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President Donald Trump signed a bill on Wednesday to end the longest government shutdown in US history, shortly after the House voted 222–209 to reopen key federal services.
The legislation restores food aid, pay for federal workers, and air-traffic operations.
Most Republicans backed the measure with Trump’s support, while Democrats opposed it, frustrated that the shutdown ended without a deal to extend federal health insurance subsidies for low-income Americans that are scheduled to run out at year’s end. Democrats received a pledge to hold a Senate vote on the subsidies, but no assurance of Republican backing.
Data releases resume, but gaps remain :
With the shutdown ending, federal statistical agencies are set to resume releasing vital data reports. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Census Bureau will restart regular publication schedules.

Key releases expected include nonfarm payrolls, unemployment data, initial jobless claims, and CPI and PCE inflation readings. PCE remains the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying price stability.

November’s nonfarm payrolls data is expected on 5 Dec, just days before the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets on 10 Dec. Market expectations for a rate cut have dropped, with the CME’s FedWatch tool showing a 56% probability of a 25bp cut, down from almost 70% a week ago.

Incoming data will help clear the “fog" in Jerome Powell’s phrase, ahead of the FOMC decision. Policymakers must weigh the labour market against still elevated inflation. CPI stands at 3.0% and PCE remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.
Fed officials have expressed mixed views :
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president and CEO Raphael Bostic said that inflation progress has been uneven and that risks around price stability still require caution. He added that labour market indicators do not yet show a clear cyclical downturn.

In a speech in Boston, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said there should be a "high bar" for further easing, signalling support for holding rates steady “for some time.”

Governor Stephen Miran, a recent Trump appointee, argued for cuts of 25 to 50 basis points, aligning closely with the White House’s preference for more aggressive easing.

All signs suggest the December vote will be tight. If rates remain unchanged, borrowing costs would stay elevated, tightening liquidity and weighing on risk assets such as crypto and high-yield credit.
Trump’s proposed tariff dividend adds uncertainty :
To make the FOMC’s job more difficult, Trump has proposed a $2,000 “tariff dividend.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said payments would likely go to families earning under roughly $100,000, although the threshold is still under discussion.

A fiscal stimulus package of this scale could heighten FOMC caution, given the inflationary effects of prior transfer programmes during the pandemic. Those payments were one of several drivers of the early inflation surge before supply constraints and energy prices amplified it.

Market expectations reflect the uncertainty. Interest rate swap curves now imply roughly a 50% probability of a December rate cut.

Fiscal stimulus in the past has also been linked to increased liquidity in the crypto market. After the first round of pandemic checks, Coinbase and Binance reported a spike in $1,200 Bitcoin purchases, and the stimulus coincided with a retail-driven rally that sent Bitcoin from about $7,000 to over $60,000 within a year and fuelled broader growth across altcoins, NFTs, and DeFi.

On the news, US markets opened lower. Nasdaq was down by 1.58% and S&P 500 by 1.25% at the time of writing, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds was up by two basis points. Gold was flat on the day.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin was down 0.8% on the day and 1.2% over the past 24 hours, whereas Ethereum lost 3.1% over the last 24 hours.
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Dubai has conducted its first government payment using the Central Bank of the UAE’s Digital Dirham, marking the country’s initial live test of a central bank digital currency.

The transaction, completed on the Bank for International Settlements’ mBridge platform, was part of the Central Bank’s Financial Infrastructure Transformation programme to modernise payments and enable cross-border digital settlement. The payment, settled in under two minutes, was described by the Ministry of Finance and Dubai’s Department of Finance as a technical proof of concept.
A test, not a launch :
The Digital Dirham is built on a two-tier, intermediated structure in which commercial banks distribute the currency to end users. The Central Bank said it plans to explore retail, wholesale and cross-border phases in later stages, including potential features such as automated settlement and smart contract-based disbursements. No timetable has been set for a wider rollout.
The pilot follows earlier experiments by the UAE as part of the mBridge project, a multi-CBDC network linking China, Hong Kong, Thailand and the UAE to test cross-border transactions. The BIS has described the initiative as one of the largest live experiments in digital currency interoperability.
Global race for digital money :
The UAE joins a growing list of economies testing or deploying state-backed digital currencies. The People’s Bank of China continues to expand the e-CNY, the European Central Bank is developing the digital euro, and the US Federal Reserve is assessing wholesale settlement systems.

The Digital Dirham pilot reinforces the UAE’s position as an early participant in CBDC development, though it remains a limited trial. Without published metrics on transaction volume, regulatory framework or commercial participation, the test remains a small step in a longer process to integrate digital currency into the region’s financial system.

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Fresh US employment data showing renewed weakness in the information services sector have weighed heavily on tech equities this week, triggering contagion across risk assets and pushing Bitcoin back yet again to $100,000.

The softer jobs pulse, coupled with another massive wave of corporate lay-offs featuring tech firms, has unsettled investors and tempered the appetite for high-beta exposure. Tightening labour conditions have boosted expectations for rate cuts, as investors hope to rekindle the “bad-news-is-good-news” trade that historically fuels sentiment for riskier trading.

