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The U.S. Federal Reserve has proposed a revised structure for limited payment accounts, known as 'skinny' accounts, which have been sought after by crypto firms. According to CoinDesk, these accounts offer a lighter version of the master-account services provided to fully-fledged banks, allowing firms to clear and settle payments more efficiently. The proposal, which opens for a 60-day comment period, follows an earlier request for information in December. The Fed's new proposal does not include access to intraday credit or interest on balances, and it has adjusted closing balance limits based on expected payment activity. This move comes as the Fed asks regional banks to pause certain applications while finalizing the rule.

Major cryptocurrencies rebounded during Wednesday's Asian trading session after the US Senate voted 50-47 to pass a resolution curbing President Trump's Iran war powers — easing the geopolitical uncertainty that has been one of the primary drivers of crypto's five-day losing streak and providing the first meaningful positive catalyst markets have seen since the CLARITY Act advanced through committee last week.
Bitcoin climbed to $77,200, up 0.5% since midnight UTC. XRP, Ether, and Solana each gained between 0.4% and 0.8% according to CoinDesk data — modest moves but a meaningful directional shift after five consecutive days of losses that had pulled Bitcoin back from $82,000 to near $76,000.
Why the Senate Iran vote matters for markets
The Senate's 50-47 vote to pass the war powers resolution came after seven failed attempts since the US-Iran conflict began in late February — making it a significant political development as well as a market catalyst. The conflict and its disruption to the Strait of Hormuz have been among the primary drivers of oil's 66% surge since February, which in turn has fed into the inflation re-acceleration narrative that pushed Federal Reserve rate hike odds to nearly 50% and triggered the recent wave of Bitcoin ETF outflows.
Wednesday's vote does not end the conflict but signals meaningful Congressional pushback against its continuation — enough to move oil and bond markets noticeably. WTI crude futures fell 0.75% to $103.42, pulling back from the $108 levels seen earlier in the week. Yields on the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes fell by more than two basis points each. Nasdaq futures rose 0.33%. The combination of lower oil, lower yields, and higher equity futures provided the risk-on backdrop crypto needed to snap its losing run.
Trump's Fed payment services directive adds crypto tailwind
Adding to Wednesday's positive sentiment, President Trump on Tuesday directed the Federal Reserve to review how depository institutions may be granted access to payment services — a development with direct implications for the crypto industry, which has long struggled to secure stable banking relationships and integrate into the traditional financial system.
"Wider access to payment rails and depository services can improve institutional confidence, liquidity, settlement efficiency, and long-term adoption," said Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets. The directive stops short of mandating any specific outcome but signals White House interest in removing the banking access friction that has constrained crypto firms' ability to operate within regulated financial infrastructure.
FOMC Minutes: The Next Catalyst
With the geopolitical pressure easing modestly and sentiment stabilizing, markets are now focused on the April FOMC minutes scheduled for release at 18:00 UTC on Wednesday — the most important scheduled macro event of the week for crypto markets.
"The April FOMC meeting minutes are due Wednesday at 18:00 UTC and will be parsed for how persistently above-target inflation is being weighted against growth risks," said Dessislava Ianeva, analyst at Nexo. Markets will be looking specifically for any language suggesting Fed committee members discussed rate hikes rather than simply holding — a hawkish signal that could reverse Wednesday's early risk-on move. Conversely, any indication that the committee views current inflation as manageable without further tightening would be read as dovish and could extend the crypto rebound into the US session.
The Bigger Picture: Fragile Recovery
Wednesday's bounce is welcome but needs context. Bitcoin is recovering from a five-day slide that erased all gains from the prior week and saw $1.5 billion exit spot Bitcoin ETFs since May 7. The Binance Fear and Greed Index sits at 40 — firmly in Fear territory. Polymarket still gives a 65% probability that Bitcoin falls to $75,000 this month. And the underlying ETF flow, CVD, and options data that pointed to further downside earlier this week have not yet reversed.
The Senate's Iran vote and the Fed payment services directive are genuine positive developments. Whether they are enough to shift the trend or merely provide a brief reprieve before the next test of $76,000 support will become clearer once the FOMC minutes land at 18:00 UTC.

