Atking90

Crypto Twitter declared October 6th as the cycle peak. They called for an 84% crash, a confirmed bear market, and the end of the run. But the actual data tells a completely different story.

Every major indicator that accurately signaled the tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021 is silent today.

Pi Cycle Top: No trigger
MVRV Z-Score: 1.07, one of the most oversold readings ever
Puell Multiple: Still below 1, suggesting undervaluation

The truth is simple: the moment $63 billion in ETF inflows absorbed whale selling without breaking market structure, the old retail-driven cycle ended. The classic pattern of halving, retail mania, high leverage, and 80 percent crashes no longer defines Bitcoin.

We have shifted into an institutional regime.

Halving remains important, but volatility is dampened. Corrections are 20 to 30 percent, not catastrophic collapses. Even in November, when ETF outflows reached a record 3.79 billion dollars, the structural bid stayed intact. BlackRock continues to hold 777,000 BTC. Fidelity added another 170 million dollars on November 25th. Institutions never stepped away.

Historically, halving peaks occur 12 to 18 months after the event. We are now 19 months in, and the window for a macro top is still open.

Two conditions would confirm a real cycle peak:

1. Sustained ETF outflows exceeding 2 billion dollars weekly for at least four weeks

2. Bitcoin falling below 80,000 dollars by Q1 2026

Neither condition is present.

The 4-year cycle is dead only as a retail phenomenon. It has evolved into an institutional accumulation framework.

Calling for a bear market at 91,000 dollars assumes either a collapse in conviction or a failure in the system itself. Neither has occurred.

Bitcoin’s structure remains intact, and the new era is unfolding in real time.

#bitcoin #CryptoUpdate #MarketNews #BTCInsights #BitcoinWarnings

The S&P 500 is an index of the 500 largest U.S. companies (think Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google/Alphabet, Tesla, Meta, Nvidia, etc.). Together these firms make up roughly 80% of the U.S. stock market’s value. In other words, instead of tracking 500 stocks one by one, traders often watch the single S&P 500 chart as a proxy for the U.S. economy. It’s widely regarded as *“one of the best gauges of U.S. equities, the stock market, and the American economy”* – essentially the “heartbeat” of the market.

Because the S&P 500 companies are global giants, their performance sets the tone worldwide. Their combined strength or weakness often signals whether investors are feeling optimistic or nervous. In fact, the S&P 500 “serv[es] as a bellwether of economic performance,” capturing about 80% of U.S. equity market value. When these big companies grow profits and sales, global markets tend to rise; when they stumble, markets often fall in fear. Put simply, the S&P 500 asks: Is the economy strong or weak? Are investors confident or cautious? Is money flooding into risk assets or flowing out? Its answers ripple through stocks, bonds – and yes, crypto.

What Moves the S&P 500?

Major U.S. and global data releases can jolt the S&P 500 (and crypto) almost instantly. Key factors include:

Inflation reports (CPI/PPI): Higher-than-expected inflation can push stocks down (and vice versa). For example, when U.S. CPI inflation in Sept 2025 came in below forecasts, S&P 500 futures jumped roughly +0.7% on the news, as traders priced in easier Fed policy.

Fed interest-rate decisions: The Federal Reserve’s policy shifts heavily influence stocks. In late 2025, markets rallied on growing bets that the Fed will cut rates in December. Conversely, when the Fed was hiking in 2022, both stocks and crypto fell sharply. In short, rate hikes tend to dampen all “risk on” assets, while cuts/reversals tend to boost them.

Economic growth data (GDP, consumer spending, etc.): Strong growth figures usually lift sentiment, while weakness can trigger sell-offs. Historically, U.S. real GDP growth and the S&P 500 have often moved in sync (e.g. both crashed in 2008 and rallied after the COVID-19 recession).

Labor market/job reports: Tighter labor markets (low unemployment, solid job gains) can be a double-edged sword. They reflect a healthy economy, but also suggest the Fed may stay hawkish. For instance, in Sept 2025 a drop in U.S. unemployment claims combined with higher GDP estimates actually pushed the S&P 500 down ~0.5%, as investors grew uncertain about the pace of future rate cuts.

Corporate earnings: Quarterly results from S&P 500 companies can move the index up or down, especially if major tech or financial firms surprise on revenues/profits.

