懂币猫

#美股 #BTC

In the last two months, I’ve barely made any gains from crypto contracts
But I'm still sitting at the top of the annual profit leaderboard
What does that indicate?

It’s pretty straightforward; it shows that making money in crypto is tough right now
Other crypto traders aren’t raking it in either, or else I wouldn't still be in first place

For half a year, I've been urging everyone in my streams to trade U.S. stocks
I spend almost half of each stream discussing U.S. stocks, gold, and silver
When I first started streaming, I even shared my returns from U.S. stocks, and they were on par with my crypto performance

Through my streams and trading teachings, I’ve always hoped everyone could earn more and walk the right trading path with solid trading principles. Recently, I’ve noticed there are hardly any discussions about U.S. stocks in the plaza; such a great market is getting little attention, and it honestly feels disheartening

As traders, when the conditions are right, we must avoid being dogmatic and be more adaptable
I often say that traders should be like water: flexible and variable, not like an old pigeon
At the same time, we need to learn to allocate our funds wisely, pursuing the easier profits in more active markets

Here's how I allocate my positions and time:
Crypto 40%
U.S. Stocks 40%
A-shares 5%
Gold 5%
Some treasure fund 4% (barely takes time, buy and forget)
Wealth management 3% (barely takes time, buy and forget)
Others 3% (barely takes time, buy and forget)

Now, all major platforms have U.S. stock contracts available, just fire up your exchange app
Head into the contract section
In the dropdown menu, find #TradFi , which is filled with recently popular U.S. stock contracts

Brothers, explore more and don’t let yourselves get trapped in an information cocoon

Back on top of the annual leaderboard

#海力士 #南方两倍做多海力士

Going long two times in the South leads to a collapse in Renesas Electronics (Hailix/Hitachi?) -31.7%
An absolute long-side panic

Will you add leverage and keep trading leveraged ETFs in the future?

#韩国 #SNDK #SOX

Cut off the profits—let the losses run 😅😅😅😅

Look at the highlights in the picture—what did you find?

My goodness, this is how retail investors trade/operate! I get it now!
With unrealized losses of a million, there’s no heartbeat; with an unrealized gain of a hundred hands, you’re trembling

#海力士

Carrying a boat to find a sword can sometimes really get people killed.

For SK hynix’s bull market, every pullback follows a pretty regular pattern: after each doubling, it usually retraces by about 20%. The first time: -20%. The second time: -24%. The third time: -26%. The fourth time: -35%.

I know many friends will follow the previous drawdown of around -20% to bottom-fish, betting that the bull market isn’t over—just a normal pullback. This really is a great strategy, commonly known as “buy the dip.” But if you add leverage and the pullback exceeds past norms, you need to be prepared for your capital to be cut in half.

This time it dropped 35%, far more than the usual normal retracement. The brothers in the screenshot who are simply “carrying a boat to find a sword” this time are likely to be heartbroken.

#海力士 #三星

Hynix (SK hynix) opens with a sharp plunge of -11%

From the beginning of the month until now, it’s been a nice rest

Tonight, #闪迪 #美光 #semiconductor continues to be under pressure—the money for the second half of the year is indeed very hard to make

#止损

Let’s continue talking about yesterday’s stop-loss topic.

Many people actually understand the logic of stop-loss. But in reality, at the exact moment when people should stop out, when the time truly calls for action, they start to hesitate. Countless images flash through their minds, and inside they struggle with multiple thoughts:

Why take a stop-loss? What if the market goes better after I stop out?
This market is just trying to shake me out—I have to hold on!
Stop-loss is right, but this time I’m absolutely sure the market will come back!
That stop-loss level isn’t good. I need to move my stop-loss level!
Today’s market is a panic market—don’t let panic push you out.
.....................................................

At the moment right before taking a stop-loss, traders have countless reasons to interfere with their own decision. The reasons are all kinds of strange and varied. However, the fundamental cause behind all of it is only this:

They believe that taking a stop-loss will cost them.

Is that right?

#止损

When it comes to stop-loss, many friends always get stuck and wonder: how exactly should it be set? Sometimes they end up not setting one at all. In essence, the key to stop-loss isn’t about how many points you obsess over every day.

The key to stop-loss is this:
How decisively you can execute the stop-loss.