Anthropic has committed to investing nearly $45 billion in Elon Musk's SpaceX over the next three years for computing resources. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting this expanded agreement aimed at bolstering Anthropic's Claude AI software. The substantial investment underscores the growing demand for advanced computing capabilities to support AI development. This partnership reflects the increasing collaboration between AI companies and tech giants to enhance technological infrastructure.

The CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 97.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged by June. According to Jin10, there is a 2.7% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. By July, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 87.2%, with a 2.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 10.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike.

On May 20, 2026, 17:28 PM(UTC). According to Binance Market Data, BNB has crossed the 650 USDT benchmark and is now trading at 650.549988 USDT, with a narrowed 1.56% increase in 24 hours.

Bitcoin has dropped from $82,000 to $77,000 since May 15. US Treasury yields are hardening. The MOVE index — which measures implied volatility in Treasury notes and serves as a barometer for global financial stress — has jumped from 69% to 85%. By any conventional measure, this is an environment where options traders scramble to buy protection, pushing implied volatility sharply higher.
That has not happened. Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index is hovering around 42% — just above its year-to-date low of 40% — and the disconnect between that reading and the stress visible everywhere else in markets is the setup that volatility traders are now watching closely.
Why low implied volatility matters here
Implied volatility measures the market's expectation of future price movement embedded in options prices. When uncertainty rises — falling prices, stressed bond markets, geopolitical escalation — implied volatility typically rises with it as traders bid up the cost of options protection. The fact that Bitcoin's BVIV has remained near 2026 lows despite a $5,000 decline, massive ETF outflows, and the fastest repricing of Federal Reserve rate expectations in years suggests the options market may be underpricing the actual risk brewing beneath the surface.
"In the options market, BTC IV is historically low: implieds have compressed to the high-30s/low-40s, printing new 2026 lows. That's cheap vol in absolute terms," said Jean-David Péquignot, Chief Commercial Officer at Deribit, the world's largest crypto options exchange with more than 70% of global crypto options market share.
The trade: long straddles ahead of macro catalysts
Low implied volatility is not inherently bearish or bullish for Bitcoin's price — but it does create a specific opportunity for volatility traders. When options are cheap relative to the actual uncertainty present in the market, buying volatility through strategies like straddles becomes attractive.
A straddle involves simultaneously buying both a call option and a put option at the same strike price and expiry date. The call profits if Bitcoin's price rises significantly; the put profits if it falls. Buying both removes the need to predict direction — the trade profits from a large move in either direction, making it a pure bet on volatility expanding from its currently compressed level.
"BTC vol being this cheap while price is at a key breakout level can be a good setup for long vol and long straddle positioning ahead of a macro catalyst such as the next CPI print or a Fed speech," Péquignot said.
The Catalysts That Could Break The Calm
The macro calendar provides several upcoming events capable of resolving the current tension between low implied volatility and elevated real-world uncertainty. Wednesday's April FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC are the most immediate — any language suggesting Fed committee members discussed rate hikes rather than simply holding could trigger a sharp directional move in Bitcoin. The next CPI print, Warsh's first public communications as Fed chair, and any developments in the US-Iran situation each represent potential catalysts that could rapidly close the gap between what options markets are pricing and what the macro environment is signaling.
The MOVE index's jump from 69% to 85% is a particularly important reference point. Treasury volatility at that level has historically preceded periods of elevated volatility across risk assets — and Bitcoin, which has become increasingly correlated with macro conditions following the institutionalization driven by spot ETF launches, is unlikely to remain insulated from that stress indefinitely if it continues to build.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin's implied volatility near 2026 lows while prices are falling, bond markets are stressed, and geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated is an unusual and potentially short-lived condition. For directional traders, the $76,000 support level remains the key line to defend. For volatility traders, the current compression in BVIV — with high-impact macro catalysts on the immediate horizon — represents one of the more clearly defined setups the options market has offered this year.
The calm before the storm is typically when straddles are cheapest. Whether the storm arrives from the upside or the downside, the options market appears to be underpricing the probability that it arrives at all.