The quiet turn in liquidity :
Stealth easing is already underway. Over the final days of October, American banks received $125 billion through a central bank Standing Repo Facility, including $29.4 billion on 31 Oct alone, the largest single-day operation since the pandemic. As bank reserves linger around multi-year lows, the move quietly eased funding stress and reignited risk appetite. Meanwhile, the Sovereign Overnight Financial Rate’s (SOFR) sharp pullback pointed to improving interbank liquidity beneath the surface, contrasting with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s continued hawkish tone.
Liquidity isn‘t trickling down :
Still, this incremental liquidity has yet to reach crypto markets. The system keeps relying on internal rotations rather than fresh new inflows. Capital already committed in the ecosystem keeps circulating between tokens and narratives, driving short-lived rallies and narrowing market breadth, where a handful of assets rise while the broader market bleeds.
Adding pressure to an already tense environment, a new wave of DeFi exploits including Balancer’s $120 million breach and Stream Finance’s $93 million loss, further undermined trust and eroded participants’ appetite for risk. In response, market participants have been withdrawing assets from lending protocols, waiting for clearer market signals before redeploying capital.

ETF, DAT flows
Flows from investing vehicles such as ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and DATs (digital asset treasury companies) also show muted demand. Once dominant drivers of the first half of the year rally, spot allocations from DAT and ETFs have since turned largely silent. After more than a week of daily ETF outflows totaling over $2 billion, spot Bitcoin ETFs finally saw $240 million of inflows on Thursday, according to Farside. Prices gravitated around the $100,000 level that plays with crypto traders’ minds. 
Crypto-treasury Bitcoin holdings expanded a modest 3.7% over the past month, data from bitcointreasuries.net show, in a significant slowdown of corporate crypto stockpiling. This cooling demand leaves insufficient spot buying to absorb distribution from long-term holders, while short-term traders who are over their heads continue to unwind positions into weakness.

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The price movement of Bitcoin remains in focus, with the cryptocurrency maintaining its grip above the psychological level of 100,000.
Market information shows that there has been a consistent trading range of between 95,000 and 115,000, with analysts indicating that there is a chart pattern that has been associated with a significant breakout in the past.
Recent action resembles the consolidation observed prior to the most recent dramatic rally, which generates the expectation of more upside momentum.​
According to market observers, Bitcoin started consolidating in a downward channel after crossing the mark of $116,652, in the same manner in which it had done after it hit the mark of $67,559.
The historic consolidation periods resulted in a straight shot of strong surges, which justifies forecasts that the existing arrangement would drive BTC to 165,000 and beyond.​
Fundamentals Show Active Support and Predictive Bullish Signals :
The exchange reserves of BTC have started to increase following a consistent drop, reflecting the repositioning of traders before high-volume periods.
The price stands stuck at higher levels than any long-term support, such as the powerful 40-week simple moving average, further consolidating the existing bullish trend and technical confidence throughout the market.
Market activity favours a perpetual optimism with a trading volume of $114 billion, indicating that both retail and institutional investors remain active.​
As consolidation takes hold, the next impulsive move becomes cemented by major players.
JPMorgan and other banking analysts still hold that BTC can hit a realistic goal of $165,000 by year-end, assuming technical patterns repeat as expected.
Floors of about $100,000 are considered strong, and channel tops might cause huge breakouts as long as momentum exists.
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A pending US Supreme Court ruling on President Trump’s tariffs could deliver a $140bn refund to importers and bolster risk assets, including Bitcoin.
In its 31 Oct Global Risk Radar report (which has just become generally available), UBS said that if the Court deems the tariffs unlawful, the government could owe importers roughly 7.9% of the 2025 federal deficit. The case challenges Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs without congressional approval. Oral arguments were heard on 5 Nov, with a ruling due later this year or early 2026.
Policy reversal could unlock liquidity :
UBS analysts said that while the refund could create short-term fiscal turbulence, it would act as a powerful liquidity injection into the private sector. The funds would boost corporate cash flow, improve balance sheets, and spur investment and consumer spending - factors that typically strengthen risk markets.
A reduction in effective tariffs could ease price pressures that have built under the administration’s trade and immigration policies, giving the Federal Reserve more space to cut interest rates. Chair Jerome Powell recently cautioned that a December cut is not guaranteed, but softer inflation would increase the odds.
Macro ripple through crypto :
Bitcoin, which fell around 12% in October, has shown sensitivity to liquidity shifts rather than policy specifics, and is trading around $103,000 at the time of writing, reflecting continued caution in macro-sensitive assets. UBS argues that a large-scale refund would amount to modest fiscal stimulus, potentially restoring appetite for higher-risk assets such as digital currencies.
A weaker dollar and reduced trade barriers could further accelerate onchain activity. With stablecoin settlement volumes already exceeding $1tn per month, a freer trade environment may drive wider use of USDT and USDC in international commerce.
If the Court strikes down the tariffs, the administration will likely attempt to reimpose them through new mechanisms, though legal challenges could delay any response. In the interim, the refund could serve as an unlikely catalyst for digital assets, underscoring how Washington's macro moves continue to shape crypto's market narrative.
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Key Points :
David Sacks said there will be ‘no federal bailout’ for artificial intelligence.
Sacks is President Donald Trump’s artificial intelligence and crypto czar.
Sacks’ comments came after OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar mentioned a federal “backstop” during a conference.
Venture capitalist David Sacks, who is serving as President Donald Trump’s artificial intelligence and crypto czar, said Thursday that there will be “no federal bailout for AI.”

