Javeed Dhuka

We finally know why the market crashed on October 10
20 Billions vanished in seconds, but no one could explain why
I spent weeks analyzing liquidity, MM data and bankrupt funds
Here’s what really happened and why the market can’t bounce👇

❒ Do you remember October 10?
❒ The day the market crashed abnormally without any bounce
❒ Liquidations reached nearly $20B, the scale of the move looked unreal
❒ At that time no one could explain what exactly caused the drop unlike now

❒ Back then we assumed the drop was triggered by
1. Trump's tariff decisions
2. Binance manipulations and market maker pressure
3. Whale activity and local liquidity rotations between segments
❒ All of these had some impact but did not explain the scale or speed of the dump

❒ The real reasons only become clear after analyzing the cycle structure
❒ The entire market in 2024-2025 was supported by two main sources of demand
- ETF flows
- DAT companies
❒ It was the DATs that systematically and aggressively bought $BTC and became net buyers forming the basis of the positive trend

The DAT mechanism operates through an index system that amplifies their growth
❒ The larger the company the higher the chance of entering leading indexes
❒ Passive funds automatically buy its shares according to the index weight
❒ This increases capitalization and triggers the next demand expansion cycle

But on October 10 the model took a critical hit from MSCI
❒ MSCI published a document that questioned the status of DAT companies
❒ It raised the issue of whether they are "companies" or effectively "funds"
❒ This category change is not technical but a potential shift in market logic

❒ If DATs are recognized as funds they will not be eligible for inclusion in passive indexes
❒ Passive indexes do not include structures with a self-reinforcing buying model
❒ MSCI directly points to the undesirable loop a fund grows because the index buys it
❒ This contradicts the basic rules of index inclusion and risk assessment

❒ MSCI's decision will be announced on January 15, 2026 and will set the trend for the year
❒ If the decision is negative DAT companies will be excluded from all relevant indexes
❒ Passive funds will be required to automatically sell their shares in large volumes
❒ This would mean a structural outflow of liquidity independent of market sentiment

❒ It is this document not local news that explains the reaction on October 10
❒ Smart money understood the risks and started reducing exposure that very day
❒ The selloff was not emotional it was a rational assessment of future risk
❒ The liquidation cascade followed as a consequence of a technical move
❒ The absence of a bounce looks logical if you understand the nature of the risk
❒ This is not about individual trades but about a potential removal of an entire class of buyers
❒ DATs provided the main part of capital inflows in this cycle
❒ If they lose index status their demand will simply stop

❒ If MSCI makes a negative decision the market will brace for massive selloffs
❒ The pressure will continue until year-end when structures begin rebalancing
❒ The scale of the sell-off could be the largest since the start of the entire 2024-2025 cycle
❒ And it will be mechanical driven by index rules not emotions

❒ If the decision is positive the risk will be lifted almost instantly
❒ DATs will retain company status and therefore the right to be part of passive indexes
❒ Their buying model will remain valid and institutional demand will resume
❒ In this case the market will get a clear signal of a phase shift toward growth

❒ So the drop on October 10 is a structural reaction to institutional risk
❒ The market reassessed future sources of demand not current prices or news
❒ It all comes down to MSCI's decision which will define the architecture of the next cycle
❒ This decision will determine whether we see a recovery or a further correction
#BTCRebound90kNext? #USJobsData #IPOWave #CPIWatch #ProjectCrypto
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