Bitcoin's failure to break above its 200-day moving average near $83,000 has revived fears of another brutal leg lower. But K33 Research argues the current setup is fundamentally different from the crashes of 2014, 2018, and 2022 — and that the very pessimism weighing on prices may be the strongest argument against a collapse of the same magnitude.
In a Tuesday report, K33 head of research Vetle Lunde said derivatives data points to "uniquely pessimistic sentiment" that more closely resembles conditions seen at market bottoms than the leverage-fueled rebounds that preceded prior cycle crashes.
Why this cycle is different: 81 days of negative funding rates
In previous Bitcoin bear markets, the pattern was consistent. Bitcoin rallied aggressively back toward its 200-day moving average before rolling over sharply. Those rebounds were driven by rapidly rebuilding leverage and bullish positioning that eventually collapsed under its own weight — producing the violent second legs lower that defined the 2018 and 2022 crashes.
That dynamic has not emerged this time. Bitcoin's 30-day average funding rate has remained negative for 81 consecutive days — approaching the longest such streak on record — meaning derivatives traders have consistently leaned bearish even as prices recovered from February's lows near $60,000. Rather than rebuilding bullish leverage into the recovery, traders have remained defensively positioned throughout, removing the fuel that powered prior cycle collapses.
"The current slow grind has not produced such a dynamic," Lunde wrote. "Derivatives data instead points to uniquely pessimistic sentiment."
CME Bitcoin futures basis has also dropped below 2.5% on an annualized basis — a level K33 associates with periods of extreme caution among institutional participants. Together, persistent negative funding and near-zero CME basis paint a picture of a market that has refused to get excited about any recovery attempt — a posture that, counterintuitively, reduces the risk of a leverage-driven breakdown.
The Warning Signs: Elevated Open Interest and ETF outflows
K33 was not without caution. Lunde flagged two risk factors that warrant monitoring even within the firm's constructive overall framework.
Open interest across Bitcoin derivatives remains elevated, meaning a further price weakening could trigger another volatility event as positions are forcibly closed. The pattern of the past two weeks — where $677 million and $607 million in long liquidations occurred on consecutive multi-day selloffs — illustrates how quickly elevated open interest can translate into cascading forced selling.
Bitcoin ETF outflows have also accelerated sharply, reaching $1.6 billion over five days as prices softened near the $83,000 resistance zone. K33 pointed to a specific dynamic driving those outflows: historically, investors tend to sell more aggressively when prices recover back toward their breakeven level after prolonged drawdowns. With many Bitcoin ETF holders having entered near the $83,000 area — close to the average cost basis of the ETF holder cohort — the proximity of prices to that level triggered a wave of break-even selling that amplified the outflow figures.
K33's Base Case: February's $60,000 Low as The Cycle Bottom
Despite the near-term warning signs, K33's proprietary indicators continue to resemble the constructive conditions seen during the March to April 2025 period — when Bitcoin bottomed amid the Trump tariff rollout before rallying to fresh all-time highs — more than the bear market rallies that preceded prior cycle crashes.
The firm's base case remains unchanged: Bitcoin's February slide toward $60,000 marked the maximum drawdown of the current cycle, and the market is not replicating the structural conditions that produced the much deeper crashes of prior downturns.
"The less aggressive bull market of 2025 sets the stage for a more moderate bear market in 2026," Lunde wrote. A cycle that peaked with less extreme leverage and euphoria than 2021 is producing a correction with less extreme leverage unwind and capitulation than 2022 — a symmetry that supports K33's view that the worst is already behind the market even as near-term conditions remain uncomfortable.
What It Means for Traders
K33's framework offers a specific lens through which to interpret the current market environment. The persistent negative funding rates that have frustrated bulls for 81 consecutive days are not just a sign of bearish sentiment — they are structural evidence that the leverage overhang that causes catastrophic second-leg collapses has never fully built up in this cycle. That does not mean prices cannot fall further in the near term. It does mean the probability of a 2022-style collapse — where Bitcoin fell 75% from peak to trough — appears significantly lower given the current positioning setup.
For now, $76,000 remains the critical support level to defend in the near term, with $74,000 to $75,000 as the next meaningful floor. But K33's analysis suggests that even if those levels are tested, the structural conditions for a catastrophic breakdown are absent in a way they were not during prior cycle bear markets.