“The U.S. has at least 5 major frontier model companies. If one fails, others will take its place,” Sacks wrote in a post on X.

Sacks’ comments came after OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar said Wednesday that the startup wants to establish an ecosystem of private equity, banks and a federal “backstop” or “guarantee” that could help the company finance its infrastructure investments.

She softened her stance later in a LinkedIn post and said OpenAI is not seeking a government backstop for its infrastructure commitments. She said her use of the word “backstop” clouded her point.

“As the full clip of my answer shows, I was making the point that American strength in technology will come from building real industrial capacity which requires the private sector and government playing their part,” Friar wrote.

The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment. OpenAI directed CNBC to Friar’s LinkedIn post.

Sacks said the Trump administration does want to make permitting and power generation easier, and that the goal is to facilitate rapid infrastructure buildouts without raising residential electricity rates.

“To give benefit of the doubt, I don’t think anyone was actually asking for a bailout. (That would be ridiculous.),” he wrote.
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Trump announces deals with Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk to slash weight loss drug prices, offer some Medicare coverage
Key Points :
President Donald Trump announced deals with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to slash the prices of some of their obesity drugs, including upcoming pills, in a landmark effort to expand access to the costly blockbuster treatments.
The agreements will lower prices of GLP-1 drugs on Medicare and Medicaid and offer the treatments directly to consumers at a discount on a website the Trump administration is launching in January 2026 called TrumpRx.gov.
The deals are among the most politically significant announcements to date in the Trump administration’s efforts to rein in high U.S. drug costs by tying them to the lowest prices abroad.
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Key Points :
The U.S. Supreme Court appears skeptical that Trump tariffs are legal.
Pony.ai and WeRide shares drop on their first day of trading in Hong Kong.
Snap lifts guidance and announces a partnership with Perplexity AI.
U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday stateside on the back of tech stocks.
Bitcoin “whales” look like they’re selling, which might cause prices of the cryptocurrency to fall.

#TRUMP #SupremCourthearingonTariffs #ETHBreaksATH
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Despite a multimillion-dollar effort by Wall Street to block him, Zohran Mamdani will become the next mayor of New York City, the first socialist to lead the financial capital of the world.
His victory marks a sharp break, and a widening divide between the city’s business establishment and its voters.
Executives and financiers are now weighing how far his campaign promises might go once in office. Some have offered tepid congratulations, while others are sounding the alarm.

Who is Zohran Mamdani?
Once a political outsider, the 34-year-old state legislator built a brand and a coalition around affordability, housing, and public services. With 5.7 million followers on Instagram, Mamdani ran a social media-driven campaign that struck a chord with younger residents.

His support swelled among New Yorkers frustrated by rising costs and stagnant incomes. Mamdani pledged to raise the top corporate tax rate from 7.25% to 11.5%, impose a 2% levy on millionaires, freeze rents on stabilized apartments, and fund free public buses and city-run grocery stores.

Data from Columbia University show that one in four New York City residents lives in poverty. The city has struggled with widening inequality, persistent inflation and high crime, creating a stark contrast between its wealth and global prestige. In the election, Mamdani ran against former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat who campaigned as an Independent, and received support from most of the city’s business community.
Business meltdown
The finance industry, long intertwined with city politics, reacted with a mix of disbelief and pragmatism.

“Now you have a big responsibility. If I can help NYC, just let me know what I can do,” Bill Ackman, chief executive of Pershing Square Capital Management, said in a conciliatory post on X. Ackman spent about $2mn opposing Mamdani’s campaign and worked to rally Wall Street executives against him.

Others were less restrained. Cliff Asness of AQR Capital posted an image from the film Planet of the Apes showing a ruined New York skyline. Crypto investor Anthony Pompliano wrote that it was “insane that a socialist was just elected mayor of the financial capital of the world.”

Mamdani’s agenda has unsettled not only Wall Street but also the city’s real-estate developers, many of whom fear a chill on investment. Some private equity firms are already modeling the financial impact of higher taxes and weighing relocations to Florida, Texas or Tennessee.

The months ahead will test whether Mamdani can ease fears of capital flight while delivering on his promise to make New York more affordable for the middle and working classes. For Wall Street, his election has underscored an uncomfortable truth: this time, money could not buy City Hall.

#politics #MarketPullback #UsaElections #TRUMP
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