

With trillions in liquidity set to enter, the stage is set for altcoins to rally 10x to 50x, Bitcoin to potentially reach new heights, and the crypto market to solidify its position as the financial system of the future.

The biggest wall has fallen, the highest milestone has been reached, and global adoption is now irreversible.
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Decentralized Finance, or DeFi, has emerged as one of the most revolutionary innovations in the blockchain ecosystem, reshaping how people interact with money, assets, and digital systems of trust. It represents a fundamental shift away from centralized intermediaries and toward programmable, permissionless networks where users maintain full control over their financial activities. By combining transparency, automation, and security through smart contracts, DeFi is not just reimagining finance—it is rebuilding it from the ground up.

At the heart of DeFi’s transformation is the idea that financial transactions do not require banks, brokers, or third parties to verify and process them. Instead, decentralized protocols running on blockchains such as Ethereum, Solana, and others handle these functions autonomously. This enables users to lend, borrow, trade, and earn yields in an open, global marketplace accessible to anyone with an internet connection. In doing so, DeFi removes the friction, cost, and bias often embedded in traditional financial systems, unlocking a more inclusive and borderless economy.

One of the most prominent use cases in DeFi is asset management. Through decentralized platforms, individuals can manage and grow their digital portfolios without handing custody to centralized institutions. Automated portfolio rebalancing, yield farming, and liquidity provision are executed by smart contracts that operate transparently, allowing users to track every transaction on-chain. This trustless nature means that users do not have to rely on opaque systems or human discretion; instead, code governs the flow of capital.

The concept of lending and borrowing within DeFi has also become a cornerstone of the ecosystem. Platforms such as Aave, Compound, and MakerDAO have created decentralized money markets where anyone can supply liquidity to earn interest or borrow against their holdings. Unlike traditional banks, which require identity verification and credit scores, DeFi lending is entirely collateralized and operates through smart contracts that automatically enforce the terms of the agreement. This structure democratizes access to capital while maintaining robust risk management through transparent algorithms.

Decentralized Autonomous Organizations, or DAOs, represent another profound advancement within the DeFi landscape. These are community-governed entities that operate without centralized leadership, relying instead on collective decision-making encoded in blockchain protocols. DAOs enable participants to propose, vote, and implement changes transparently, fostering a new model of cooperative governance. They serve as the backbone for many DeFi protocols, allowing stakeholders to steer project development, treasury management, and protocol upgrades in a decentralized way.

The rise of stablecoins has further accelerated DeFi’s adoption by bridging the volatility gap that often characterizes cryptocurrencies. These tokens are pegged to stable assets, such as the US dollar, and provide a reliable medium of exchange within decentralized systems. Stablecoins enable seamless cross-border payments, collateralization for loans, and a foundation for DeFi applications that require price stability. Their presence ensures that DeFi remains practical and usable, even as broader crypto markets fluctuate.

Beyond finance, blockchain-based gaming has started merging with DeFi principles to create play-to-earn economies where users can generate real value through digital ownership. These ecosystems reward players with tokens, NFTs, or in-game assets that can be traded or staked in DeFi protocols. This fusion of entertainment and decentralized finance illustrates how DeFi’s principles extend far beyond money—it is a digital infrastructure for all forms of value creation and exchange.

Infrastructure tooling forms the technical backbone that supports all these applications. Decentralized oracle networks, layer-2 scaling solutions, and cross-chain bridges ensure that DeFi platforms remain efficient, secure, and interoperable. These tools allow data to flow seamlessly between blockchains and external sources, enabling more sophisticated financial products such as decentralized derivatives and synthetic assets. Through these innovations, DeFi continues to evolve into a more interconnected and scalable ecosystem.

Derivative trading within DeFi introduces complex financial instruments like perpetual futures and options without relying on centralized exchanges. Smart contracts facilitate transparent settlement and risk management, allowing traders to hedge, speculate, or leverage positions in a permissionless environment. Decentralized exchanges, commonly referred to as DEXs, further empower users by removing the need for centralized custody and providing instant peer-to-peer trading with liquidity pools governed by automated market makers.