Anthropic is projected to more than double its revenue in the second quarter, reaching $10.9 billion, marking a significant milestone as the company anticipates achieving profitability for the first time. According to Jin10, the company expects to generate an operating profit of $559 million in the second quarter. These figures were disclosed to investors during an ongoing funding round, which could potentially elevate Anthropic's valuation beyond that of OpenAI. These projections highlight the rapid rise of the startup, which was previously lagging in the AI race, and challenge the conventional view that substantial spending by AI companies hinders short-term profitability.

Nvidia's Chief Financial Officer has announced that the company expects its tax rate for the fiscal year 2027 to be between 16% and 18%, which is lower than initial projections. According to Jin10, this adjustment reflects a more favorable tax environment than previously anticipated.

Sui has unveiled a new feature that allows stablecoin transfers without incurring gas fees. According to NS3.AI, this innovation is integrated at the protocol level, ensuring that users can send stablecoins without the usual transaction costs. Institutions like Fireblocks are reportedly already utilizing this feature. Sui emphasized that this is not a temporary subsidy but a permanent solution aimed at businesses and AI agents.

SpaceX, owned by Elon Musk, has announced plans for the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, revealing comprehensive financial details of its operations in rocket launches, satellite broadband, and artificial intelligence. According to Jin10, the prospectus submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday reported sales of $4.7 billion in the first three months of this year, with an operating loss of $1.9 billion. Post-IPO, Musk will hold 85.1% of the voting rights. The company also plans to engage in mining activities on near-Earth asteroids. The documents further indicate that Anthropic will pay SpaceX $1.25 billion monthly until May 2029. Although the size of the offering and proposed valuation have not been disclosed, media reports previously suggested that SpaceX had discussed raising approximately $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. SpaceX will be listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SPCX.

Nvidia's Chief Financial Officer has noted the particularly strong growth momentum in the model layers of Anthropic and OpenAI. According to Jin10, this observation underscores the rapid advancements and increasing complexity in AI model development by these leading companies. Nvidia, known for its powerful GPUs that are widely used in AI applications, continues to play a significant role in supporting the infrastructure needed for such advancements.

SpaceX has announced plans to publicly launch a range of financial products that will include payment, banking, and other financial services. According to Jin10, the company aims to expand its offerings beyond its current aerospace and technology ventures, potentially entering the financial sector with innovative solutions. This move could position SpaceX as a competitor in the financial services industry, leveraging its technological expertise to offer new services to consumers.

SpaceX has announced that its integrated AI platform, which includes Grok and X, surpassed 1.3 billion active users over the past 12 months ending March 31. According to Jin10, this milestone highlights the growing adoption and integration of AI technologies within SpaceX's ecosystem.

SpaceX is set to go public on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the ticker symbol SPCX. According to Jin10, this move marks a significant milestone for the aerospace company, which has been privately held since its inception. The listing is expected to attract substantial interest from investors eager to participate in the company's growth and innovation in the space industry. SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, has been at the forefront of space exploration and commercial space travel, making headlines with its ambitious projects and successful missions. The decision to list on Nasdaq is anticipated to provide the company with additional capital to further its development and expansion plans.

Wall Street firms have revised their price targets for Nvidia, setting them between $270 and $325, following the company's fiscal Q1 2027 earnings report released on May 20. According to NS3.AI, these adjustments were made despite Nvidia's loss of access to the H20 market in China in April 2025, which was not factored into the recent revisions.

