Rei Researcher

Bitcoin: Exchange Supply Is Shrinking Sharply

cryptoquant_com Exchange Reserve data shows a clear trend: as $BTC price rises, the amount of #Bitcoin held on major exchanges is declining significantly.

The drop in reserves reflects stronger long-term holding behavior from long-term holders, institutions, and whales. With liquid supply on exchanges decreasing → natural selling pressure is lower even as price has risen substantially.

Compared to the 2020–2021 cycle (when price increases often came with rising reserves due to retail FOMO), the current phase reflects a more mature market, influenced by Spot #ETFs and greater awareness of the risks of holding $BTC on exchanges.

$BTC is currently trading at around ~$77.6K, yet reserves continue to decline rather than rebound.

This signals that supply-demand dynamics are tilting toward tighter supply conditions compared to previous cycles.

BTC Market Sentiment

According to CryptoQuant funding rate data across exchanges, rates have been persistently negative, indicating that the crowd is leaning toward SHORT positions, with dominant sentiment being fear + disbelief.

Meanwhile, data shows that long-term holders have almost stopped selling and have accumulated a net 309k $BTC. In other words, retail investors are bearish.

Smart money is re-accumulating. This is a typical structure of a “disbelief rally setup”: when the majority doesn’t believe in the upward move yet, but supply pressure has already started to contract.

BTC is currently in a late correction / early re-accumulation phase — not yet an euphoria top, nor resembling a panic bottom.

Current sentiment is not bullish. But the capital flow structure is less bearish than it appears on the surface. This is the kind of market that easily leaves the majority positioned incorrectly.

#BTC #bitcoin #Onchain

The #Bitcoin supply on #Binance is still sharply decreasing

Based on the Exchange Reserve chart on #Binance from cryptoquant_com
, we can see that the Bitcoin supply on the exchange continues to decrease significantly, while demand is increasing, which could lead to a price increase trend after the market has bottomed out.

👉 When the supply decreases at market bottom levels, this could be due to investors holding onto Bitcoin instead of selling and transferring it to personal wallets for storage, making the market more scarce, even though $BTC is inherently scarce. This often leads to a sharp price increase in the next bullish cycles.

🔑 The relationship between #supply and price shows that when supply is constrained, higher demand drives up the value of $BTC .

🔍 Check the details in the chart and predictions for the next trend!

NRPL (Net Realized Profit/Loss) – What is this indicator telling us about the market?

NRPL measures the net value between realized profits and losses on-chain.

- Large positive spikes often appear near short-term tops → periods of strong profit-taking
- Deep negative spikes usually coincide with stress or bottom zones → signs of capitulation / panic selling

Recently, NRPL has been contracting around a neutral zone after a period of strong negative volatility, which often signals a region near the bottom.

NRPL is not used to “predict price,” but to understand who is under pressure — those in profit or those in loss.
When combined with price structure and liquidity, this metric provides clearer insight into whether the market is in accumulation or distribution.

Liquidity on Binance is making a comeback.

Two on-chain charts from CryptoQuant signal something:

- The number of stablecoin (ERC20) deposits to Binance has recently experienced a strong surge, at one point reaching nearly 85,000 transactions per day – the highest level in several months.
- The total stablecoin reserves on Binance have steadily increased to $47.7 billion, showing signs of recovery after a prolonged decline.

This indicates:

- Capital is flowing back into major exchanges.
- When more stablecoins are deposited into Binance, it typically reflects that investors and traders are preparing to take long positions. This is not just random money flow – actual liquidity is being added.
- After a long period of sideways movement, the simultaneous increase in both deposit transactions and stablecoin reserves is one of the most reliable on-chain signals that new capital is entering the market.
- Will this capital flow be strong enough to push the market into a new acceleration phase?
- Monitor spot volume and on-chain data closely in the coming weeks.

Margin Borrow Interest Rate (Binance)

The current margin borrowing interest rate for $BTC is only ~0.008% — an extremely low level compared to the peak of nearly 0.18% in 2024-2025. $BTC is currently trading around 75.27k.

- US inflation is projected to rise to 3.3% (March 2026), primarily due to sharply increased energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions and the Strait of Hormuz conflict.