Geopolitical/market-moving news: Events like wars, trade disputes or political crises can quickly swing markets. (Think of how stock markets sell off on war fears or other shocks.)

Whenever any of these drivers change, the S&P 500 often reacts immediately. And because crypto is closely tied to overall market sentiment, crypto tends to follow suit a moment later. In short: when U.S. stocks jump on good news, crypto often pumps; when stocks tumble on bad news, crypto usually dumps hard.

How the S&P 500 Affects Crypto

Crypto is not an isolated asset class – it’s a risk-on asset much like tech stocks. Over the past few years, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have become more correlated with equity markets. For example, CME Group analysis shows Bitcoin’s rolling correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq has risen sharply since 2020 (roughly around +0.5). During periods of market stress the alignment is even stronger: when investors panic (e.g. early 2020 COVID crash or late-2022 downturn), Bitcoin and stocks fell together as everyone fled risky assets.

Crypto as a “twin” of risk assets: In practice, when the S&P 500 rises (Fed easing, good economic news, etc.), investors feel confident and pour money into high-risk bets – and crypto often surges. Conversely, when the S&P 500 drops (higher rates, bad news, fear), investors pull back from risky assets and crypto typically crashes harder. Traders often say things like “BTC will pump if S&P stays strong” or “Altcoins die if S&P breaks support” – and it’s not exaggeration. The underlying reason is liquidity and risk appetite.

Correlation evidence: Studies and market data confirm the link. CME’s research noted that during panic sell-offs “Bitcoin and equities move in the same direction, reflecting a risk-off sentiment”. Likewise, Bankrate reports that in 2022, as Fed rate hikes pushed rates higher, “cryptocurrency prices struggled,” but once the Fed paused and cut rates in 2023–2024, crypto bottomed and then rose with the stock market. In other words, crypto largely follows the same cycle of tightening and easing that drives the S&P 500.

The net effect is that crypto’s fortunes closely track equity market moods. If U.S. investors are eager to take risk, both tech stocks and Bitcoin surge. If fear grips the market, everything from Binance coins to altcoins often underperforms relative to the safe havens.

Liquidity & Fed Outlook: Why Stocks and Crypto Trade Together

A big reason for this linkage is liquidity. Both stocks and crypto rally when central banks ease and liquidity is ample, and vice versa. Right now (late 2025) markets are fixated on the Fed’s next move. With the Fed meeting on December 9–10, 2025, investors are increasingly confident that a rate cut is coming. In fact, CME’s FedWatch tool shows roughly an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point cut that meeting.

History suggests such cuts flood markets with liquidity, igniting rallies in risk assets. As one analyst put it in late 2025, Wall Street’s recent gains were “fairly strongly” driven by the belief that the Fed will cut rates in December. In practice this means U.S. stocks are at or near record highs, and those gains tend to “spill over” into crypto. Many traders bet that “if the S&P 500 stays strong with Fed easing, BTC and altcoins will pump, too.” Conversely, if key support on the S&P breaks, crypto often crashes faster on the way down.

Put simply: when money flows into equities (the S&P 500 goes up on good news or easier money), that same liquidity often spills over into crypto, sending Bitcoin and major altcoins higher. And when risk-off conditions suck liquidity out of markets (S&P 500 goes down), crypto gets hit even harder. This high-level correlation (often 50% or more in recent years) means keeping one eye on the S&P 500 gives you a pretty good read on crypto’s near-term mood.

Key Takeaway: The S&P 500 isn’t just “stocks.” It’s a gauge of global risk sentiment. Because crypto is effectively a high-beta risk asset, it tends to mirror what happens in U.S. markets. So as our Binance Square community (and traders atking90) have seen, watching the S&P’s moves – especially around Fed policy, inflation, and major economic data – is like watching a mood ring for crypto. In times of Fed easing or strong data, crypto usually rallies; in times of Fed tightening or bad news, crypto usually retreats.

Stay sharp and keep an eye on that S&P 500 chart – it’s the pulse of the market, and right now it’s flashing signals for both stocks and crypto.

Congratulations – you just learned a new way to read the crypto market! Keep following Atking90 on Binance Square for more insights.
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