Nvidia's stock (NVDA.O) turned positive in after-hours trading following the announcement of its first-quarter revenue and second-quarter revenue forecast, both of which surpassed average market expectations. According to Jin10, the company's financial performance has been well-received by investors, leading to a positive shift in its stock price.

Nvidia's stock experienced a decline of more than 3% in after-hours trading following the release of its earnings report. According to Jin10, the company's financial results did not meet market expectations, leading to the decrease in share value. Investors are closely monitoring the situation as Nvidia's performance is considered a key indicator in the tech sector.

Alibaba's Qwen 3.7 Max-Preview made its debut on Arena AI on May 14, achieving a global ranking of 13th in text. According to NS3.AI, Alibaba announced that the Plus variant of Qwen 3.7 will be open source, while the Max flagship version will remain proprietary. A full release of the Max version is anticipated following the Cloud Summit on May 20.

The White House has briefed Anthropic, OpenAI, and other companies on a voluntary 'pre-release model assessment' plan, according to The Information. This initiative aims to ensure responsible AI development and deployment by encouraging companies to evaluate their models before public release. The briefing underscores the administration's commitment to fostering safe and ethical AI practices.

The Federal Reserve staff assessed the economic conditions during a recent meeting, noting that the available information indicated a rebound in real GDP growth for the first quarter as the effects of the federal government shutdown gradually dissipated. According to Jin10, trade data up to March showed that net exports were a major drag on U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter. While goods exports strongly rebounded from a decline in the fourth quarter of 2025, the increase in goods imports was more pronounced, driven by a rise in high-tech goods imports.

Hunter Biden has introduced Bitcoin as a payment method for his artwork on his official website. According to NS3.AI, the website's footer now prominently displays the message 'BITCOIN ACCEPTED.' Additionally, the site includes a link to Verisart Authentication, a service that offers blockchain-based certificates of authenticity for artworks.

U.S. President Donald Trump defended his diplomatic approach towards Iran during a tense conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to NS3.AI, Netanyahu expressed strong criticism of the proposed agreement aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Despite the opposition, Trump emphasized his commitment to pursuing a deal. He also warned that Iran might face additional strikes if the negotiations do not demonstrate increased flexibility.

VerifiedX has launched vBTC.b on the Base platform, supported by Fireblocks. According to NS3.AI, this new offering is described as a non-synthetic Bitcoin asset that allows for native Bitcoin redemption. The launch on Base aims to provide DeFi users with greater access, while the Fireblocks listing is designed to meet the self-custody needs of institutional investors.

Securitize has announced a record revenue of $19.5 million for the first quarter, driven by the expansion of tokenized assets under management, which reached $3.4 billion as of March 31. According to NS3.AI, the transaction volume for Q1 was $1.9 billion. The quarter also saw a collaboration with the New York Stock Exchange for tokenized ETF securities and a new integration with Uniswap Labs for BlackRock's BUIDL fund.

Federal Reserve officials considered the March employment figures as an indication of stabilizing labor market conditions by the time of the April meeting. According to NS3.AI, analysts interpret this shift as a factor contributing to a more hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve.

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has called for the elimination of federal income taxes for the bottom 50% of earners in the United States. During a CNBC interview on May 20, 2026, Bezos argued that the majority of tax revenue already comes from high earners, with the top 1% paying 40.4% of all federal income taxes in 2022, according to BeInCrypto. He highlighted a New York City nurse earning $75,000 annually and paying over $12,000 in taxes as an example of the burden on middle-income earners. Bezos emphasized that eliminating taxes for the bottom half would cost the Treasury a small fraction of total receipts but would be significant for individual households. He also criticized Washington's spending habits, suggesting that the focus should be on spending reform rather than increasing taxes on billionaires.

SpaceX has announced plans to permit the phased early release of shares before the expiration of the 180-day lock-up period. According to Jin10, this phased release will be linked to the company's profitability, stock price, and specific time milestones.