- The Fed is keeping interest rates at 3.5-3.75%, with expectations of only limited cuts this year.

Low margin interest rates indicate limited market leverage, reflecting cautious sentiment amidst a macroeconomic environment that hasn't truly eased.

🚨 AAVE CRISIS: Exchange Reserve Soar as Token Drops to Around $91

cryptoquant chart shows a sharp increase in $AAVE spot trading reserves — clearly due to distribution and selling pressure from holders.

This is caused by the $292 million Kelp DAO rsETH cyberattack that created massive bad debt ($200 million) on Aave V3, pushing the utilization rate to 100% and triggering a massive $6.6 billion outflow.

$AAVE remains the largest lender in DeFi, but this liquidity shortage is exposing real weaknesses.

Caution if you are at risk.

🚨 $RAVE (RaveDAO) Update – Classic Pump & Dump Case

Last week, $RAVE exploded ~4,500%, skyrocketing from under $0.30 to nearly $28. Many people FOMO’d in.

However, on-chain data showed clear red flags:

- Top 100 wallets control 97% of the total supply (extremely risky)
- Tens of millions of RAVE tokens were transferred in bulk from Bitget Deposit to Main Wallet in just 1-2 days (see attached images)
- On-chain investigator zachxbt exposed suspicions of insider manipulation

Result: The price has crashed over 95%, now trading around $1.20.

This is a textbook example of how a token heavily controlled by whales can be pumped hard and then dumped, leaving retail investors as exit liquidity.

Data via nansen

Two notable positions from this whale wallet on HyperliquidX

The short position on $BTC has yielded significant profits, indicating good timing and clear macroeconomic analysis.

However, the short position on $HYPE is incurring heavy losses, meaning this trader is either trading early, expanding into a broader argument, or still expecting a major reversal from here.

Donald J. Trump has posted a statement saying that Iran has announced the Strait of Hormuz is fully open and ready for normal passage.

If this is officially confirmed, it could be a major development for regional stability, global shipping, and energy markets, as the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important maritime routes.

Bitcoin: Exchange Whale Ratio - All Exchanges

The chart from cryptoquant shows the relationship between the price of Bitcoin and the Exchange Whale Ratio (the ratio of the top 10 inflows compared to the total inflow into exchanges).

Currently, the price of $BTC is around 74.7K USD, while the Whale Ratio has significantly increased compared to previous levels.

A high ratio indicates that whales are making up a larger portion of the total inflow into exchanges. On the other hand, a lower ratio typically reflects activity mainly from retail investors.

Historical data shows that sharp increases in the Whale Ratio often occur during significant price fluctuations of #Bitcoin

On-chain Stablecoin (ERC20) analysis from cryptoquant

Total exchange reserves are currently sitting at around $68B, down from a peak of nearly $75B in late 2025. Stablecoin liquidity on exchanges is still strong, though it has cooled off a bit.

The number of addresses depositing stablecoins to exchanges has also picked up at several points recently, which may suggest sidelined capital is preparing to move.

$BTC is currently trading around $75,000.

Since bottoming near $14B in 2023, exchange reserves have risen almost 5x. Historically, periods of elevated and steady stablecoin reserves have often created a supportive backdrop for the next leg up, even if market sentiment remains somewhat cautious for now.
#stablecoin #CryptoQuant #Onchain

Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will be permanently reopened after a deal with China.
China is expected to halt weapon shipments to Iran in exchange for restoring maritime trade. Trump said this could benefit the global economy and plans to meet Xi in the coming weeks to finalize it.
The U.S. still signals readiness for military action if needed.

go go go

While most of the market is watching price, smart money is paying more attention to supply.

$ETH Exchange Supply Ratio has dropped to historical lows since 2016, indicating that the amount of $ETH held on exchanges is gradually shrinking. This often reflects that potential sell pressure is no longer as high as before. When more $ETH is moved onto exchanges, it usually signals potential supply ready to be sold.

Price has not shown a clear reaction yet, but on-chain data is often a useful indicator to watch ahead of price movements. If demand improves, $ETH could see notable movement from this zone.