Further:
No matter how many points your stop-loss is set at, don’t obsess—first ask yourself:

1 point
2 points
3 points

As long as you can do this: cut off losses.

What matters about stop-loss is having the logic right, not chasing some perfect entry/exit point. There is no perfect stop-loss level in the world. As long as the stop-loss helps us stay in the game, then that is the best stop-loss.

#BTC

Everyone is asking about the question of when BTC volatility will break out. I modified the Bitcoin candlestick chart from the previous post to a daily chart, and overlaid the Dungbi Mao trend-following strategy. Just take a look at the chart and it’ll be clear.

First time
In January 2026, volatility was at an extreme. The trend strategy went short, and then it fell by 30%.
Second time
In March 2026, volatility was at an extreme. The trend strategy went long, and then it rose by 25%.
Third time
In May 2026, volatility was at an extreme. The trend strategy went short, and then it fell by 25%.
Fourth time
In July 2026, volatility is moving closer to the extreme range, and after that, it should be another good opportunity.

I did it for the first and second times. For the third time, I was trading U.S. stocks and I’m currently waiting for the fourth opportunity.

#BTC

Bitcoin’s fourth major opportunity of the year: the rolling-over opportunity is brewing

In 7 months of 2026, Bitcoin has had 3 clear profit-taking and rolling-over opportunities

In January, Bitcoin price was 90,000, with volatility at 0.09
In March, Bitcoin price was 66,000, with volatility at 0.13
In May, Bitcoin price was 77,000, with volatility at 0.10

All three times were at the extreme points of volatility. After that, a smooth uptrend began. This is exactly what I often call the best opportunity to grow capital with a small amount of money.

Entering July: current volatility is 0.16 and is rapidly declining. This is also brewing another excellent doubling opportunity for small capital. Keep an eye on the volatility strategy and our trend-following strategy. At the most extreme low point of volatility, combined with the trend-following strategy, many friends will have another good outcome this time.

#A股 #科创版

The STAR Market index fits the category of technical analysis very well

Previous high level
Pullback under pressure
Break above the previous high
Retest, then make a new high

The stock market (Main Board A) this year’s performance really isn’t any worse than the U.S. stock market, though the worst one is still Bitcoin—crypto has been a big pile of trash throughout this year

If ordinary people can’t figure out which individual stocks to buy, then buy an index—buy an ETF—choose the right index and hold it long-term

Brother, not taking responsibility for the order is the basic trading principle: if you don’t carry the position, you die nine times; the last time also ended badly. There’s a very, very small chance of a downward drop of 50%. This is a trading plan—no matter what kind of trend, there’s a corresponding plan. Don’t you really think that just buying here and there can make you a million in a year?

Experts all die from bottom-picking. Don’t you know about holding positions under pressure and black swan events? Wasn’t last year’s 1011 still fresh in everyone’s mind? If you got stuck and you have resentment, then when I called for reducing positions at the highs and controlling risk, and I also issued a short-selling signal—but you didn’t leave. Don’t put the blame for your own mistakes on other people. Even though blaming others feels better and more relieving, it does nothing for your trading, and you’ll never make progress.

Human nature is very hard-pressed to admit its own mistakes, but trading is exactly about starting from admitting mistakes (stop-loss).

Today live stream summary

Memorize it, and keep it in mind.

We will not easily guess how the market will run in the future. We respect the current price, because the price already includes all known information.

We will absolutely never bet everything on holding any market move to the bitter end. We will always follow the price action.

Is this going to replay the market trend from this March?

*Rub rub* my little hands—I’m so excited!

In just 40 short days, our Korean friends returned to the starting point. At that time, everyone was still immersed in the excitement of the World Cup about to begin, and in the days when the stock market could keep soaring.

Trade needs to be done one deal at a time, wave after wave.

Making a fortune with a single deal is like running a lottery business—that’s not trading.
#海力士 #三星 #闪迪 #美光 . It has already dropped 30%. The probability of it continuing to drop another 50% is very, very small. The profits stored by these companies are already locked in for next year. If you were to go short with a large position at this time, it basically equals joining the National Revolutionary Army in 1949.

But for now, it can still only be treated as a range-bound market. The bigger trend still needs more time.