CME Group is set to begin trading Bitcoin Volatility futures on June 1, following the contract's certification by the CFTC on May 14. According to NS3.AI, the BVI contract will be settled based on the CME CF Bitcoin Volatility Index Settlement, which is a 30-day implied-volatility benchmark derived from CME Bitcoin and Micro Bitcoin options order books. This new product is intended to allow trading desks to manage or hedge against anticipated Bitcoin market fluctuations without directly speculating on the cryptocurrency's price.

The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes reveal that most participants believe policy tightening may be necessary if inflation remains above 2%. According to ChainCatcher, this sentiment reflects ongoing concerns about inflationary pressures and the need for potential adjustments to maintain economic stability.

The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting reveal that many policymakers are leaning towards removing the easing bias from their policy statements. According to ChainCatcher, this shift suggests a potential change in the central bank's approach to monetary policy, reflecting a more cautious stance amid evolving economic conditions.

The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes reveal that the economic outlook from Fed staff is slightly stronger compared to the March meeting. According to ChainCatcher, this update reflects a modest improvement in economic projections.

Chip manufacturers across the globe, from South Korea to Silicon Valley, are facing a period of increased volatility. Wall Street Journal (Markets) posted on X, highlighting the recent fluctuations in the semiconductor industry. This sector, which has seen significant gains in recent years, is now encountering challenges that are affecting stock performance.
The semiconductor industry has been a critical driver of technological advancements, with chips being integral to a wide range of products from smartphones to automobiles. However, recent market conditions have introduced uncertainties, impacting investor confidence and leading to fluctuating stock prices.
Analysts suggest that several factors are contributing to this volatility, including supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions. These issues have led to concerns about the future growth prospects of chip manufacturers, despite the ongoing demand for their products.
Investors are closely monitoring the situation, as the semiconductor industry plays a pivotal role in the global economy. The outcome of these challenges could have significant implications for technology sectors worldwide.

SpaceX announced that on January 13, 2026, its board of directors approved the issuance of 1 billion shares of performance-based Class B common stock as restricted stock units to Elon Musk. According to Jin10, this decision reflects the company's commitment to incentivizing its leadership through equity-based compensation tied to performance metrics. The grant aims to align Musk's interests with the long-term success and growth of SpaceX.

The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting reveal that participants generally believe that ongoing high inflation and uncertainties surrounding the Middle East situation may necessitate maintaining the current policy stance for a longer period than initially expected. According to Jin10, the discussion emphasized the challenges posed by persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions, which could impact economic stability and policy decisions. The meeting underscored the importance of closely monitoring these factors to determine the appropriate duration for maintaining existing monetary policies.

Six congressional candidates supported by Fairshake emerged victorious in Tuesday's primaries, benefiting from over $20 million in backing from the crypto industry. According to NS3.AI, all five Republican winners had previously secured endorsements from U.S. President Donald Trump. Despite the significant financial support, Fairshake did not focus its advertising on digital assets in these races, leading to questions about the actual influence of cryptocurrency on the election outcomes.

U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed confidence that the ongoing situation with Iran will be resolved shortly. According to NS3.AI, Trump stated that the issue would conclude 'either way,' indicating a swift end to the current tensions. His remarks come amid ongoing diplomatic efforts and geopolitical developments concerning Iran.

South Korea's Producer Price Index (PPI) for April recorded a monthly increase of 2.5%, marking the highest level since February 1998. According to Jin10, the annual PPI rate reached 6.9%, the highest since October 2022.

SpaceX has achieved a significant milestone with its Starlink project. According to Jin10, as of March 31, the company has approximately 9,600 Starlink broadband and mobile communication satellites in low Earth orbit. This development marks a substantial expansion in SpaceX's satellite network, enhancing global internet connectivity.

SpaceX anticipates that advancements in space exploration will lead to transformative breakthroughs capable of reshaping industries on Earth. According to Jin10, these developments are expected to create new markets worth trillions of dollars on the Moon, Mars, and other celestial bodies.