Data analytics has also become vital to the health of the DeFi ecosystem. On-chain analytics platforms help users evaluate risk, monitor liquidity, and understand market movements across decentralized protocols. By making data publicly available, these systems reinforce the principle of transparency that defines DeFi. They empower participants to make informed decisions and contribute to a more accountable and efficient marketplace.

As the decentralized revolution advances, DeFi continues to challenge traditional notions of finance and trust. It offers a vision of a world where individuals, not institutions, hold the keys to their wealth, where financial services are not privileges but rights accessible to all. While risks remain—such as smart contract vulnerabilities and regulatory uncertainty—the momentum of innovation is unstoppable. DeFi is more than a technological trend; it is the foundation of a new digital economy, one where transparency, autonomy, and inclusivity shape the future of global finance.
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As October trading heats up, Brazil’s largest investment bank, BTG Pactual, has made a bold call through its crypto arm, Mynt, highlighting five cryptocurrencies it believes are best positioned to gain in the coming weeks.

Market Backdrop

The timing couldn’t be more favorable. With U.S. interest rates easing, anticipation of new ETF approvals, and strong inflows into spot products, institutional capital is steadily flowing into crypto. Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average has just breached $53,000, with realized price sitting above it at $54,000 — a historically bullish signal.

The Five Picks

Bitcoin (BTC): Still the institutional anchor. September saw more than $3.5B pour into BTC spot ETFs, while corporate treasuries added 43,000 BTC (~$5B). Mynt sees Bitcoin as the “pillar” of any long-term portfolio.

Ethereum (ETH): Dominating on-chain finance. ETH anchors stablecoin volume and real-world asset tokenization. Spot ETFs added $11.3B in the last six months, with corporate treasuries stacking 816,000 ETH in September.

Solana (SOL): Surging with speed and scalability. For the third straight month, SOL processed $100B+ in DEX volume while its TVL topped $30B. Analysts highlight institutional anticipation for spot SOL ETFs.

Avalanche (AVAX): Leveraging enterprise adoption. AVAX saw daily transactions climb 46% and stablecoin transfers jump 421% last quarter. Its subnet architecture remains a core differentiator.

Sky (SKY): The rebranded MakerDAO. With nearly $8B USDS in circulation, a 4.75% Sky Savings Rate, and a $77M token buyback program, SKY is seen as a DeFi token with solid revenue generation and long-term potential.

The Bigger Picture

BTG Pactual’s selections underscore a shift in focus from short-term speculation to tokens with institutional flows, strong fundamentals, and real-world utility. While some analysts warn of cycle fatigue, Mynt’s research suggests the bull market may just be gaining momentum.

With trillions in liquidity expected from macro easing, plus 30+ altcoin ETF filings in play, October could prove to be the launchpad for the next leg of the crypto supercycle.
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The crypto market is entering one of its most favorable macro environments in years. Multiple catalysts are aligning that could trigger a historic capital inflow into digital assets:

Federal Reserve Policy: Two more rate cuts are expected in 2025, signaling looser monetary policy and cheaper liquidity.

Fiscal Stimulus: Trump is planning a $2,000 direct stimulus, a move that could inject consumer capital back into risk assets, including crypto.

ETF Expansion: Over 30 altcoin ETFs have been filed with the SEC, marking a significant step toward mainstream adoption and institutional inflows.

Quantitative Easing: The resumption of QE means fresh money printing, with trillions in liquidity set to enter global markets.

With these forces combining, the conditions are ripe for a massive altcoin explosion. Analysts are already projecting potential 10x–50x gains across select tokens, especially those benefiting from ETF exposure and strong on-chain fundamentals.

The narrative is clear: the next major leg of the bull run could be led by altcoins, fueled by a perfect storm of monetary easing, fiscal expansion, and institutional adoption.
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