#Ethereum #ETH #Onchain #SmartMoney

Why I’m Watching Leverage and Funding Right Here

I usually watch Estimated Leverage Ratio and Funding Rate together.

Right now, Estimated Leverage Ratio is still around 0.22, which tells me leverage across the market is still pretty high. A lot of traders are still positioned pretty aggressively.

At the same time, Funding Rate is pretty deeply negative, and the funding EMA is still moving further down in negative territory. That tells me shorts are still in control and still paying longs.

When funding is this negative while market-wide leverage stays high, I lean toward the idea that the market is getting a bit over-shorted. And if we get a positive catalyst from here — for example, something constructive out of the US-Iran talks — there’s a decent chance of a short squeeze that snaps price back up.
$BTC #OnChain

Is ETH quietly tightening supply?

ETH Exchange Reserve (supply on exchanges) has declined from around 35M ETH to 14.9M ETH → a drop of nearly 57%.
Traders are currently showing more of a holding tendency rather than sending ETH to exchanges to take profit or cut losses. The remaining ETH supply on exchanges is now significantly lower compared to the 2020–2021 period.
ETH Inflow to exchanges has increased recently, but the scale is still clearly lower than the peaks seen in 2021–2022 (the previous cycle top).
Past spikes approached the 10M–20M ETH range, while recent clusters are notably smaller compared to those previous cycle peaks.
Based on the data:
ETH Reserve dropping sharply = less ETH readily available for selling on exchanges
Inflow not surging like previous cycles = no signs of extreme deposit pressure (panic selling)
These two charts suggest that ETH’s supply structure on exchanges remains relatively tight:
reserves have dropped significantly, while inflows have not returned to extreme levels seen during prior major distribution phases. Price is currently moving near the lows of previous correction ranges. This may be considered a constructive signal under current conditions.
#ETH #Ethereum

- Open Interest has dropped sharply from a peak of around $43 billion at the end of 2025 to about $22–23 billion and is now at its lowest level in many months. The decline in OI while BTC price has moved only slightly shows that the total amount of leverage in the market has decreased significantly.

- Along with that, the Funding Rate is currently negative, indicating that pressure from sellers is higher than from longs. This is also the lowest level seen in many months, reflecting cautious sentiment and a lack of momentum from leveraged traders.

- In recent weeks, the market has been going through a deleveraging phase. Falling OI together with a negative funding rate is a signal that leveraged positions are being adjusted significantly. BTC is still maintaining within the 70.6k price range. Historically, declining OI and a negative funding rate could very likely be the foundation for a new recovery rally. However, we still need to monitor further geopolitical developments, as they may continue to have a major impact on the market.
#btc #Onchain

Bitcoin and U.S. Capital Flows: Is the Market Quietly Re-Accumulating?

In recent days, Bitcoin data combined with the Coinbase Premium Index has been showing a notable shift in the structure of capital flows.

The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price difference of Bitcoin on Coinbase compared to international exchanges. When the index is positive, it reflects stronger buying pressure from U.S. investors, typically institutional players.

In a bullish scenario, if the Premium Index continues to remain positive and strengthens steadily, the market could enter a new uptrend.

The data is sending a clear signal: smart money is showing signs of returning, but the market is still in a preparatory phase. This could be an important transition period, where long-term positions begin to be built ahead of the next major trend.
$BTC #onchain

Bitcoin is in an interesting spot right now: price has recovered back to the $72.5K area, but funding rates are still negative.

Historically:

• 2017–2018: funding was extremely volatile and highly speculative
• 2020–2021: funding stayed strongly positive, the market was overheated, and long squeezes were common
• 2022: low/negative funding came with a major market downturn
• 2023–2024: funding was moderately positive, rising and cooling off in cycles

At the moment, funding is no longer overheated. That suggests long leverage has been flushed out, short-term speculative sentiment has cooled, and the derivatives structure looks more balanced.

This is not an outright bullish signal yet, but it also does not resemble the kind of euphoric extreme seen in 2021. Most likely, the market is in a cooling-off or rebalancing phase rather than being excessively hot or deeply fearful.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto